Penn State vs. Ohio State point spread: Picking Nittany Lions vs. Buckeyes

The eyes of the college football world will turn toward Columbus this week as No. 3 Ohio State takes on No. 7 Penn State at The Horseshoe. It’s a matchup with not only Big Ten title implications, but also with College Football Playoff hopes hanging in the balance for both teams.

It’s shaping up to be one of the best games of the college football season so far. The Buckeyes enter as 3.5-point favorites in the matchup, according to FanDuel, meaning the oddsmakers expect it to be a close game between the two Big Ten East contenders.

Sports Illustrated and The Split Zone Duo podcast’s Richard Johnson said he’s not just taking Penn State to cover the 3.5 points. He’s also picking the Nittany Lions to win outright.

“I’m very curious about how this one plays out,” Johnson told Andy Staples on Andy Staples On3. “If Ohio State loses this game, I think you’re gonna look back on the season and say, ‘Oh, that was coming. That was coming.’ You survived against Notre Dame. You beat Maryland, but it took you a while to get rolling there.

“Similarly, too, I think you look at USC last week and you say, ‘Oh, that was coming.’ They’ve had that in them all season. The sequencing of the games just was what it was. I think you may look back on Ohio State if they lose this game and say the same thing.”

Ohio State’s roster has plenty of playmakers, headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr. The likely top-five pick in the NFL Draft is one of the most electric playmakers in the game, and he’ll give the Nittany Lions defense headaches.

But the Buckeyes are also beat up. Emeka Egbuka missed last week’s game against Purdue, and TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t played in the last two matchups. Staples — who’s also picking Penn State outright — said Henderson is one of the biggest keys to the offense to help Ohio State establish a running game early and open up the passing game.

“I think another question is is how healthy is TreVeyon Henderson?” Staples said. “He’s missed the last couple games. They need him. They’re rushing attack is different when he’s playing. … They said he could have played against Maryland. But then, he didn’t play against Purdue, either. So yeah, a healthy TreVeyon Henderson I think makes a big difference for them.”

What’s at stake for Penn State against Ohio State

Another key part of the discussion is the quarterbacks. Drew Allar has looked solid in his first season as Penn State’s starting quarterback after Sean Clifford headed to the NFL, ranking third in the Big Ten with 12 passing touchdowns and failing to throw an interception through six games. For Ohio State, Kyle McCord leads the conference with 275.2 passing yards per game and has 11 passing touchdowns.

McCord has a marquee victory under his belt this year, helping lead a game-winning drive against Notre Dame. Allar has a chance to add a similar win to his resume, and in the process, could get Penn State out of Ohio State and Michigan’s shadow in the Big Ten.

“For Penn State, it’s not the Drew Allar legacy game. He’s a first-year starter. But this is the his chance to show that he raises Penn State’s ceiling,” Staples said. “Because Penn State is a good program that lives in a notch below Ohio State and Michigan. The only way they change where they live is they’ve got to win these games. So you got to go to Columbus, and you’ve got to take it. And the only way to do that is Drew Allar has a big game.”

As for how Penn State’s defense will attack McCord, Johnson said Manny Diaz could challenge his unit by not only having them cover Harrison, but throw all sorts of pressure at McCord.

“I also think you have a situation here where I think Manny Diaz gets to be an absolute sicko in this game,” Johnson said. “Because you’ve got corners and you’ve got DBs that you think are good enough to hold up. Now, look, No. 18’s as good as they got in college football. He could probably improve a lot of NFL wide receiver rooms, like, yesterday.

“But I think your strategy here is you go in that DB room and say ‘Fellas, you may have a bad time on Saturday, but we need you. We need you to hold up in coverage just long enough because we are going to bring the kitchen sink at Kyle McCord.’ And that’s the game plan.”