Paul Finebaum predicts multiple schools will leave ACC after resolution with Clemson, FSU

Paul Finebaum believes it’s only a matter of time before we begin to see schools leave the ACC. The conference reached a settlement with Clemson and Florida State in an ongoing lawsuit regarding the league’s revenue distribution.

The settlement has resulted in the exit fees for members of the conference being reduced drastically. Beginning next year, the price to leave the ACC will be set at $165 million. It will drop by $18 million every year after that, meaning that the exit fee will fall under the $100 million mark by the 2029-30 school year.

One year after that in 2030-31, it will level out at $75 million. Speaking on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, Finebaum explained that he expects to see multiple schools leave the ACC around that time.

“If you’re the commissioner of the ACC, you have to live in the moment,” The SEC Network analyst said. “Yeah, you plan for the future. But you can’t be too hung up on five, six, seven years from now because there’s a chance you won’t be the commissioner. I’m talking about Jim Phillips. He made the best deal for the moment. He had to stop the hammer. He had to stop the bleeding. He did that, but there is a due date, as you said. When that due date comes, it is going to be open season, I believe, on the ACC.

“It’s impossible to predict today because we’re still watching Oklahoma and Texas be digested into the SEC while the four in the Big Ten are — I just saw USC and UCLA compete for the Big Ten Championship in women’s basketball yesterday and I almost did a double take. But by the time we turn the calendar toward 2030, all that will be different. I think it’s very likely that the ACC loses a couple of schools.”

ESPN noted that the timing of when the exit fee will reach its lowest coincides with the expiration of TV deals with both the Big Ten and Big 12. Additionally, the College Football Playoff is up for renewal in 2031.

Currently, any school that wishes to leave the ACC as of the time this article was written will owe $120 million. That means that they can pay roughly $45 million less if they wait until the 2030-31 school year.

“That buy out price is no big deal when you think about what it was,” Finebaum said. “It’s pretty in line with what Oklahoma and Texas paid a couple of years ago. So I think every conference, including the SEC and the Big Ten, are carefully looking down toward what happened in the ACC and trying to figure out — right now, it’s not a big item. They are way too many important issues ahead of it.

“But I don’t think there’s any doubt that the ACC put off the inevitable, and the inevtiable is losing a couple of schools in the future.”

Although the SEC and Big Ten’s acquistions this offseason gained most of the attention, the ACC added a trio of schools as well in California, SMU and Stanford. Perhaps some more work can be done to keep the league together between now and when the buyout hits its lowest. But as far as Finebaum is concerned right now, the ACC just set the date for the next big wave of conference realignment.