Predicting the preseason 2023 AP Top 25 Poll: Georgia, Michigan and then who?

On Monday, the always highly-anticipated Preseason AP Top 25 Rankings will be released. Although the poll no longer has an official say in college football’s postseason, it still holds a special prestige within the sport and carries — from now until December — major weight in the perception of how teams are viewed.

During the season, Associated Press voters release their rankings each Sunday afternoon. So let’s have some fun and predict what the 2023 Preseason AP Top 25 Rankings will look like next week.

To be clear, this isn’t On3’s Top 25, this is an exercise in thinking like the AP voters — who historically, really like famous helmets, returning quarterbacks and what a team did to end the 2022 season. They also love to pump up hyped teams (hello Penn State, Texas and Texas Tech). 

Predicting the AP Top 25 Rankings

1. Georgia

The Bulldogs are going for a three-peat in 2023 — something that hasn’t happened in college football in 88 years. The Bulldogs probably won’t be the unanimous preseason pick at No. 1, but they’ll carry the lion’s share of the votes. While Kirby Smart’s team will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, Georgia remains stacked along the lines of scrimmage and in the secondary and also has its deepest pool of skill talent during its recent title run.

ONE THING TO KNOW: The Bulldogs have seen 25 players drafted off their last two national championship teams, yet they return 15 starters in 2023 — and had 16 players named to the Preseason All-SEC Teams.

2. Michigan 

The Wolverines have a title or bust feel in 2023, with Jim Harbaugh calling the current back-to-back Big Ten champs his best team to date at Michigan. The Maize & Blue have 13 starters back, including second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy and dynamic tailbacks Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, and added key reinforcements from the transfer portal at offensive, defensive line and linebacker. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: Michigan ranks No. 5 nationally in returning production at 81%, per ESPN metrics.

3. Ohio State

The Buckeyes might have the best roster in America not residing in Athens, Ga. Marvin Harrison Jr. could be one of five 1st Round picks in 2024, and while Ryan Day has a QB competition to sort out, Ohio State stands to be awesome offensively again this season. If Jim Knowles can improve OSU’s defense in his second season, then the Buckeyes could snap a two-game losing streak to Michigan, reclaim its Big Ten supremacy and win a national title. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: In four seasons as Ohio State’s head coach, Ryan Day is 44-2 against every team not named Michigan (1-2), Georgia (0-1) and Alabama (0-1).

4. Alabama

Despite one of the most intriguing quarterback battles in the country, the Crimson Tide were picked to win the SEC West by the preseason media. Nick Saban has two new coordinators (Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele) and a quintet of transfers he hopes will provide more production than last year’s portal haul. Despite some potential flaws on the roster, the Tide are still a legitimate national title contender this fall, especially after signing the No. 1 recruiting class in 2023,

ONE THING TO KNOW: How dominant has Alabama been under Saban? The last time the Tide went three straight seasons without winning a national championship was 2006-08 — the latter two seasons the first with the GOAT at the helm. 

5. LSU

The Tigers are among the most hyped teams entering 2023. Brian Kelly exceeded expectations in Year 1, upsetting Alabama and winning the SEC West. Now, he returns quarterback Jayden Daniels, the best set of wideouts in the SEC, all five starting OL and perhaps the best defensive player in the country in linebacker Harold Perkins Jr.

ONE THING TO KNOW: LSU ranked just No. 51st nationally in yards per play on defense last season, but in Matt House’s second year, plus the return of former 5-star tackle Maason Smith, the unit projects to be much improved this fall.

6. USC

The Trojans have the best player in the country in quarterback Caleb Williams, and Lincoln Riley has worked doggedly this offseason to improve a defense that ranked in the 100s last season in a slew of categories. In their final year of the Pac-12, the Trojans are looking to win the league for the first time since 2017. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: The Trojans should waltz to 6-0, but their schedule is extremely backloaded, as they play at Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, at Oregon and Utah — all of whom could be ranked — to end the season. 

7. Penn State

The Nittany Lions are looking to bust the door and win the Big Ten for the first time since 2016. James Franklin’s team enters the summer with as much hype as any program in the country. The Nittany Lions might have the best defense in the conference and have a stacked OL and dynamic tailback duo in sophomores Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: James Franklin is just 3-15 against Top 10 teams in seven seasons as the head coach at Penn State. 

8. Florida State

Although Clemson was the media’s pick to win the ACC, the Seminoles enter the fall as belle of the ball. FSU returns more production than any national title contender in the country, and while the ‘Noles have a tough September slate, if they can navigate the first month of the season they could be a true CFP contender come December. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: Sixth-year senior quarterback Jordan Travis has third-best preseason Heisman Trophy odds. 

9. Clemson

Despite a downgrade in national perception, the Tigers went undefeated in conference play last season, winning the ACC for the seventh time in eight years. This fall, quarterback Cade Klubnik and new OC Garrett Riley are expected to upgrade the Tigers’ offense, while the defense should remain solid — to elite. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: Riley was awesome at dialing up explosive plays as TCU’s OC in 2022 (91 plays over 20 yards) — an ideal trait that was lacking from the Tigers last fall (66th nationally).

10. Texas

It’s fairly simple: The Longhorns return the most talented team in the Big 12 and should win the final year in the conference. But can Steve Sarkisian finally win 10 games and stop squandering second-half leads? 

ONE THING TO KNOW: Former 5-star quarterback Quinn Ewers completed just 58% of his passes last fall, but with Xavier Worthy, UGA transfer AD Mitchell and a host of other playmakers, the Longhorns’ passing game should be much-improved this fall. 

11. Washington

The Huskies bring back potential Heisman Trophy quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and one of the best set of receivers in the country. Head coach Kalen DeBoer is well-beloved and the defense is loaded in the front-seven. If a rebuilt OL and secondary (thank you transfer portal) hits, then the Huskies could emerge as the most complete team in the Pac-12 this season. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: Outside of Ohio State, the Huskies are the only team in the country to return two 1,000 yard receivers — Rome Odzune and Jalen McMillian. 

12. Tennessee

After a resurgent 11-2 season, the Vols are hoping to continue their return to relevancy under third-year head coach Josh Heupel. Joe Milton replaces Hendon Hooker at quarterback, but the expectation is for the Vols to still field one the best offenses in the country this fall. Can the defense make a leap — especially in the secondary — for Tennessee to be a real SEC  contender in 2023?

ONE THING TO KNOW: Milton has zero interceptions in 17 games at Tennessee. He’s incrementally improved his accuracy from 51% to 64.5%, too.

13. Notre Dame

The Irish had a frustrating Year 1 under Marcus Freeman, but a hit-or-miss offense should be much improved in 2023 with ACC-record-setter Sam Hartman now the shot-caller at quarterback. Although the schedule is tough (Ohio State, USC and Clemson), the Irish could emerge as a CFP darkhorse if they pull-off an upset or two this fall. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: The Irish will be better offensively with Hartman, but it won’t matter if they don’t get more stops in the red zone. Notre Dame allowed touchdowns on 79.4% of red zone — DEAD LAST nationally. 

14. Oregon

While the Pac-12 media was a tad down on the Ducks, this is still a team that went 10-3 last season and returns quarterback Bo Nix and a host of former blue-chip recruits. The roster has been overhauled thanks to the transfer portal (hello notables such as wideouts Traeshon Holden (Alabama) and Tez Johnson (Troy), former 5-star end Jordan Burch (South Carolina) and corner Khyree Jackson (Alabama), but this is a team that could absolutely win the Pac-12 if its defense improves — especially agains the pass and getting after the quarterback (only 18 sacks last season).

ONE THING TO KNOW: Bo Nix had 43 total touchdowns in 2022 — 10 more than he had COMBINED in his previous two season at Auburn. 

15. Utah

Can the Utes three-peat in their final season in the Pac-12? Their upside is wholly dependent on the health of quarterback Cam Rising, who is questionable for their season-opener against Florida next month. Kyle Whittingham’s team is set at tailback and safety, and the biggest hurdle to another conference title is a daunting schedule that includes 11 Power 5 opponents. 

ONE THING TO KNOW: The last team to win three consecutive Pac-12 titles was Chip Kelly’s Oregon Ducks from 2009-11.

The rest of the predicted Preseason AP Top 25:

16. Kansas State
17. Oregon State
18. Wisconsin
19. Oklahoma
20. TCU
21. North Carolina
22. Ole Miss
23. Texas Tech
24. Tulane
25. Texas A&M

Others “receiving votes”: Iowa, South Carolina, UTSA, Arkansas, UCLA, NC State