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Paul Finebaum predicts winner of Alabama vs. Florida State in Week 1

Untitled design (2)by: Sam Gillenwater08/25/25samdg_33
Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer, Florida State HC Mike Norvell
Jordan Godfree & Jim Dedmon | Imagn Images

The primetime game in the afternoon window of week one in college football is a matchup of No. 8 Alabama vs. Florida State in Tallahassee. Paul Finebaum, though, thinks it should go in favor of the Crimson Tide come Saturday.

Finebaum, on ‘McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning’ on Monday, previewed the game between Alabama and FSU. He agreed with Greg McElroy in thinking that at least an alright showing from ‘Bama would be enough to win, with leaving Doak Campbell Stadium with that win being all that should matter to the Tide.

“I agree (that Alabama will be fine),” Finebaum said to McElroy.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the game starts slow for Alabama. I don’t think Alabama needs to do anything spectacular other than just get out of there,” said Finebaum. “Whatever the game looks like, it will be over-analyzed – a big win or a field goal at the end. But I do feel very confident Alabama’s going to win, and this game will be forgotten quickly – as long as that is the outcome.”

Alabama, coming into year two under Kalen DeBoer, will arrive as a top-ten team, playing a team in Florida State, coming into year six under Mike Norvell, that’s been reworked on the staff and roster after disappointing last season at 2-10. That’s why the Tide enters Saturday afternoon as nearly a two-score favorite, sitting at -13.5 per the lines at BetMGM.

In breaking down the game, McElroy and Finebaum both noted a key aspect being the matchup between the Tides’ defense versus the Seminoles’ offense. FSU is difficult to scout on that side of the ball right now with the changes made to that unit, but neither knows how it’s going to look in game one under their new coordinator in OC Guz Malzahn.

“I do think there’s a little bit of ghost chasing. That’s to be expected – new offensive coordinator, new quarterback. Will they look more like Mike Norvell or will they look more like Guz Malzahn? Those two identities, philosophically, are not necessarily in line. So, what is Kane Wommack preparing for, things like that,” mentioned McElroy. “However, I still think, if ‘Bama just takes care of business, doesn’t make mistakes, they’ll be fine in this game.”

“I’m really interested in what you just eluded to. And, you can only listen to the rumor mills so long, but there’s something about Gus Malzahn and Mike Norvell I don’t get,” Finebaum answered. “I think I understand why he was hired because he’s a very smart – innovative at times, predictable at others – offensive coordinator. But, I just do not see these guys on the same page for very long, and that I think is perhaps the issue or could be the issue for Florida State.”

Alabama vs. Florida State is the headliner in the afternoon for Saturday’s official opening weekend. Still, Finebaum, along with others like McElroy, are expecting the Tide to roll in that opener against the Seminoles.