Phil Steele reveals preseason 2023 Big 12 power ratings

The Big 12 was a hoot in 2022. The conference produced a Royal Rumble type of battle for the top two spots in the standings as we ultimately wound up with a TCU-Kansas State matchup. Of course, the Wildcats triumphed over the Horned Frogs, although it was TCU who made the College Football Playoff and then the national title game, becoming the first Big 12 team to advance past the CFP semifinals.

The upcoming 2023 season has a chance to be one of the more special years in the history of the Big 12. It is certainly unique, since the conference will have a combination of teams they’ve never had before and won’t have again. They just added four new teams, yet still have a couple set to leave next offseason. With the balanced chaos of last season, plus all the moving parts of this coming year, it will be pandemonium in Big 12 country, if nothing else.

As for how it will all unfold on the football field, it’s anyone’s guess. But longtime college football prognosticator Phil Steele took his best stab at the Big 12 rankings this summer when he published his magazine. So take a look at how college football’s foremost prediction-maker sees the Big 12 standings shaking out in 2023:

1. Texas

Texas had a bounce back season in year two of the Steve Sarkisian era, getting back above .500 to finish a resectable 8-5 while dealing with injuries at QB for much of the year. They also landed at No. 20 in the final College Football Playoff rankings, which ties for their second-highest finish ever in those ratings.

Heading into year three of Sarkisian and their last before a significant upgrade in intra-conference competition, Texas has to cash in this year. They return a quarterback who was terrific when healthy last year and even have a star receiver to pair with him. The Longhorns may not be the outright winners, but they ought to be square in the hunt for a Big 12 title all year long.

2. Oklahoma

This selection from Phill will definitely ruffle some feathers. We all know the Sooners are talented again, especially offensively. But what did head coach Brent Venables demonstrate in year one to suggest he’ll have this program ahead of teams like Kansas State and TCU this year?

Steele also predicted OU QB Dillon Gabriel as first-team All-Big 12, another pick that’s a little controversial given some of the other established arms in the league. Clearly, he’s going all in on an Oklahoma bounce-back this coming fall. Adjust your expectations accordingly, folks.

3. TCU

The Horned Frogs’ success in 2022-23 speaks for itself, but it’s a new year and TCU is replacing the electric QB-WR duo that led the way for their ball club last fall and winter. Max Duggan had a knack for coming up in big moments and his timely playmaking was the small difference in several wins last season.

Regression is definitely expected for the Frogs, especially with new faces in places where stars used to be. But don’t sleep on TCU, either, obviously, since Steele is still picking them third and expecting them to contend in the Big 12 once again. Plus, they’re the highest-rated team of those who will participate in the conference beyond the 2023 season.

4. Kansas State

Folks in the midwestern Manhattan won’t like the look of these rankings, which slot their Wildcats fourth after KSU won the conference crown in 2022. Unlike TCU, this purple Big 12 powerhouse returns its starting quarterback and a number of other key contributors.

The school did say goodbye to a pair of sub-5-foot-8 superstars in basketball player Marqkuis Nowell and running back Deuce Vaughn, probably the two most notable members of KSU athletics last year. Replacing Vaughn’s explosiveness on the football field will be particularly tough, but perhaps that means relying more on QB Will Howard.

5. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders had a sneaky strong season in year one under head coach Joey McGuire. They weren’t in the thick of the Big 12 title race but they did fly in at a very respectable 8-5 on the year and really roared to life in the back half of the season. It was a 2-4 start to Big 12 play and a 4-5 start overall for the Red Raiders before they ran off four straight wins to end the season, including triumphs over Oklahoma and then Ole Miss in the bowl game.

If that momentum is maintained through 2023, McGuire is looking at one of the better starts to a coaching career in Red Raider history. However, two of Tech’s previous three coaches also went 8-5 in year one before dropping below .500 in year two.

6. Baylor

Last summer, Baylor was the benefactor of a very unknown and balanced Big 12 and were hesitantly picked to repeat as conference champs by the Big 12 media. Given those expectations, the Bears disappointed immensely in 2022, but BU fans aren’t ready to kick Dave Aranda out of town yet.

In another year where it’s tough to say who will definitely appear in the Big 12 title game, maybe there is some pressure this time around for Baylor to get back into the national discussion. For now, though, Phil Steele views the Bears as a top-half team in the new version of the league.

7. Oklahoma State

It’s not often that Oklahoma State finishes in the middle of the Big 12 standings under Mike Gundy, although they did do so last year. The Cowboys are a bankable team under their extremely-long-tenured head coach and you can generally expect them to bounce back strong after a mediocre season.

This time, Phil Steele is not so sure OSU has the firepower to make that leap into Big 12 title contention. And the concerns are valid, since the Cowboys just lost their starting quarterback and really struggled to run the ball in 2022.

8. UCF

Here lies the first newcomer of the rankings as Steele kicks off the back half of his poll with the UCF Knights. This program isn’t quite what it was during those peak years under Scott Frost and Josh Heupel, but after consecutive nine-win seasons, this is still a program worth respecting, even after the jump to the power conference level.

However, that leap still creates a lot of mystery around the Knights. If this were one of those 12-win teams from the past, they’d for certain rank higher. But a 9-4 or 9-5 record in the AAC isn’t a guarantee they’ll find immediate success in the Big 12. Nonetheless, eight is a respectable spot for Gus Malzahn and his crew to start off at.

9. Iowa State

Cyclone head coach Matt Campbell has had a strange and parabolic career, bookending his seven years (so far) with losing seasons while putting up a winning tally for five straight years — which is a real accomplishment in Ames. He also won eight games twice and nine once in the COVID-shortened 2020 season that included an 8-1 conference record.

By and large, Campbell gets this program to finishes well above where Steele has them ranked. That may not have been the case last season, but 2022 is the outlier among his years. If you throw out that first season, when Campbell took over the program in a putrid state, he’d since finished above .500 overall and in Big 12 play for five straight seasons prior to last fall. Will he return to that sort of success in 2023? Who knows, but it’s definitely possible, if not likely.

10. Kansas

Kansas probably hasn’t climbed above last or second-to-last in preseason Big 12 polls in over a decade, so even a prediction at 10th out 14 is something to smile about in Lawrence. Their football program was fun for much of last season, especially before injury robbed Jalon Daniels of a terrific season.

But he’s back in the fold along with rising star head coach Lance Leipold. Given the mismatch in sheer talent the Jayhawks face on a weekly basis in conference play, it’s likely they still sink towards the end of the Big 12 standings, but people would probably be surprised this year if Kansas bottomed out and finished last — and you can’t say that most years.

11. Cincinnati

Just two years ago, we all watched a really fun and obviously very good Cincy team hang with Alabama in the first half of a College Football Playoff game — something Notre Dame never even seemed capable of. Two years later and most of that core is gone and the Bearcats tapped Scott Satterfield to be their next head coach, who Louisville fans were thrilled to see go. That’s not a great sign.

The good news is that former head coach Luke Fickell recruited at a power conference level towards the end of his time there and left the Bearcats with a handful of very impressive recruiting wins on the roster. It’s not a depleted team by any means, but they have a few more questions than answers to warrant a very high ranking in year one in the new league.

12. Houston

The third and final AAC newcomer finds itself all the way down at 12th despite winning 12 games in 2021, with one of those losses coming against that playoff-bound Cincy team. Sure, that was in a weaker conference, but Cincinnati was obviously legit and Dana Holgorson backed that success up with decent results in 2022.

Again, it’s fair to be cautious with these new teams, who are now facing a stark contrast in opposing talent level over previous seasons. However, if there’s one team that moved in and flew under the radar, it’s Houston, who is 20-7 in their last two seasons combined.

13. West Virginia

Poor Mountaineer country. Their coach, Neal Brown, ranked dead last in CBS Sports’ Big 12 coach rankings; and now, Phil Steele has them picked toward the very bottom of the conference standings, as do most people. Frankly, a lot of folks see a dead man walking in Brown and expect a likely low finish in the standings to ultimately lead to his firing.

The expectations couldn’t be that much lower. So it’s time to surprise some folks if you’re him. At least WVU has a fun quarterback in Garrett Greene, who came in and always seemed to make stuff happen on a struggling 2022 team. Let’s also not overlook that Brown, while disappointing, also still tends to win 3-4 conference games and not finish dead last each year. Just something to monitor throughout the year.

14. BYU

This one is a real surprise. Like the other imports, BYU is facing an uptick in competition and all that, but this Cougar program has never been one to wilt against power conference foes under Kalani Sitake. In fact, he’s been a pretty consistently successful coach.

In seven years atop the program, Sitake has just one losing season vs. two seasons of 10+ wins, both of which happened in the last three years. He’s certainly a more proven and more successful coach than Scott Satterfield or Neal Brown and it’s likely the Cougars out-talent Kansas, so slotting them this low is pretty bold from Steele.

Recap

There you have it, the college football guru’s official picks for how he thinks the Big 12 will shake out. He’s clearly not terribly high on the newcomers, which could be expected. Plus, he’s also expecting Texas and Oklahoma to go out with a bang and finish 1-2 before they abscond eastward. Overall, we’re looking at another unpredictable and exciting slate of Big 12 football this coming fall.