ESPN insider reveals which conference is the most susceptible to going away

With some major college football realignment changes in the near future, like Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC and USC and UCLA leaving the Pac 12 for the Big 10, many are suspecting the creation of a small group of “super conferences” soon. But where does this leave the conferences that shrinking and losing teams, and will see the end of an era for certain conferences?

College football insider Pete Thamel was asked on SEC This Morning if the Pac 12 conference was potentially in danger of this, and if they were the most susceptible to going away.

“I would think so only because they’re not tied to a grant of rights right now. The ACC has a 14-year grant of rights, which is a very strong legal document. There’s really no precedent for someone [to get out] … that doesn’t mean somebody may not try in the next 14 years, but I don’t know if they’re going to try in the next four weeks,” Thamel said.

Thamel also added that once USC and UCLA leave the Pac 12, that the conference will have to do some soul searching as far as what move will be next for them as they strive towards financial stability.

“The Pac-12, what’s working against them, is their deal is up in essentially two football seasons. So USC and UCLA are going to play out those seasons and walk, the same way Oklahoma and Texas are playing out their time in the Big 12 and are going to walk,” Thamel said. “So the end of that contract, the end of grant of rights makes it a little bit of open season for them at least to pick up their head and look around and say, ‘Do I have more lucrative options?’ … because they want to get to the end of the moat where the SEC is and where, obviously, the Big Ten is financially.”

The Pac 12 will definitely have to weigh out its options and strongly consider their own value and even consider it’s other sports outside of football regarding their next steps once USC and UCLA are no longer in the conference.

“The immediate start of the negotiation is what are we worth? We just had seismic change, how are we going to evaluate what we are on the open market? And I think that gives all the schools a chance to say, ‘OK, we make somewhere around $30 million now.’ Look, they weren’t going to get SEC or Big Ten territory, but they were hoping to get somewhere in between. … Without them at the table, they’re looking at some kind of haircut. How significant is the haircut? Can you afford to send your soccer team to these places? There’s all sorts of scenarios that can unfold,” Thamel said.

Despite the Big 12 also losing two power house schools, Thamel belieives the Pac 12 is still more prone to going away due to the timing of USC and UCLA leaving their as well as the idiosyncratic state of their conference in comparison to the Big 12.

“The argument that the Pac-12 is going to have to fight is if you’re the other schools … do you hitch your wagon to Oregon and Washington, who don’t want to be there? Is that your best move long-term?” Thamel said, “The Big 12, it’s a left-handed compliment, they’re sort of bonded by the fact that nobody else wants them right now. They had a yard sale last year in the Big 12 when Oklahoma and Texas left and they looked around and everybody drove by. Nobody stopped. That has been the basis for stability. …”