Predicting the College Football Playoff Rankings: Georgia cemented at No. 1, Washington jumps Florida State into the Top 4

JesseReSimonton

Andy Staples Week 13 Resume Rankings | 11.19.23

The next edition of the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings will be released Tuesday evening by the selection committee — the fourth of six rankings before Selection Day after conference championship weekend.

There were no seismic upsets to shake up the College Football Playoff race in Week 12, but a horrible, unfortunate injury to a star player on an undefeated team could impact one team’s hopes for the rest of the season.

After three arduous seasons, Jordan Travis guided Florida State out of the ACC cellar into national championship contention, only to suffer a gruesome leg injury on Senior Night against FCS North Alabama. Travis was carted off the field and is unlikely to play in FSU’s final two games before CFP Selection Sunday.

The ‘Noles have no margin for error, and neither do Michigan or Ohio State — who play next weekend. Georgia is firmly cemented at No. 1, while Washington made its case to jump into the Top 4.

Here is how we project how the selection committee sees the fourth 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings:

Dillon Bell Georgia Bulldogs — Georgia wide receiver Dillon Bell (86) runs the ball while defended by Tennessee defensive back Doneiko Slaughter (0) during a football game between Tennessee and Georgia at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023.

1. Georgia

There’s no debate anymore as to who the best team in the country is this season, as the Bulldogs are peaking at the right time in the midst of playing the teeth of their schedule. Georgia has three straight wins over Top 25 teams, bludgeoning Tennessee 38-10 in Neyland Stadium on Saturday.

Georgia is the most balanced team in the country and should be 12-0 — with back-to-back perfect regular seasons — when it squares off against Alabama in the SEC Championship. While a loss to the Tide could spoil Georgia’s quest for a three-peat, the Bulldogs have been so dominant down the stretch the committee could still believe UGA is one of the best four teams.

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes haven’t allowed a touchdown in their last two games, and TreVeyon Henderson is heating up just in time for “The Game” against Michigan. While the Wolverines are dealing with plenty of internal turmoil and distractions, Ryan Day and Ohio State face mounting pressure to snap its losing streak to Michigan and go on and win the Big Ten title.

The Buckeyes haven’t lost three straight games to Michigan since 1995-97. Getting beat by Jim Harbaugh twice is one thing, but losing to an interim head coach could truly make OSU fans sour on Day & Co. Considering the crowded field fighting for a playoff spot behind Ohio State, the Buckeyes can’t afford a loss Saturday and still hope to make the CFP like in 2022. So the stakes are high.

Michigan Wolverines football Jim Harbaugh Mike Sainristil — (Photo by Per Kjeldsen / TheWolverine.com)

3. Michigan

Coming off the Penn State win, the Wolverines were either looking ahead to its showdown with Ohio State or simply suffered a stinker amid all the ongoing distractions surrounding its sign-stealing scandal, escaping Maryland with a 31-24 win.

The Wolverines know the deal here: They must win out to get into the CFP for the third year in a row. Their non-conference schedule provides them no cover should they lose to either Ohio State or Iowa in the Big Ten Championship. Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sidelines Saturday, but Sherrone Moore will be, and he’s 3-0 as the team’s substitute head coach.

Nov 18, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) runs the ball during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

4. Washington

The Huskies went on the road and were held scoreless for the entire second half against Oregon State, yet they clawed their way to another win to remain undefeated and atop the Pac-12 standings.

Washington gained just 272 total yards and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was limited to just 5.5 yards per attempt playing in howling rain and win (his wideouts struggling to catch the ball in such conditions). But by beating the Beavers, Washington now has four wins over Top 25 teams (Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona and Utah), and their resume continues to strengthen compared to Florida State.

FIRST TWO OUT

5. Florida State

The Seminoles were already in a tight debate with Washington for the No. 4 spot, and now FSU must navigate the last two games of the season without senior quarterback Jordan Travis. The ‘Noles can ill-afford a loss, and while their resume doesn’t quite stack up to the Huskies, if they beat Florida and win the ACC Championship — especially with a backup quarterback — they’re in.

Travis’ injury is devastating for both the player and the program, but the committee isn’t going to project or penalize Florida State. It will let the Seminoles play out their remaining schedule, and they’re either good enough elsewhere to survive with Tate Rodemaker, or they’re not.

6. Oregon

Bo Nix is doing his best to steal the Heisman Trophy from Jayden Daniels, recording another 400-yard, zillion-touchdown performance in a rout over Arizona State. The Ducks just keep hammering teams, and while they lack a marquee win (smashing Utah no longer looks so impressive), the committee remains infatuated with their balance and efficiency on both sides of the ball.

The Ducks host rival Oregon State this weekend and then will play Washington in a rematch for the Pac-12 Championship. Win both, and they’re in. Lose to the Beavers and still beat the Huskies, then Oregon would need total chaos to make the CFP as a two-loss conference champion.