Predicting the AP Top 25 Poll: Alabama, Florida State, Notre Dame, Colorado rise, LSU falls

It’s good to have college football back. Even despite a tepid (by most season’s standards) Week 1 with just a single ranked-on-ranked matchup, the first full slate of games (and it’s not over with Clemson at Duke tonight) provided plenty of entertainment, fireworks and a couple of upsets. 

Typically, the updated AP Top 25 poll is released on Sunday morning, but the rankings will be delayed until Tuesday to start the 2023 season.

But we don’t have to wait. We can predict how the reshuffled rankings might look now. 

AP Poll voters have multiple sets of data points for Top 25 teams like USU and Notre Dame, both 2-0 with a pair of blowouts. But they’re also basing opinions on teams with lots of Week 1 showings against overmatched opponents. With just two teams in the rankings losing this week, don’t expect a ton of shakeup in the Top 25. Still, Alabama could (*should*) leapfrog Ohio State in the Top 5, while Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffs look primed to be ranked coming off the biggest upset of the weekend as a three-touchdown underdog at No. 17 TCU.   

Here’s how I think the new AP Top 25 could look come Tuesday: 

1. Georgia (Last week: 1)

Like a spoiled third grader, the Bulldogs pushed their vegetables around their plate for a half, playing with their food before easily putting away UT-Martin 48-7.  Georgia finished the day averaging nearly 8.0 yards per play, but the OL was hit or miss, Carson Beck wasn’t overly accurate and the wideouts dropped multiple passes. 

And yet, while UGA fans all over Twitter were calling for Mike Bobo’s firing one quarter into the opener, the same Georgia team that beat TCU 65-7 in the national title game slogged its way through a 33-0 win over FCS Samford in Week 2 last season. Relax.

2. Michigan (Last week: 2)

Despite Wolverines’ players acting as if Jim Harbaugh had died in its pregame tribute to its suspended head coach, Michigan was alive and well in its 2023 opener. 

J.J. McCarthy was a crisp 26-of-30 for 286 yards and three touchdowns (all to senior Roman Wilson), while the Blue & Maize forced a slew of 3-and-outs and saw Nebraska transfer linebacker Ernest Hausmann make an impact immediately (team-high six tackles, 1 TFL). Until they’re unseated, the Wolverines remain the kings of the Big Ten.

3. Alabama (Last week: 4)

I don’t know who Alabama’s QB1 will be for most of the 2023 season, but it’s clear that Nick Saban and Tommy Rees are riding with Jalen Milroe heading into next weekend’s monster showdown against Texas. 

Milroe took every snap in the first half of the Tide’s 56-7 win over MTSU, finishing the blowout win as Alabama’s leading passer and rusher with 242 total yards and five total touchdowns. The Tide’s defense showed its potential in the 2023 debut, too, finishing with seven TFLs, three sacks and a pick.

4. Ohio State (Last week: 3)

The Buckeyes overcame a sluggish start offensively to win its Big Ten/2023 opener against Indiana 23-3. I think Ohio State’s QB competition is decided.

Despite Ryan Day suggesting that both Kyle McCord and Devin Brown would both see significant snaps in Week 1, McCord (who was very up-and-down in his second-career start) played all but one series in the win. Ohio State’s OL concerns remain real, but this is still an offense with worlds of skill talent (Marvin Harrison Jr. won’t have another game with two catches for 18 yards the rest of the season) and a defense that looks like it will be much better in Year 2 under Jim Knowles.

5. Florida State (Last week: 8)

Behind a dominant second-half performance in Orlando, Mike Norvell’s Seminoles certified an offseason full of hype by blitzing No. 5 LSU 45-24 — including a 31-7 beatdown after halftime. After going 0-3 vs. ranked foes in 2022, Norvell led FSU to its first ranked win since 2020. 

Jordan Travis overcame some yips to finish with 400 total yards and five total touchdowns, and pass rusher Jared Verse was a menace off the edge all night, and yet the Noles’ best player was wideout Keon Coleman. The Michigan State transfer was a cheat code against a remade LSU secondary, finishing with nine catches for 122 yards and three touchdowns.  Meanwhile, even outside of Verse, Florida State’s defensive line was as advertised, coming up with multiple stops deep in the red zone and harassing LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels all night (four sacks, five TFLs, one pick). 

6. USC (Last week: 6)

Caleb Williams’ Heisman Trophy campaign 2.0 is off to a blitzing start, as USC’s sophomore QB threw for 315 yards and five touchdowns in a 66-14 splattering over Nevada. 

The Trojans had the season’s best (and first?) FAT MAN TOUCHDOWN with 280-pound DT Stanley Ta’ufo’ou rumbling 23 yards for a fumble return score.  USC is now 2-0, and while there are still some kinks to work out defensively, with Williams pulling the strings, the Trojans can score at will. 

7. Penn State (Last week: 7)

Hello, Drew Allar! Billed as the missing piece for the Nittany Lions’ offense, the former 5-star sophomore quarterback sliced and diced West Virginia’s defense in his first career start for 325 yards, 11.2 yards per attempt and three touchdowns in a convincing 38-15 win over the Mountaineers. 

Even with Chop Robinson and Abdul Carter having quiet nights, Penn State’s defense was as advertised (6 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 PBUs). Compared to Ohio State’s clunker, James Franklin’s team made the necessary statement that much of the preseason hype wasn’t outlandish. 

8. Clemson (Last week: 9)

As the capstone of Week 1, The Tigers take on Duke tonight at 8 p.m. (ESPN) 

The reigning ACC Champions are just a touchdown-favorite against Mike Elko’s Blue Devils, which is coming off a 9-4 season and returns 17 starters. 

9. Washington (Last week: 10)

After Deion Sanders and Colorado’s stunning upset over TCU, no Pac-12 team made a bigger statement in Week 1 than the Huskies. Michael Penix Jr. & Co., boat-raced a solid Boise State team 56-19, with the senior southpaw throwing for 450 yards and five touchdowns.

Washington had three wideouts go for north of 95 yards apiece, and  Penix submitted his name as a top Heisman Trophy contender with his Week 1 showing.  One thing to watch: Down starting tailback Cam Davis (torn ACL), the Huskies had just 78 yards rushing on 19 carries. Davis had 13 rushing scores last season, and Washington will need better production from its backs moving forward. 

10. Notre Dame (Last week: 13)

This ain’t your granddaddy’s Irish. Or actually, maybe it is? With Sam Hartman at quarterback, Notre Dame’s offense looks like one of the best in the country (11 TDs in 12 drives, 49 points per game).

The Irish are so much better at the playmaker positions, too, and Marcus Freeman (and Al Golden’s) defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown all season.

The rest of the projected AP Top 25:

11. Texas (Last week: 11)

After a bit of a sluggish start, the Longhorns ate up Rice through the air, as Quinn Ewers threw for 260 yards and three scores in a 37-10 win. Texas was a bit sloppy on the OL (eight TFLs, three sacks allowed) but the defense was fast and physical, creating all sorts of havoc (two sacks, two interceptions, four PBUs). Alabama awaits.

12. Tennessee (Last week: 13)

Behind a methodical, soul-crushing ground game (287 yards, five scores), the Vols dismantled Virginia 49-13 in Nashville. Bazooka Joe Milton missed some throws and saw a surefire touchdown get dropped, but Tennessee’s front seven was very impressive — especially edge rushers Tyler Baron (two sacks) and James Pearce Jr. (two sacks). 

13. Utah (Last week: 14)

Down eight starters, including star quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brent Kuthie, the Utes kicked off Week 1 by strangling the Florida Gators in a 24-11 win Thursday. Utah’s defense stymied Florida’s prolific rushing attack and it harassed Graham Mertz for five sacks. 

14. LSU (Last week: 5)

The Tigers wilted in the second half of their marquee matchup against Florida State, and while a 45-24 drubbing isn’t quite indicative of the competitiveness of the game, Brian Kelly’s team was outplayed — and outcoached. LSU gambled on multiple 4th downs in the red zone in the first half, coming up empty each possession. Jayden Daniels ran hot and cold (22 of 37 for 347 yards and a touchdown and interception) but was still the engine of LSU’s offense (64 rushing yards) for a unit that otherwise couldn’t move the ball without his dual-threat prowess. Harold Perkins was largely invisible (zero hurries, sacks or TFLs), while LSU’s secondary concerns were validated. 

15. Oregon (Last week: 15)

In one of the biggest laughers of the weekend, Oregon hung 81 on FCS Portland State, as Bo Nix (287 yards, three touchdowns), Bucky Irving (119 yards on four carries with two scores) & Co., rolled up more than 725 yards. Suddenly, a trip to Lubbock looks a lot less daunting with Texas Tech’s loss at Wyoming in Week 1.

16. Kansas State (Last week: 16)

The Wildcats quickly and quietly put away Southeast Missouri State, jumping out to a 35-0 lead before running out the clock in the second half. Will Howard threw for nearly 300 yards, while Kansas State’s defense harassed the Redhawks for 11 TFLs and four sacks.

17. Oregon State (Last week: 18)

The DJ Uiagalelei debut in Corvallis got off to a fast start Sunday, as the former Clemson starter completed 20 of 25 passes for 239 yards and five total touchdowns in the Beavers’ 42-17 win over San Jose State. Unlike USC a week earlier, Oregon State was able to slow Spartans quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who accounted for less than 170 total yards as a passer and runner. 

18. Oklahoma (Last week: 20)

After last season’s disappointing 6-7 showing in Year 1 under Brent Venables, the Sooners let out a year’s worth of frustrations in their 73-0 shellacking of Arkansas State. Dillion Gabriel was nearly perfect (19 of 22 for 308 yards), and backup 5-star freshman Jackson Arnold was (11 of 11 for 114 yards and two total touchdowns). The Sooners found the end zone on their opening six possessions.

19. North Carolina (Last week: 21)

Among the most impressive showings all weekend, the Tar Heels dismissed the doubters (including yours truly) who didn’t believe in their purported defensive renaissance this offseason. Despite just a so-so game from all-world quarterback Drake Maye (269 yards, two touchdowns, two picks), North Carolina dominated South Carolina 31-17 thanks to a relentlessly punishing defensive effort (just 11 yards rushing allowed, nine sacks and 16 TFLs). 

20. Ole Miss (Last week: 21)

If not for Oregon or Oklahoma, Ole Miss’ offensive explosion would’ve featured the most fireworks of the weekend in a 73-7 splattering of Mercer. The Rebels scored nine touchdowns, including four by La. Tech transfer wideout Tre Harris. Quarterback Jaxson Dart averaged 14.5 yards per attempt, and as a team, Ole Miss threw for 525 — with 14 passing plays over 20 yards. 

21. Wisconsin (Last week: 19)

The official ‘Dairy Raid’ rebrand will have to wait, as Wisconsin’s new-look offense featured a whole lot of the same in its 2023 opener with Luke Fickell as head coach. In a 38-17 win, the Badgers bludgeoned Buffalo on the ground. Chez Mellusi (157 yards, two scores) and Braelon Allen (141 with two tuddies) combined for nearly 300 rushing yards, as transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai was mostly meh in his debut (less than 200 yards, one touchdown, two picks).

22. Texas A&M (Last week: 22)

The early returns from the Bobby Petrino-Jimbo Fisher union were very promising, as the Aggies’ offense got off to a blazing start in a 52-10 win over New Mexico. Connor Weigman through four touchdowns on the team’s first four possessions, and the 50-burger was the most points Texas A&M has scored against an FBS opponent in the regular season since a seven-overtime game against LSU in 2018. A tougher test looms next weekend with a trip to Miami.

23. Colorado (Last week: Unranked)

Deion Sanders and the Buffs were the talk of college football Saturday, stunning most of the country in a thrilling 45-42 upset over No. 17 TCU. Shedeur Sanders had 510 passing yards and four touchdowns in his FBS debut, while Travis Hunter turned in a transcendent two-way performance. The former 5-star signee played both ways for Colorado, logging 129 snaps where he caught 11 passes for 119 yards, had a key red zone interception and two other pass breakups. The Buffs struggled to get stops in the second half, but they held on to force TCU on downs to seal the win. With expectations suddenly recalibrated, Colorado — with home games against Nebraska and Colorado State, both 0-1, on deck — could be 3-0 when it goes to Oregon in a few weeks.

24. Tulane (Last week: 24)

The Green Wave were on upset alert this weekend with an opener against a South Alabama team that won 10 games a year ago, but Michael Pratt and Tulane handled its business in a 37-17 victory. Pratt was flawless, going 14 of 15 for 294 yards and four scores — the last one coming on a crazy, reverse flea-flicker for a 48-yard touchdown. Tulane has a major opportunity to make a national statement in a ranked showdown with Ole Miss next weekend.

25. Iowa (Last week: 25)

Welp, it looks like there will be some drama in the Drive for 325 after all. The Hawkeyes jumped out to a 14-0 lead on their opening two possessions, only to see their offense stall out the rest of the game in a 24-14 win over Utah State. Iowa coughed up a pair of fumbles, averaged just 2.4 yards per rush and finished with fewer than 290 total yards. Brian Ferentz still has some work to do.

Projected to drop out: No. 17 TCU