Preseason Stock Report: 25 college football teams I’m bullish, bearish or unsure about in 2024
We had our appetizer with Week 0, but we get the eat the whole hog this week.
From Thursday to next Monday, there’s 96 games, and while Week 1 doesn’t feature quite as many bangers as past seasons, there’s still some juicy matchups that will set the tone for the 2024 season.
As was the case last year, every Monday during the season I’ll look back at the week that was and project forward to the weeks to come with a Stock Report. Whose stock — be it team, coach, player, assistant or unit — is up? Whose stock is holding, and who’s stock is trending downward?
To kickoff the 2024 Stock Report series, I’m going to run through 25 teams — be it offseason darlings, presumed championship contenders or teams not projected to make a bowl game — I’m bullish, bearish or unsure about as we put the preseason in the rear view mirror.
But remember: As Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech reminded us, we don’t actually know anything about these teams before they play a game. Here’s what I think about 25 schools in 2024.
📈STOCK UP — Teams I’m bullish on in 2024
Georgia — Kirby Smart’s team hasn’t lost a regular-season game in three years, and the Bulldogs return the same head coach, both coordinators and starting quarterback from 2023.
Ohio State — The Buckeyes might not allow three touchdowns before they play at Oregon in Week 5. They’re loaded defensively, and Chip Kelly + Will Howard at quarterback should spice up a ground game that lacked punch at times last season.
Oregon — Dan Lanning can’t be Washington, but the Huskies will be bad in 2024, so that problem should go away. The Ducks can immediately win the Big Ten in Year 1.
Alabama — The Crimson Tide are projected to win fewer than 10 games for the first time since 2007, but I’m banking on Kalen DeBoer doing what he always does regardless of where he’s coaching at — which is rarely lose. Alabama can absolutely get back to Atlanta this fall.
Michigan — I don’t think the Wolverines have enough horsepower to repeat as national champions, but Sherrone Moore teams still has enough bite (especially defensively) to win 9-10 games and make the playoff.
Tennessee — The Vols have one of the best defensive lines in the country, an X-factor at quarterback with Nico Iamaleava and a schedule that sets up Josh Heupel’s team for a 2022 repeat-run for a special season.
Texas A&M — Mike Elko won nine games at Duke and now he takes over a program that still boasts one of the Top 10 rosters in the country. The Aggies likely lack the depth to make the CFP, but they’re going to snipe a team or two (hello, Texas!?)
Virginia Tech — The Hokies rank No. 5 nationally in returning production, and now Brent Pry’s team will get a full season with Kyron Drones at quarterback. In a watered-down ACC, Va. Tech could win 10 games and make a darkhorse run to Charlotte.
Iowa State — Speaking of returning production: The Cyclones are my pick to make the Big 12 title because they bring back nine defensive starters off a unit that led the conference in yards per play + promising quarterback Rocco Becht.
📉STOCK DOWN — Teams I’m bearish on in 2024
Missouri — The Tigers have the schedule and look of a CFP team, but I’m skeptical they’ve adequately replaced five NFL Draft picks on defense and their defensive coordinator.
Notre Dame — There’s a lot of pressure on Marcus Freeman to deliver in Year 3, and the Irish are already down to a true freshman at left tackle before a Week 1 game against Texas A&M’s ferocious pass rush.
LSU — Brian Kelly seriously upgraded the Tigers’ defensive staff (Blake Baker, Kevin Peoples, Bo Davis), but the personnel is largely the same. They won’t be *as bad* as they were in 2023, but the offense is going to regress too without the all-world season from Jayden Daniels.
Oklahoma — This is less about the Sooners’ team, which remains quite talented, and more about their schedule. They got the short-end of the stick in the move to the SEC, and someone has to take some losses. Add in the OL concerns and uncertainty at quarterback with a first-year starter.
Arizona — I love the Blue Brother’s band of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillian, but can they play the same tune with Dino Babers as their offensive coordinator? The Wildcats also lost a ton defensively off last year’s 10-3 team.
North Carolina — The Tar Heels underwhelmed with Sam Howell and Drake Maye at quarterback and now they’re set to rollout a two-QB system in Week 1 at Minnesota. Yea, that’t ain’t it.
SMU — A Week 0 overreaction? Possibly, but as someone who thought the Mustangs could be frisky this fall, they looked terrible against a bad Nevada team. Preston Stone found some juice late, but SMU’s offensive and defensive lines (both chalked with transfers) underwhelmed most of the night.
Rutgers — While I don’t have much faith in former Gophers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, this is mostly a byproduct of a tough preseason for the Scarlett Knights. They’ve suffered multiple injuries in fall camp, including losing star linebacker and team captain Mohamed Toure to a torn ACL.
STOCK HOLDING — Teams I’m unsure about in 2024
Ole Miss — The Rebels have their most talented team since the Kennedy Administration and should make the CFP, but what if the chemistry never gels? What happens if Ole Miss doesn’t have crazy fumble luck again this year (11 fumbles only one lost in 2023) and isn’t perfect in one-score games (4-0)?
Clemson — Outside of Cade Klubnik, I like the Tigers’ starting 22. But considering that quarterback is the most important position and Clemson lacks the depth of other playoff hopes, I just don’t know about the team’s ultimate ceiling this year.
USC — I trust Lincoln Riley to get quality quarterback play from Miller Moss or Jayden Maiava, but I can’t bet on the come that a Riley-led team is suddenly going to start playing better defense in a tougher league. I need to see it first. D’anton Lynn may have switched LA sidelines but he didn’t bring his UCLA front-seven with him.
Louisville — Jeff Brohm took full-advantage of the Cards’ cake schedule in 2023, leading his alma mater to their first ACC Championship Game appearance. Now he’s portal’d in a totally new offense (with star wideout Caullin Lacy out for two months with a collarbone injury) — signing the second-most transfers in the country. But the whole season hinges on Tyler Shough’s health. That seems dicey, no?
Auburn — Hugh Freeze did a lot right this offseason — upgraded parts of the coaching staff, became the offense’s primary play-caller, improved the roster — but I’m still scratching my head at the decision to stick with Payton Throne at quarterback. Why isn’t Jordan McCloud or Dequan Finn on this team? I like the Tigers’ future … in 2025.
Nebraska — The Cornhuskers have the schedule to get off to a hot start in 2024 (7-0 with a trip to Ohio State), but they’ve suffered a couple significant preseason injuries and are starting a freshman quarterback in Dylan Raiola. Can they cut down the turnovers? Will Tony White’s 3-3-5 defense be as effective now that the league has seen it?
Miami — A year ago, Colorado head coach Deion Sanders challenged the nation with, “Do you believe?” Now everyone is asking the same question about Mario Cristobal’s team. On paper, the Hurricanes should probably win the ACC. They could also lose at Florida in Week 1 and get beat by Georgia Tech and Louisville again.
Florida — Despite a 4.5 win-total, Billy Napier has assembled a roster good enough to go bowling. The problem is the schedule. And porous special teams play. And iffy gameday management. If the latter two have been addressed then Napier will be back in 2025. If not?
BONUS TEAM!!!!
I realized at the wrap of this piece that I totally forgot about Penn State, who I have barely missing the playoff this season. Why am I shorting the Nittany Lions? Well, what if Andy Kotelnicki is 2023 Garrett Riley — Optically/narratively, the best offseason hire but the results don’t change? Penn State’s defense should remain awesome but if the offense still can’t do anything against competent defenses then James Franklin will be facing tough questions again come the end of the year.