Pressing questions for the Top 10 College Football Playoff contenders in 2023

Cincinnati crashed the party in 2021, and TCU rode a storybook season to the national championship game last fall, but the majority of the College Football Playoff teams are likely to come from the preseason favorites this fall.

The two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs headline the Top 10 programs’ championship odds, but USC, Florida State and Texas all are in the mix, too.

While each team has a litany of reasons why they could win the title in 2023, what are the most pressing questions standing in their way?

Georgia: Can the Mike Bobo–Carson Beck pairing replicate the offensive success of Todd Monken and Stetson Bennett?

The Bulldogs are the favorite to win their third-straight national championship — which would be an unparalleled accomplishment in modern college football history. Kirby Smart’s team is perhaps the most well-rounded roster in America, but it’s not an infallible bunch without questions. 

Stetson Bennett wasn’t just some Hollywood feel-good story. He was really good in 2022, throwing for more than 4,000 yards with 37 total touchdowns. 

Beck earned the starting job and there’s confidence from those in Athens that he has the skill set to elevate a Georgia offense that ranked in the Top 10 last season in yards per play, explosiveness and scoring.

Bobo takes over as play-caller after spending last season under Monken as an analyst. He has a history of offensive success at Georgia, and now he has more weapons at his disposal than at any other time as an OC.  

Can he coordinate another Top 10 offense? Will he dial ups the right plays like Monken did in the comebacks against Missouri and Ohio State?

Michigan: Can J.J. McCarthy produce an explosive aerial attack on obvious passing downs?

The Wolverines have very few holes in 2023. They should be a dominant rushing team. They have a deep and experienced OL. Their defense has potential All-Americans at all three levels. But to both make the CFP — and then win a game or two in the playoff — they need their quarterback to truly live up to Jim Harbaugh’s lofty expectations. 

McCarthy was good in his first season as Michigan’s starter in 2022. He beat Ohio State. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. He had 22 touchdowns to just five picks.  But much of the sophomore’s success came on layups and play-action shots.

His performance against the Buckeyes (12 of 22 for 263 yards and three touchdowns) was more on what OSU did (i.e., leave guys wide open) than some other-worldly outing. The Wolverines didn’t show a ton of faith in McCarthy’s ability to consistently beat defenses when they knew Michigan had to pass. He had the nation’s No. 72 passer rating on 3rd downs. He struggled with accuracy in the red zone, finishing 97th in completion percentage.

Those numbers must improve if Michigan hopes to “chase perfection” in 2023.

Alabama: Do the Tide have a championship-caliber QB?

While others are down on the Crimson Tide this fall, I think Alabama will have one of the best defenses in the nation, and its OL and RB rooms will be better than they were in 2022, too. There are valid concerns at receiver, but the flashing red light is the unknowns at quarterback. 

Bryce Young was Superman for Alabama last season, and while no one is expecting Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson or Tyler Buchner to perform at that level, we don’t even know if any are capable of being even a top-half quarterback in the SEC. Milroe and Buchner haven’t played a ton but both have been plagued by turnovers in limited opportunities.

Simpson hasn’t played at all. The Tide hasn’t been this uncertain at quarterback since Jalen Hurts came off the bench to beat USC as a freshman in the 2016 opener. 

Nick Saban doesn’t need to know the answer to this question in Week 1, but with Texas coming to Tuscaloosa the next weekend, he’d better have a strong indicator, or else those doubting the Tide this year could be right.  

Ohio State: Can Jim Knowles get improved play in the secondary?

Regardless of who Ryan Day settles on at quarterback, Ohio State is going to score points in 2023. Wideouts Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka & Co., are too good. The tailback room is too deep. 

The larger concern for the Buckeyes is whether Knowles has solved OSU’s propensity to get torched in the secondary against passing offenses with a pulse. The Buckeyes allowed 7.2 yards per attempt in 2022 — 11th in the Big Ten.

They surrendered 30 passing plays over 20 yards, 85th nationally. Thirteen times they were hit for explosives over 40 yards, 111th in the country. In their two losses to Michigan and Ohio State, the Buckeyes got gashed for eight passing plays over 40 yards. In two games!

OSU has talent in the secondary with corners Denzel Burke, Jordan Hancock and Davison Igbinosun, and they like what they have in nickel/safety transfer Jyarie Brown. But now the production needs to match the group’s upside. Knowles calls games with risk-it-or-biscuit approach, and that might need to change in 2023, too. 

LSU: No longer DBU, will Transfer U in the secondary be better in 2023?

The Tigers are on the shortlist of favorites to win the national title this fall because they return quarterback Jayden Daniels, all five starting offensive linemen, top SEC wideout Malik Nabers, both coordinators and star defensive talentHarold Perkins, Maason Smith and Mekhi Wingo. 

But none of that will matter for Brian Kelly & Co., if LSU doesn’t hit on its latest batch of plug-and-play transfers in the secondary. The once proud DBU has resorted to mining the portal for impact corners for the second straight offseason, bringing in five transfers. 

Well, Ohio State transfer JK Johnson is already sidelined for the season, and former 5-star Texas A&M corner Denver Harris has been suspended. LSU is really counting on FCS All-American Zy Alexander and Syracuse transfer Duce Chestnut to be ready immediately. It would really help if former 5-star Sage Ryan was a valuable contributor, too. 

With Florida State, Mississippi State, Arkansas and Ole Miss all in the first month of the season, this is a unit that will be tested out the gate in September.

USC: Have all the portal additions solved a leaky run defense?

The Trojans stand to have one of the best offenses in the country again with Lincoln Riley calling the shots and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams back at quarterback.

So their entire playoff hopes center on their ability to navigate a more difficult schedule and play better defense — specifically against the run. 

USC’s pass defense was poor in 2022, but it at least forced a ton of interceptions. The Trojans were a sieve against the run though, ranking 124th in rushing success rate, 117th in yards per carry and 115th in touchdowns allowed (29). In their final two games of the season, Utah and Tulane combined to gash USC on the ground for 528 yards and seven touchdowns. 

There’s excitement around the additions DL Bear Alexander from Georgia, Jack Sullivan from Purdue and Anthony Lucas from Texas A&M, as well as All-Big 12 linebacker Mason Cobb, but Alex Grinch’s unit (minus Alexander) still got torched on the ground in USC’s spring game (220 yards on less than 25 carries). 

Penn State: Is Drew Allar ready for primetime?

With Kalen King, Abdul Carter, Chop Robinson and a host of other impact playmakers, the Nittany Lions might have the best defense in the Big Ten in 2023. Their tailback tandem of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen could be tops in the league, too.

While there are some questions around their offensive line (Olu Fashanu is awesome but the rest of the unit wasn’t great in pass pro in 2022, finishing with the nation’s 74th pressure rate allowed), the keystone to Penn State’s season is the former 5-star recruit under center. 

Allar is a 6-5, 240-pound bulldozer at quarterback, and he flashed a freakish skill-set in limited opportunities in 2022. Still, he’s thrown just 60 passes, completing just 58.3 percent and averaging less than 6.0 yards per attempt.

James Franklin is counting on Allar to be the fighter pilot at quarterback that takes the Nittany Lions to new heights, can beat Ohio State and Michigan and ends his ugly record against Top 10 opponents at Penn State (3-15). 

Florida State: Can the Seminoles beat ranked teams?

The Seminoles have all the makings of a CFP contender in 2023: Led by quarterback Jordan Travis and the nation’s top edge rusher Jared Verse, they return Top 10 production in the country. Mike Norvell also signed a Top 10 transfer portal haul, headlined by Michigan State wideout Keon Coleman.

FSU’s OL is the deepest it’s been in a decade and the front seven (while still a bit thin) should be better with the return of a healthy Fabien Lovett and the additions of Brandon Fiske and Gilbert Edmond. 

Florida State won 10 games in 2022, but outside of the Week 1 win over eventual SEC West champ LSU, it beat up on a bunch of bad ACC teams. 

Can Norvell win games against Top 25 foes this fall? He’s just 1-7 at FSU vs. ranked opponents (0-3 in 2022), and the ‘Noles draw No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Clemson in the first month of the season. Lose both and you’re out of the CFP picture in a flash. 

Clemson: Will Garrett Riley immediately spark the Tigers’ offense back to their pre-2021 heights?

The Tigers enter 2023 looking up at rival Florida State in the preseason polls, but they host the Seminoles in late September and have a navigable path to get back to the ACC Championship game. 

The defense figures to be really good again, but can the offense return to the top of the conference when it was making (and winning) the CFP? While their offense improved from the doldrums of 2021 (33.2 points per game vs. 26.3), Dabo Swinney made the shrewd decision to upgrade at coordinator by bringing in Riley from TCU. 

Whether it was DJ Uiagalelei or Cade Klubnik at quarterback, Clemson struggled to consistently generate explosive plays. Tailback Will Shipley was a one-man band at times, but there’s hope that Riley’s version of the ‘Air Raid’ can do what he did with the Horned Frogs in 2022: Scheme up wide-open gashers. TCU had 91 plays over 20 yards, good for No. 4 nationally. Clemson ranked 66th. Receiver is still an issue for the Tigers, but Antonio Williams has real promise and 6-7 tight end Jake Briningstool figures to be a mismatch in the middle of the field. 

With his system and play-calling acumen, Can Riley get the most out of a group that’s underachieved the last two seasons?

Texas: Can Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns avoid second-half meltdowns and win close games?

The Longhorns have the best roster in the Big 12, and it’s due time for Steve Sarkisian to produce better results with a special group. 

Texas has the quarterback. It has the best receiver room outside of Columbus, Ohio. The offensive line returns four starters. The front seven is its best in years. There are no more excuses, which is why it’s up to Sark & Co., to maximize all the talent they’ve assembled. 

Sarkisian has famously never won 10 games and that has a lot to do with his teams’ propensity for second-half meltdowns and close losses. Texas went 8-5 in 2022, coughing up leads to Alabama, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State — losing all three games by a combined 12 points. The Longhorns dominated quarters 1-3 last season but were outscored in the fourth/overtime, resulting in five one-score losses. 

Sarkisian has lost 11 of his last 15 one-score games, and there’s no way Texas will be “back” if those results continue.