Predicting the College Football Playoff Rankings: Will Georgia jump Ohio State at No. 1?

The next edition of the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings will be released Tuesday evening by the selection committee — the second of six rankings before Selection Day after conference championship weekend. 

After another week of data, will there be a change at No. 1?

I think so. 

Despite a weekend where none of the Top 5 teams lost — something that’s only happened two other times during the second week of the College Football Playoff Rankings ever — I don’t see the committee simply saying, “Nothing new to see here.” The Top 6 teams will remain the same, but Georgia will take the top spot from Ohio State after securing its first win over a current Top 25 team. 

Here is how we project how the selection committee sees the second 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings:

1. Georgia

The Bulldogs delivered a bit of a ho-hum performance in a 30-21 win over No. 12 Missouri, but their discipline and resiliency proved to be enough for their 26th-straight victory — and enough to leapfrog Ohio State in the rankings.  Georgia continues to battle injuries at key spots, playing without right tackle Amarius Mims and star tight end Brock Bowers again Saturday, while losing All-American linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a forearm injury. 

UGA, which moved one step closer to clinching the SEC East for the third consecutive season, will continue to face team’s best punches, with Top 25 matchups the next two weeks against No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 17 Tennessee.

2. Ohio State 

The Buckeyes weren’t overly impressive in their 35-16 win over Rutgers, but they did end up cruising past a 6-2 team with a strong second half thanks to a pick-six and a pair of Marvin Harrison Jr. touchdowns. 

Ohio State does not pass the eye test as the No. 1 team in the nation. Its offense has been clunky all season, needing to be bailed out by either Harrison or tailback TreVeyon Henderson.

The Buckeyes still have a quality resume, although it isn’t quite as strong as a week ago with Notre Dame losing at Clemson and Wisconsin getting upset by Indiana.

Ohio State and Washington are the only two undefeated teams with a win over a current Top 10 team. 

3. Michigan

The Playoff Selection Committee went on record that it would not Jim Harbaugh’s team for the alleged sign-stealing scandal, but will more and more damning info coming out seemingly each day, does that still hold true?

The Wolverines easily dispatched Purdue 41-13, but they still do not have a single Top 25 win on their resume. That could change next Saturday when they play at Penn State, though. Michigan remains the darling of the analytics community, too, ranking No. 1 nationally in offensive and defensive EPA and No. 1 in game control.

4. Florida State

Florida State overcame a sleepy start to win 24-7 at Pitt, with Jordan Travis having a big game despite missing his top two targets. The Seminoles’ defense put the clamps on the Panthers, not allowing a single third down conversion (0-11) and forcing three turnovers. 

The ‘Noles clinched a spot in the ACC Championship with the win, and depending on one’s viewpoint, their resume got worse, slightly improved or didn’t at all. Like shuffling a bunch of papers around. 

The win over Clemson looks *slightly* better with the Tigers’ upset over Notre Dame, but LSU now has three losses, so that win isn’t as impressive.

With the rest of the ACC watered-down, Florida State will need to win out (likely facing Louisville in the title game) to make the CFP.

FIRST TWO OUT

5. Washington 

The Huskies’ win over Oregon continues to look like the best single victory of the 2023 season, and following a couple of rocky weekends, their offense got back on track against USC’s abysmal defense in a 52-42 shootout win. While there’s a case that Washington should be ranked in the Top 4, the flat performances against Arizona State and Stanford are likely to be held against them. The Huskies’ defense also continues to show concerning signs, allowing over 30 points the last two weeks. 

Washington’s potential in the CFP rankings will sort itself out in the coming weeks, as the Huskies still have a gauntlet to navigate with upcoming games against Utah and Oregon State, as well as a potential rematch with the Ducks in Las Vegas.

6. Oregon

Texas and Alabama continue to nip at Oregon’s heels, but the Ducks remain the top one-loss team in the country after Week 10. They turned a 14-13 game against Cal into a curb-stopping, winning 63-19 behind six Bo Nix touchdowns. 

The committee won’t care too much about beating up on a bad Bears team, but the win over Utah could be viewed even better after the Utes pasted an improving Arizona State team 55-3. 

Oregon hosts USC on Saturday and the goal for Dan Lanning’s team remains the same: Win out, avenge the loss to Washington and finish as the highest-ranked one-loss team.