Phil Steele ranks Top 16 teams that will surprise in 2025 college football season

With the 2025 season on the horizon, some teams could be gearing up to shock the college football world. Phil Steele ranked his Top 16 teams who could put together surprise runs this year.

The list begins with one of the big winners in the transfer portal. Oklahoma made some big splashes ahead of an important year for Brent Venables in the Sooners’ second season in the SEC. The program notably landed former Washington State quarterback John Mateer and former Cal running back Jaydn Ott to bolster the offense.

But some other surprises could also be in the cards this season. Here are the Top 16 teams Phil Steele thinks will surprise.

1. Oklahoma

Oklahoma is taking on a new look this year with additions not only on the field, but on the sideline. Ben Arbuckle is now in as offensive coordinator and will continue working with John Mateer in the process as the Sooners look to light a spark on that side of the football.

Additionally, Brent Venables is taking back play-calling on defense for a unit with plenty of key pieces in place. The headliner is R Mason Thomas, who is sure to anchor the pass rush on a defense that will be a focal point this season.

2. Texas A&M

After winning eight games in the first year under Mike Elko, Texas A&M looks to have the pieces in place on offense to take a leap in 2025. Marcel Reed is back at quarterback after taking the starting job last season, and he’ll have an experienced offensive line in front of him.

Questions loomed on defense, though, but Texas A&M focused on that side of the ball via the transfer portal this cycle. The Aggies also face a challenging schedule, but that could be the opportunity Elko’s group needs to raise some eyebrows this season.

3. Illinois

Following a 10-win season last year, Illinois could prove to be a team to watch in the Big Ten in 2025. The Fighting Illini return plenty of key contributors, led by quarterback Luke Altmyer, and could have the makings for a special season in Champaign-Urbana.

Illinois faces Ohio State during the Big Ten portion of its schedule, but notably doesn’t have to go against Penn State, Oregon or Michigan. That slate could be key for Bret Bielema’s group as he looks to replicate – or surpass – last year’s success.

4. Utah

Last year proved to be a disappointing Big 12 debut for Utah. The Utes were picked to win the conference and ultimately finished 5-7, but Kyle Whittingham and Co. are generating some buzz ahead of the 2025 season.

Cameron Rising is out and Devon Dampier is in at quarterback for Utah, and he provided a jolt of excitement at media days last week. While the conference isn’t doing preseason polls this year, the Utes could be in position for a run in a wide open Big 12 this year.

5. USC

It’s shaping up to be a big year for Lincoln Riley. USC had an up-and-down go through its first year in the Big Ten in 2024 but struck big this offseason as it looked to reload.

The Trojans will now have Jayden Maiava cemented as the starter after last year’s uncertainty, and they bolstered the defensive front by landing former Kentucky lineman Keeshawn Silver. The defense will be crucial to USC’s success as D’Anton Lynn enters his second season as coordinator.

6. Arizona State

One of last year’s biggest surprises, Arizona State now will look to build off a College Football Playoff appearance. Kenny Dillingham has a slew of key contributors back in the fold, notably on offense.

Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson are the top two returners as they established a strong connection in 2024. While Cam Skattebo is off to the NFL with the New York Giants, Arizona State is considered a favorite in the Big 12, and Phil Steele thinks they’ll still find a way to surprise some people.

7. Nebraska

At long last, Nebraska ended its bowl drought in 2024 – and won the Pinstripe Bowl to finish 7-6. Dylan Raiola will now get ready for his second season as the Cornhuskers’ quarterback and he now has consistency at offensive coordinator with Dana Holgorsen taking the role full-time.

Raiola finished the year strong in 2024 and will once again be the focal point in Lincoln this year. Nebraska was also active in the transfer portal, landing two top-20 transfers in former Missouri EDGE Williams Nwaneri and former Kentucky wide receiver Dane Key.

8. Baylor

In a make-or-break year for Dave Aranda, Baylor came through with eight wins in 2024. That set the stage for the Bears to be players in the Big 12 in 2025, and Phil Steele ranked them eighth among teams that could surprise this season.

Baylor has been picked in the middle of the Big 12 this year, but has three important pieces back on offense. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson is back in the fold, as are his top two targets in Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins, which add to the anticipation for perhaps another leap forward this season.

9. SMU

Year 1 in the ACC was a good one for SMU. The Mustangs made it to the conference championship and still did enough to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff, but are not necessarily the pick to get back to the league title game in 2025.

That’s why Phil Steele puts SMU as a potential surprise team. Kevin Jennings is back at quarterback – a boost to the offense – but as Clemson and Miami dominate the conversation in the ACC, the Mustangs might have to become a “surprise” to return to Charlotte.

10. Iowa State

Another intriguing Big 12 team, Iowa State was likely considered a surprise team a year ago. The Cyclones were squarely in the mix for the conference title, and they round out Phil Steele’s Top 10 teams that will surprise this year.

ISU kept Rocco Becht at quarterback, which provides stability needed for a possible run through the wide-open Big 12. Matt Campbell’s group has proven to be consistent despite a rough year in 2022 and will look to build off last year’s 11 wins.

Phil Steele’s second tier surprise teams

11. Florida
12. Kansas State
13. Florida State
14. Georgia Tech
15. TCU
16. Texas Tech

Surprise teams are part of the craziness of the college football season, and the 2025 season is sure to have a few. It all gets underway next month with a Week 0 appetizer before, ultimately, a loaded Week 1 slate.