Pressing Questions: Can UNC make the playoff, Who has the best win so far, What to make of Dan Lanning's 4th-down decisions?

Lots of good, meaty questions for the Week 8 mailbag. Can North Carolina make the playoff? Who has the best win of the 2023 season? All that and more. 

As always, you can submit a question via my internet mailbox at [email protected] or send a DM/Tweet reply @JesseReSimonton.

This week’s questions…

Do you think UNC can make the playoff this year? — Jordan 

North Carolina has been among the most impressive teams in 2023, as the Tar Heels might be the lone Power 5 team with five Power 5 wins by double-digits. I can’t think of another one, at least. 

Their defense — the butt of many jokes here and elsewhere last season — is much improved. A year ago, UNC ranked last in the ACC in yards per play, scoring and pass defense. They had just 17 sacks.

Through six games in 2023, they’re now in the middle of the ACC in almost every defensive metric, and they have 16 sacks already. They rank 54th in success rate after checking in at No. 126th in the country in 2022. 

Their defense is hardly otherworldly but with Drake Maye, Omarion Hampton and (hello!) Devontez Walker leading a Top 10 offense, the Tar Heels just need to be serviceable on that side of the ball for them to win most weeks, and they are. 

So can they make the playoff? They can, technically. But I don’t think they will. Maye presents enough firepower for UNC to beat anyone, but frankly, the future Top 5 NFL just started playing well in the last few weeks. There’s been a lack of consistency there that leaves me wanting a bit. 

UNC just waxed a solid Miami team, and Walker is clearly a difference-making dude. But to make the playoff, North Carolina probably needs to run the table or go 12-1  with a win over Florida State in the title game. 

Duke and Clemson are still on the regular-season schedule, but I have the Tar Heels making the ACC Championship for the second straight season. I just don’t believe they’re better than the Seminoles.

What is the better win: Washington beating Oregon at home or Oklahoma beating Texas at a neural site? — Sanders 

We’re splitting hairs here because both are very good wins, but I lean Washington over Oregon. I know the Huskies were at home, but the Ducks came into the game as one of just two teams in the country that ranked in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. To date, Bo Nix has been a better quarterback than Quinn Ewers, too. 

To flesh out this question, I’d argue Washington, Oklahoma and Texas have the best 1-2-3 wins in the country so far this season. 

Through seven weeks, my Top 10 best wins are:

1. Washington over Oregon
2. Oklahoma over Texas (Red River Rivalry)
3. Texas at Alabama 
4. Ohio State at Notre Dame
5. Florida State over LSU (in Orlando)
6. Notre Dame over USC
7. Florida State at Clemson
8. Duke at Clemson
9. North Carolina over Miami
10. Notre Dame at Duke

Apologies to Ole Miss, Louisville, Oregon State, Utah, Missouri, Alabama and others, who have all had at least one solid win, too.  

Which teams look good right now but will falter by season’s end?  And which teams will turn around a disappointing first half with a strong close? — Lewis 

When peaking at the latest AP Poll Top 25, the teams that jump out are Utah and Duke. 

The Utes have survived a litany of injuries to start out 6-1, but I don’t know how many wins they’ll nab if quarterback Cam Rising doesn’t ever return. They still have USC (who yes is a pretender but can score), Washington, Oregon and Arizona on the schedule. Without Rising, I’d bet on an 8-4 season over a return trip to the Pac-12 title game. 

Similarly, Duke is 6-1 and waiting for starting quarterback Riley Leonard to return from a high-ankle sprain. Leonard may be back this weekend against Florida State, but if his mobility is limited, does that make a difference for the Blue Devils? Duke still has games against FSU, Louisville, North Carolina and Pitt remaining. 

Mike Elko is too good of a coach to totally let the season crater, but like Utah, 8-4 seems on the table. 

As for bounce-back teams: Would it surprise anyone if Clemson, coming off a bye, won at Miami this weekend to kickstart a second-half stretch where it finishes 10-2? 

Kansas State is flirting with the idea of turning the keys to 5-star freshman Avery Johnson, and outside of a trip to Texas in two weeks, the Wildcats have a very favorable schedule the rest of the season. 

For a team that hasn’t been ranked all season, what about Nebraska? The Cornhuskers are just 3-3, but they’re coming off a bye week after beating Illinois 20-7, they’ve benched turnover-machine QB Jeff Sims, and they have winnable games the next six teams on their schedule — four of which are at home. Matt Rhule can still take Nebraska bowling in Year 1.

What did you think of Dan Lanning’s fourth-down decisions? Did he cost Oregon the game?

Andy Staples and I discussed this in length on the Instant Reaction show Saturday night after Washington beat the Ducks, and I’ll repeat what I said then: I take zero umbrage with most of Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness. 

Yes, Oregon went 0-3 on 4th-downs in a 36-33 loss, but that doesn’t mean the decisions were poor process. The results weren’t there, but according to the analytics, the decisions were still the right call. Oregon had a positive 4th down EPA (expected points added) despite going 0-3. 

But let’s ignore both the numbers and results for a second (I know that’s hard!). Let’s just look at each 4th-down decision in its proper context. 

The lone move I quibbled with was the decision to go for a touchdown late in the 1st half. Down four points, Lanning turned down a field goal at the 3-yard line with six seconds remaining. Oregon was getting the ball back to start the second half, and there was no benefit here of pinning Wazzu deep, which is precisely what happened on the second failed 4th-down call. The Ducks were again stopped in the red zone. But they immediately forced a punt, got the ball back and hit a shot play for a score. 

The move to go for the win late in the 4th quarter was the right call, too. Sure, in a perfect world, Oregon punts and the ball lands inside the 3-yard line. But how often does that actually happen? Michael Penix Jr. drove 50 yards in two plays. If the punt has a net of 20 yards, Wazzu’s buzzsaw offense probably covers that ground quickly, too. 

Instead, Lanning left the ball in the hands of his best player to win the game. The decision also made sure that if Oregon didn’t get the conversion, it would have enough time to try to tie the game if Washington did indeed score. And he was right. Nix didn’t complete the pass, but after Washington scored in under a minute, the Ducks still had enough time to set up a makable game-tying kick. 

Much like a NFL QB having a rat game on Monday Night Football when everyone’s watching, Oregon’s 4th-down failures were simply magnified because of the marquee nature of the game. It was mostly solid process. Maybe next time the results will be better, too. 

Why do you think the SEC is down this year? Seems like no team will escape with only 1 loss. — Matthew 

In a bit of a surprise, scoring is actually up in the SEC in 2023 (every team is averaging at least 28 points per game vs. in 2022 when five programs averaged less than 25 points per game), but overall, the league’s QB play has been worse, shrinking the margins between most teams.

Outside of LSU’s Jayden Daniels, there are no other elite QBs in the SEC this season. 

Every team in the SEC has solid to awesome DLs. Every team (maybe sans Auburn) has electric playmakers (even Vanderbilt has a trio of impact receivers). 

But a year ago, the conference had Bryce Young, Hendon Hooker, Stetson Bennett, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson as QB1s.

Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky all have definite downgrades at QB this season. Graham Mertz has been better than expected for Florida, but there’s an obvious ceiling there. Meanwhile, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson has been worse than he was in 2022, same for Will Rogers at Mississippi State.

Carson Beck has been solid, and Georgia, with the rest of its roster talent (even despite losing Brock Bowers) still is the SEC’s best chance to be either an undefeated or a one-loss team by season’s end.