Predicting the College Football Playoff Rankings: After waxing Ole Miss, Georgia jumps Ohio State at No. 1

The next edition of the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings will be released Tuesday evening by the selection committee — the third of six rankings before Selection Day after conference championship weekend. 

Despite the Top 7 teams all winning against Saturday, the committee is likely to shake up the Top 4 for the first time all season.  Georgia predicts to be the new No. 1 after demolishing No. 10 Ole Miss 52-17. Elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Washington leapfrog Florida State into the First Four after adding another Top 25 win to its resume. 

Here is how we project how the selection committee sees the second 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings:

1. Georgia

On a cold and rainy night in Athens, the Bulldogs clinched their third-straight SEC East title with a beatdown over Ole Miss. With the return of star tight end Brock Bowers and standout right tackle Amarius Mims, Carson Beck & Co., rolled up 52 points and 611 yards against the Rebels — scoring touchdowns on eight of their first 10 drives.  Bowers, who’d missed the last three weeks after undergoing tight-rope surgery on his ankle, caught a touchdown, while Kendall Milton rushed for a career-high 127 yards and two scores on Senior Night. 

Georgia now has back-to-back wins over Top 15 teams (Missouri and Ole Miss), and its victory against the Tigers looks even more impressive with how Mizzou manhandled Tennessee on Saturday. 

2. Ohio State 

The Buckeyes took care of business against a hapless Michigan State team, cruising to a 38-3 victory. Kyle McCord is finally starting to round into form (335 yards and three touchdowns), while Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to prove unstoppable (149 yards and three total touchdowns). 

But a blowout over a 3-7 team won’t do much of anything for the committee.

If anything, Ohio State’s resume took a hit Saturday as Wisconsin choked at home against Northwestern and Rutgers was blanked by Iowa. 

Still, with Minnesota on deck and then a trip to Michigan, the only thing that matters for the Buckeyes is to run the table the rest of the way and their ranking will take care of itself. 

3. Michigan

The Wolverines finally played a team with a pulse and they still pounded Penn State into submission, disregarding the pass for 32 straight runs to end the game in a 24-15 win that wasn’t even that close. 

Michigan was clearly galvanized by the last-minute suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh, who missed the game after the Big Ten handed down its punishment Friday afternoon for the school’s involvement in the alleged sign-stealing scandal.

The Playoff Selection Committee is already on record that it will continue to evaluate the Wolverines like every other team, though. 

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy had as many runs (eight) as pass attempts in the win over the Nittany Lions, while Blake Corum went for 145 yards and two touchdowns. Led by the spirited effort of tackle Kenneth Grant, the Wolverines defense put the fear into Drew Allar, who had just 70 yards passing. And yet, Michigan’s win over PSU was very similar to Ohio State’s, thus it is unlikely to move up in this week’s rankings. 

4. Washington 

The Huskies pitched a second-half shutout to hang on to beat a Top 25 Utah team 35-28. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw for 332 yards and accounted for three touchdowns to keep his Heisman Trophy candidacy alive, but the selection committee will be more impressed by Washington’s defensive response after an ugly second quarter (three touchdowns) against the Utes. 

At this point, Washington’s resume is better than Florida State’s. The Huskies have a win over Oregon that remains one of the best of the season, while a close call against a now Top 25 Arizona (when the team reportedly had the flu) suddenly doesn’t look so concerning. 

FIRST TWO OUT

5. Florida State

The Seminoles had to hang on to beat a decent but hardly impressive Miami team, getting a late interception to seal a 27-20 victory. FSU’s offensive and defensive fronts actually lost the line of scrimmage against Miami, but the difference in the game was the ‘Noles had quarterback Jordan Travis (265 passing yards and a touchdown) and wideout Keon Coleman (key 57-yard punt return, one receiving touchdown) and the Canes didn’t. 

Considering FSU had a pedestrian performance against Pitt last weekend, too, a slight slippage in the rankings could be forthcoming. While Georgia or Washington could perhaps survive a loss and still make the CFP field, FSU needs to run the table to secure a spot in 2023.

6. Oregon

The Ducks continue to wade in the weeds as the top-ranked one-loss team. Bo Nix had over 400 yards and four scores in a 36-27 win over USC to continue to build upon his Heisman Trophy campaign.

While Texas and Alabama arguably have more impressive resumes, Oregon’s balance as a Top 15 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency seems to have tipped the scales in their favor in the committee’s eyes. They play Arizona State next weekend, which won’t do anything for their ranking, but the season-finale against Oregon State would give the Ducks another Top 25 win and setup a likely rematch with Washington.