Phil Steele ranks Top 10 surprise teams for 2024 college football season

The 2024 college football season is right around the corner, and a wide variety of changes across the landscape of the sport gives the upcoming season an added feeling of excitement and parity ahead of a banner year.

From conference realignment to the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, transfer portal additions and head coaching changes, college football’s 2024 season is as tough as it gets to forecast. As numerous teams and fanbases feel like they have a shot to make the postseason and potentially take home a national championship.

There could be a fair share of surprises this season, and with that in mind, college football prognosticator Phil Steele ranked his top 10 surprise teams for the upcoming season. Which he defines as a non-preseason AP Top 10 team that he believes has a decent shot at making the College Football Playoff and potentially a national championship.

1. Utah Utes

Steele ranks Utah at the very top of his sleeper teams list heading into the 2024 season following an 8-5 finish last year. With head coach Kyle Whittingham returning for his 20th season at the helm and starting quarterback Cameron Rising returning after missing the entire 2023 season with an injury.

Prior to last season the Utes won two straight Pac-12 titles and made two Rose Bowl appearances with Rising under center. Returning as the team joins a Big 12 Conference that the Utes could potentially take over given their championship culture, home field advantage, and strength up front on both sides of the ball.

2. Clemson Tigers

Clemson being considered a sleeper team has not been the norm throughout the past decade in college football. But after not achieving double-digit wins for the first since 2010 last season and missing out on the ACC title game for the second time in the last three years, many are sleeping on the Tigers.

Head coach Dabo Swinney‘s lack of transfer portal use has been criticized, but Steele believes the team’s continuity will be a strength with numerous returning starters including quarterback Cade Klubnik. Not to mention no active coach has made more College Football Playoff appearances than Swinney now that Nick Saban has retired.

3. Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles had a standout season last year with a 13-1 finish and an ACC Championship win. But after 10 of their key players were selected in the recent 2024 NFL Draft, some find it hard to believe that Florida Stare can repeat last season’s success.

Not Steele, who spoke with FSU head coach Mike Norvell and believes this year’s squad may be even stronger than the last. As all eyes will be on transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei‘s return to the ACC after starting his college career at Clemson.

4. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State snuck into the Big 12 Championship last season following a 2-2 start to the year. Ending the season 10-4 and returning the most experienced roster in college football according to Steele.

One of those returning starters is Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon. Who led college football in rushing yards and touchdowns last season and will not have to worry about Texas or Oklahoma getting in his way this year.

5. Miami Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have been notorious for underachieving lately, not finishing within the AP Top 10 since 2003 in their glory days. But Steele and many others believe that this season could be the one where Miami gets over the hump.

Head coach Mario Cristobal enters his third season at the helm and has had a massive roster overhaul through the transfer portal with additions like Cam Ward and Damien Martinez. With his third season at his previous stop, Oregon, notably representing his strongest season in Eugene.

6. Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State ranks right outside of Steele’s top five sleeper teams. But he believes the Wildcats have a strong chance of getting to the Big 12 title game given their schedule, which could be their ticket to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Dynamic dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson returns along with 1,000-yard rusher DJ Giddens. Not to mention head coach Chris Klieman‘s experience in the FBS at powerhouse North Dakota State could work in K-State’s favor in the new-look playoff.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes

There’s no doubt that Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz gets the most out of his Hawkeye teams. Which he showed last season after leading the program to a Big Ten title game appearance despite having the worst scoring offense in the conference.

Iowa’s offense should improve with quarterback Cade McNamara returning from injury. Paired with a dominant defense that Steele expects to take zero steps back and can be particularly dangerous in a 12-team playoff if defense does still win championships.

8. LSU Tigers

LSU loses their reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and his top two wideouts from last year, all of which were selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. But Steele thinks the Tigers have the roster, and maybe more importantly the schedule, to be in the CFP mix.

The Tigers avoid matchups with Georgia, Texas, and Missouri this season, with all of their SEC road games coming against teams that had losing records last year. As quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will look to follow the footsteps of Jayden Daniels after winning his first career start and the MVP of the ReliaQuest Bowl to finish last season.

9. Virginia Tech Hokies

Virginia Tech leads off Steele’s second tier of sleeper teams who he feels have lesser odds of making the College Football Playoff and lack postseason pedigree. But third-year head coach Brent Pry has had an impressive offseason building up the Hokies roster and culture.

Dynamic dual-threat quarterback Kyron Drones returns and has the potential to take a leap as one of the most dangerous signal callers in the country. With VT’s favorable schedule also giving them a path to reach the ACC title game for the first time since 2016.

10. SMU Mustangs

Rounding out Steele’s list is SMU, who joins the ACC this season and is the fifth school from the conference to break into the top 10. Potentially representing the league with the most parity entering the season and possibilities for unexpected representation in the 12-team playoff.

The Mustangs won the American Conference last season and return many key starters at important positions. Not to mention transfer portal additions from the Dallas area that could allow SMU to make some noise in the ACC and potentially beyond this upcoming season.