Pivot Points: The games that could define the 2025 college football season

We all know the importance of Penn State–Ohio State or the history of Oklahoma–Texas. Those games are already circled on every college football fan’s calendar.

But there are other games — either because of the particular circumstances of the season or because of where conference schedule-makers placed them — that hold equal importance. These are the Pivot Point games. They’re the wins that can launch a successful streak or the losses that send a team tumbling toward a failed season. 

Here are 10 September and early-October games that could make an outsize impact on each team’s season…

Florida at LSU – September 13

This is a guaranteed meltdown game. No matter the result, the losing team’s fanbase will lose its collective mind.

The fans of both these teams expect College Football Playoff contention. Because of the difficulty of the remaining schedules, the loser of this game might not be able to achieve that. 

LSU will have already played Clemson and has Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama upcoming. Holding serve at home in the SEC opener will be critical for the Tigers.

The week after they visit Death Valley, the Gators play at Miami. Then, after an open date, they play Texas at home and then at Texas A&M. That gauntlet will define Florida’s season, and if it doesn’t start with a win, it could go poorly.

There’s nothing like a Saturday night in Death Valley. The greatest atmosphere in college football gets even better when the pressure gets poured on both teams.

Illinois at Indiana – September 20

This won’t be a CFP elimination game. It’s far too early in the season for that. But it will match two potential CFP contenders, and the loser might not be able to reach 10 wins.

Illinois brings back most of the best parts of a team that went 9-3 in the 2024 regular season. Indiana, meanwhile, is going to be far from a one-year wonder under coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers have some of the Big Ten’s most impactful players coming back after going 11-1.

Indiana’s schedule is harder this year, and the Hoosiers’ next two games are at Iowa and at Oregon. With a visit to Penn State still on the schedule, Indiana probably needs to go 2-1 in the Illinois-Iowa-Oregon stretch to be 10-2 or better.

Illinois will already have played Duke and still has Ohio State and a visit to Washington on the docket. This trip to Bloomington will be critical.

Auburn at Oklahoma – September 20

The Jackson Arnold Revenge Game will feature subplots aplenty, but it really comes down to this: Oklahoma and Auburn both expect a much better season than 2024, and both teams feel they should win this game.

I had this game on this list last season. It probably was the pivot point for Auburn, which collapsed following a crippling late interception to drop the second of four consecutive losses. The worst was still yet to come for Oklahoma, which suffered from subpar offensive line play and a receiver room riddled with injuries.

Auburn quarterback Arnold’s return to Norman is the dominant storyline, and it’s about as juicy as it gets. Former blue-chip recruit is hailed as the future of the program. Before he ascends to the starting job, the offensive coordinator leaves, the head coach makes a lazy hire and his season is torpedoed. Afterward, he’s cast aside to make room for a transfer (John Mateer) following the new offensive coordinator (Ben Arbuckle). Now Arnold has a chance to prove the Sooners wrong (or correct). Meanwhile, Mateer will face a defense led by one of the nation’s best edge rushers (Keldric Faulk). 

Both teams will have played tough out-of-conference opponents before this game — Baylor for Auburn, Michigan for Oklahoma — but this game starts tough stretches for each team. Auburn’s next three games are at Texas A&M and then home against Georgia and Missouri. Oklahoma has an open date and then Kent State before the Texas game touches off possibly the toughest seven-game stretch in college football history.

Texas Tech at Utah – September 20

It’s tough to pick Pivot Point games in the Big 12 because so many of the teams feel evenly matched. But for Texas Tech’s offseason investment in the transfer portal pays off,  the Red Raiders will need to be able to beat a team like Utah.

The Utes’ line of scrimmage players were recruited to win a Pac-12 that still included Oregon, Washington and USC, and if New Mexico transfer quarterback Devon Dampier can spark an offense that has struggled since Cam Rising injured his knee in the Rose Bowl following the 2022 season, then Utah should be capable of contending for the Big 12 title. 

This game will match two of the league’s best rosters, and the winner will have a big head-to-head chip in its pocket come November.

Oregon at Penn State – September 27

This will be the first major test for a new-look Ducks team that had to replace first-rounders on both lines of scrimmage and veteran quarterback. Oregon can lose this game and still make the College Football Playoff, but this is the type of team Oregon will have to beat once in the CFP.

The same goes for Penn State, but probably with more urgency. The Nittany Lions did make the semifinals last season, but they did it by beating SMU and Boise State. If Penn State wants to win a national title, it has to start beating opponents with elite talent. This is that type of game. Plus, with road games against Iowa and Ohio State and a visit from Indiana later in the season, there is no guarantee that Penn State can afford to lose this one.

Alabama at Georgia – September 27

This game didn’t necessarily prove anything last season. Alabama jumped on Georgia early and then survived a furious comeback, but the Crimson Tide ended up missing the CFP and Georgia wound up winning the SEC. 

The degree of difficulty of an Alabama win in Athens this season might be more indicative of a return to the CFP. With a new starting QB — we’re presuming Ty Simpson — this is a rough first SEC road game. (At least the Tide get the season opener at Florida State to work out any on-the-road kinks.) But if Simpson (or Keelon Russell, if it goes that way), can win between the hedges, he can win anywhere.

Meanwhile, Georgia will be coming off its SEC opener at Tennessee. A win in both could provide a huge confidence boost the rest of the way. Yes, the Bulldogs would still have to play Florida, Ole Miss and Texas, but they get the Rebels and Longhorns at home and haven’t lost to the Gators since 2020.

Boise State at Notre Dame – October 4

The Broncos don’t have to just win the Mountain West to get back to the CFP. They need to prove they can be competitive against a playoff-caliber opponent. Last year, Boise State’s loss at Oregon probably was more important than most of the Broncos’ wins because it showed they could go toe-to-toe against an elite roster. A win at Notre Dame would leave no doubt in that category.

The Fighting Irish have several tough early-season games (at Miami, Texas A&M), and this one ends a challenging early stretch. If Notre Dame comes out of it 5-0 or 4-1, the Irish probably are headed back to the CFP.

Michigan at USC – October 11

Last year’s meeting summed up much of what ailed both programs.

Michigan couldn’t throw, and USC couldn’t stop Michigan from scoring the winning touchdown even though everyone in the stadium knew Michigan couldn’t throw.

This meeting should provide a clear view of how — or whether — these teams have evolved. 

Michigan will have played Oklahoma, Nebraska and Wisconsin. (The Nebraska game likely will be without head coach Sherrone Moore because of a school-imposed suspension.) We should know by this point how much of a difference freshman QB Bryce Underwood will make. 

USC, meanwhile, will have three Big Ten games under its belt (Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois). It should be 2-1 at worst in those games, and a win against the Wolverines would put the Trojans in a great position heading into games at Notre Dame and Nebraska.

Louisville at Miami – October 17

The Hurricanes’ toughest games might come in the first month, but Notre Dame and Florida aren’t in the ACC. Miami can lose those games and still have a chance to make the CFP as the ACC champ (or possibly as an at-large). Louisville is a potential ACC title contender this year, but if Miami can beat the Cardinals it would put the Hurricanes in a good spot. Miami plays SMU but doesn’t play Clemson in the regular season, so beating Louisville on a Friday night could give the Hurricanes the inside track on an ACC title game berth.

Louisville plays Clemson and SMU in back-to-back weeks in November, so it might need to win this one to have a crack at the ACC title. 

Nebraska at Minnesota – October 17

The last Nebraska–Minnesota game — Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule’s debut in 2023 — was a prime example of the late-game collapses Rhule was hired to purge from the program. Two years later, Rhule seems to have made significant progress.

For Nebraska to take the next step, it needs to win games like this. Minnesota isn’t the sexiest opponent, but the Golden Gophers are tough, well coached and have beaten the Cornhuskers in the teams’ past five meetings. 

Minnesota also wants to take another step. The Gophers closed last season by winning six of their last eight, and coach P.J. Fleck’s team should start this season hot. Minnesota should be 5-1 when Nebraska visits. With trips to Iowa and Oregon still on the docket, a win against the Cornhuskers could provide big momentum heading into a critical stretch.