Predicting winners of college football's biggest 2024 quarterback competitions

Fall camp is in full swing around the country, with most programs about three weeks out from their season opener. Unlike almost every other season in college football history though, there’s a real dearth of intriguing quarterback battles. 

Thanks in large part to the transfer portal and NIL, most teams’ QB1 has long been decided in advance of the 2024 season. More and more veterans (see: Dillon Gabriel at Oregon, DJ Uiagalelei at Florida State and Cam Ward at Miami) are extending their careers by playing an extra year in college. While promising youngsters like Nico Iameleava at Tennessee or Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma have been thrust into starting roles — or else those programs risked their former 5-star signees transferring elsewhere. 

Still, there are a few battles ongoing, including three programs with legitimate hopes of claiming a spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Reigning national champion Michigan has yet to name a starter. The same goes for the Wolverines’ arch-rivals (and 2024 offseason champs) Ohio State. 

Boise State, my pick to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff this year, is unsettled at QB1, while a couple other programs — including Nebraska — look close to naming a starter. 

Here’s a look at the six biggest quarterback battles in college football — with a prediction of how each competition will shake out at the end of preseason practices. 

Auburn

Contenders: Payton Thorne vs. Holden Geriner vs. Hank Brown
Hugh Freeze has yet to name a starter for the 2024 season, but all signs point to former Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne ultimately retaining the job. Thorne is the incumbent starter and exited spring practice in “pole position,” and all indications are Thorne has continued to separate himself in fall camp. Freeze has been flip-floppy with Throne, but Auburn has done a great job this offseason making sure its quarterback is supported by a much stronger cast of playmakers (5-star freshman wideout Cam Coleman, Georgia State transfer Robert Lewis and Penn State transfer KeAndre Lambert-Smith.

The Tigers ranked last in the SEC in passing in 2023 with Thorne, so if he struggles early one of the youngsters could get a look. 

Prediction: Thorne

Boise State

Contenders: Malachi Nelson vs. Maddux Madsen
With electric tailback Ashton Jeanty back in Boise, the Broncos are expected to vie for the Mountain West title — and with it a coveted G5 spot in the 12-team playoff. They return a strong defense and added key transfers from the portal like former 5-star wideout Chris Marshall. But first they have a QB battle to sort out. New head coach Spencer Danielson has yet to pick a guy between former USC 5-star signee Malachi Nelson and Maddux Madsen. With Madsen still limited with his knee injury during the spring, Nelson received the lion’s share of reps with the 1s. But the competition has been going in earnest during fall camp.

Madsen beat out Taylen Green for the QB1 job last year, but his hold on the job last just one week. He saw action in nine games, finishing the season with nine touchdowns and three picks before injuring his knee. Reports suggest he currently has a slight edge over Nelson for the starting gig again in 2024. 

Prediction: Madsen starts the opener against Georgia Southern, but if he struggles badly Week 2 against Oregon, then Nelson could get a look before the Broncos start their MW schedule at the end of September. 

Michigan

Contenders: Alex Orji vs. Jack Tuttle vs. Davis Warren
The reigning national champs have a lot going on right now, including an ongoing quarterback competition between Alex Orji, seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle and Davis Warren. The former walk-on Warren actually looked the best in the Wolverines’ Maize & Blue Game and is probably the best pure passer of the group, too, but those on the ground have intimated that Orji has shown an impressive command of the offense — in addition to a tantalizing skill-set that’s akin to the likes of Jalen Milroe.

And yet, Orji hasn’t won the job outright just yet. He’s thrown just one career pass in two seasons, and while on track to start Week 1 against Fresno State, Michigan could enter the season with a platoon between Orji and one of either Warren or Tuttle. 

Prediction: Orji, but multiple quarterbacks play the first few weeks — including against No. 3 Texas — before Sherrone Moore names a full-time starter.

Ohio State

Contenders: Will Howard vs. Devin Brown vs. Julian Sayin
The Buckeyes entered fall camp with five quarterbacks taking snaps, but after roughly a week’s worth of practices, their coveted portal signee Will Howard has reportedly separated himself from the pack. The Kansas State transfer was “challenged” by head coach Ryan Day to  change his body and improve his conditioning, and Day has been effusive in his praise for how Howard showed up to fall camp.

“He looks different. He’s moving different,” Day said. While Sayin is likely the future QB1 for the Buckeyes, Howard always had a leg-up in the competition for 2024. The fact he’s answered Day’s call and has the tools (i.e., wheels) to improve one of OSU’s biggest weaknesses from last season (red zone offense).

Prediction: Howard

Nebraska

Contenders: Heinrich Haarberg vs. Dylan Raiola
Matt Rhule hasn’t named a starter for Nebraska’s pivotal 2024 season, but he’s tipped his hand more than once with the way he’s talked about 5-star signee Dylan Raiola. While Haarberg was 5-1 as the Cornhuskers’ starter last season, he averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt and had as many interceptions (7) as touchdowns.

Raiola is the most talented quarterback in Lincoln since … Taylor Martinez? Maybe dating back even further? Considering Raiola has perhaps the biggest NIL deal on the roster, has quickly taken on a leadership role and represents the present and future hopes of the Cornhuskers’ program, he looks to be given every opportunity to become the “savior” so many believe he’s destined to be. 

Prediction: Raiola

North Carolina

Contenders: Max Johnson vs. Conner Harrell vs. Jacolby Criswell
Perhaps the single toughest 2024 quarterback battle to handicap looms in Chapel Hill. While Criswell, a former Tar Heel who left for Arkansas before returning to UNC, was brought in after spring practice — suggesting Mack Brown wasn’t overly pleased with his current options under center — word is the boomerang transfer isn’t currently a serious option for the job.

The battle between Johnson and Harrell, who started the Duke’s Mayo Bowl game but struggled with two picks, hasn’t resulted in a named starter yet, though. Johnson has a major leg-up in experience (and his ability to protect the football), but Harrell can challenge opponents with his legs and offers more upside. 

Prediction: Johnson gets the nod Week 1 on the road at Minnesota, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if multiple quarterbacks (perhaps all three if Criswell gets in shape come midseason) start a game this fall.