Phil Steele predicts final rankings in 2023 Big 12 forecast

Phil Steele is making his prediction for the last season of the Big 12 as we know it, with the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners on their way out.

Regardless of Texas and Oklahoma’s future, the Big 12 is looking like an exciting conference once again in 2023. Who could’ve predicted TCU and Kansas State would’ve played for the conference title in 2022, with the former going all the way to the national title game? Perhaps another Cinderella team is within the Big 12’s walls.

Moreover, some newcomers will join the longtime conference teams, as the UCF Knights, BYU Cougars, Cincinnati Bearcats and Houston Cougars are entering their first season in the Big 12. It remains to be seen if any can enter the upper echelon of the conference’s teams, but it’s going to be a joy to see some new matchups take place.

Savor this season Big 12 fans, more changes are on the way, but at least we’ll always have 2023. Here’s how Steele believes it’ll shake out when it’s all said and done in the conference.

1) Texas Longhorns

Texas showed some real promise in 2022, with quarterback Quinn Ewers showing why he’s one of the more talented recruits to come out in recent memory. However, the pressure is on in 2023, as Longhorns fans want a Big 12 title before taking their talents to the SEC.

While they’ll warm up with a game against Rice on Sept. 2, the season truly begins on Sept. 9, as Texas will face off against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 2. If the Longhorns can get a victory over Nick Saban’s team, after coming so close last season, this team may truly be able to see they’re back.

2) Oklahoma Sooners

When Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC, many believed Brent Venables was the perfect replacement. However, his first season on the job left a lot to be desired, as the Sooners finished 6-7, falling to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl to end their year.

However, Steele is a believer in Oklahoma evidently, having them as the No. 2 team in the Big 12 entering 2023. The Sooners need to show promise before they enter the SEC, and leaving with a Big 12 title will be their ultimate goal.

3) Kansas State Wildcats

The defending Big 12 champions have something to say about those who believe 2022 was a fluke. Steele isn’t one of those, as he believes the Wildcats are the third best team in the conference entering a new campaign.

Chris Klieman enters his fifth season at the helm of Kansas State, but offensive coordinator Collin Klein may be the real star. The former Wildcats quarterback took to coaching like a fish to water, and he’s only going to continue to grow in his second season on the job.

4) TCU Horned Frogs

Sonny Dykes shocked the State of Texas when he left SMU for TCU last offseason. However, it’s tough to argue with his decision, after taking TCU on an improbable run to the national title game.

While the Horned Frogs were trounced by Georgia in the finale, promise still remains for TCU to build on what was an amazing season. Dykes’ team arrived in 2022, and they’ll look to prove it wasn’t a one-time thing in 2023.

5) Baylor Bears

It wasn’t the best season for Baylor in 2022, as disappointment reigned supreme. Dave Aranda’s third year saw the Bears fall to 6-7, losing to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl to end their campaign.

Quarterback Blake Shapen is back, and many believe a bounce-back season could be on the horizon. Steele is a believer, putting the Bears among the top half of Big 12 squads entering a pivotal 2023 season for Baylor.

6) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Joey McGuire arrived in Lubbock in style in 2022, winning eight games and capping off his first season on the job with a bowl victory. That was arguably their most convincing win, as Texas Tech defeated the SEC’s Ole Miss Rebels by a score of 42-25 in the Texas Bowl.

The coach’s sophomore season on the job will bring new challenges though, including a showdown with the Oregon Ducks in Week 2. However, if Texas Tech could get past Dan Lanning’s squad, perhaps they could make a run at the Big 12 title this season.

7) Oklahoma State Cowboys

Mike Gundy is going into his 19th season with Oklahoma State, and he’ll be doing so with a new defensive coordinator in 2023. Bryan Nardo will call defense for the Cowboys, as they look to improve on a slightly disappointing 2022.

Nevertheless, Gundy’s teams are always tough, and you can’t count them out. Steele believes they’ll fit that bill in 2023, even if a conference title may not be in the cards.

8) UCF Knights

Evidently, Steele believes UCF is the best of the newbies in the Big 12. It makes sense, as the experienced Gus Malzahn is leading their team, and John Rhys Plumlee will lead the team at quarterback.

The team lost offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to the North Carolina Tar Heels, but Malzahn is confident in the abilities of his replacement Darin Hinshaw, who’s coming over from UAB. The Knights will need to score points, and they’ll likely be able to do so, which bodes well for their debut season.

9) Iowa State Cyclones

Perhaps the most disappointing team on the list, Matt Campbell’s team shocked everyone by falling to 4-8 in 2022, and winning one conference game overall. After years of NFL rumors, Campbell decided to stay, and one has to wonder if he regrets that decision.

Nevertheless, the Cyclones will be motivated to prove last season was an aberration. Nathan Scheelhaase has been promoted to offensive coordinator, and better results could be on the horizon for Iowa State.

10) Kansas Jayhawks

Lance Leipold’s rebuild effort finally yielded results in 2022 for Kansas. Quarterback Jalon Daniels was the heart of that, and he’s hungry for more in 2023.

Unfortunately, Steele isn’t a believer in the Jayhawks returning to the forefront of the Big 12, and has them as his tenth ranked team entering the season. That’s no problem for Kansas, as they’ve been doubted before. We’ll see who ends up being right.

11) BYU Cougars

Kalani Sitake is back to lead BYU for an eight season, and for their first foray into the Big 12. He’ll have a supremely talented quarterback at the helm, with the well-traveled Kedon Slovis joining the fray in 2023.

The Cougars looked good in 2022, finishing 8-5 and winning the New Mexico Bowl over SMU to cap their season. They’ll look to make an impact in 2023 during their first season in the conference, and it’s going to be fascinating to watch the Cougars attempt to do so.

12) West Virginia Mountaineers

One thing is for sure, Neal Brown is on thin ice at West Virginia entering his fifth season with the program. There were rumors of an exit throughout the offseason, but the Mountaineers opted to give their coach another shot, and he’ll be hoping to make good on it.

Graham Harrell left the team after just one season as their offensive coordinator, and Chad Scott was promoted to fill the position. Time will tell if he can get the anemic West Virginia offense rolling or not.

13) Houston Cougars

Houston finished their final season in the American Athletic Conference with a 23-16 victory over Louisiana in the Independence Bowl, capping off an 8-5 campaign. While they lost two close games over now conference opponents in Texas Tech and Kansas, they’ll be hoping to elevate their standing in their first season in the Big 12.

They have the right man leading the ship, as Dana Holgorsen enters his fifth season in charge. However, they lost offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson to the Miami Hurricanes, so replacement Eman Naghavi will be hoping to keep the offense humming in 2023.

14) Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats are a couple of seasons removed from the College Football Playoff, but their team couldn’t be more different. Gone are Luke Fickell and Desmond Ridder, and a new coaching staff led by former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield is leading the charge.

Cincinnati landed well-traveled athlete Emory Jones over the offseason, and he’ll be hoping to give the Bearcats a boost in 2023. Steele has them as the worst of the Big 12, but that could quickly change if Cincinnati strings some victories together to open the season.

As you can see, Phil Steele is high on many of the Big 12 usuals, while not believing the newcomers will have great seasons to open up their new relationship. Still, nobody expected TCU and Kansas State to be the best of the best in the conference in 2022, so it’s going to be a fun ride from now until the end of the season in the Big 12.