Projecting a 12-team College Football Playoff after final CFP rankings reveal

If there was ever a year to expand to a 12-team playoff a little bit early it was in 2023, with the results of the College Football Playoff selection process shocking many. Florida State was left out despite going 13-0 in the ACC.

That snub won’t happen in the future, when the College Football Playoff shifts to 12 teams. With more teams, there will be considerably less heartbreak for teams who just miss the cut line than what the Seminoles are experiencing this season.

But what would a 12-team playoff look like this year? On3 organizes the current rankings to provide a glimpse at how things would theoretically shake out.

No. 1 Michigan – Bye

Michigan locked up the No. 1 seed just ahead of Washington, but in the 12-team format that would come with some significant benefits. In the new format, the top four teams will receive a first-round bye, no small deal if you’re trying to win a national title.

The Wolverines will be looking to conquer their CFP demons after two straight years making the playoff but failing to reach the national championship game. In a 12-team playoff, the Wolverines would still have two steps to get there, assuming they’d locked up the bye.

No. 2 Washington – Bye

The Huskies reached the College Football Playoff for the second time since its inception, with one of their best teams in school history. Quarterback Michael Penix has been elite throughout the year, in close contention for the 2023 Heisman Trophy.

He’d have the chance to take some extra time off and study the tape of his upcoming opponent in a 12-team format, getting that first-round bye like Michigan. This year, Washington will have to take on Texas in a semifinal game.

No. 3 Texas – Bye

Perhaps one of the first surprises on Selection Sunday, Texas managed to leap all the way to No. 3 after a convincing win in the Big 12 Championship Game. Going forward, a 12-1 season as a conference champion is likely to produce a decent chance at locking up a first-round bye.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers and company will be looking to take care of business and firmly cement that Texas is indeed back against Washington. It won’t be easy and will certainly be a quality test of the Texas defense.

No. 4 Alabama – Bye

The final team in this year’s College Football Playoff, things would hit a little differently for Alabama in a 12-team playoff. There would still be an immense amount of relief to have earned a bye, but not quite like this year when their inclusion in the playoff itself was anything but assured going into Selection Sunday.

Now the real question is what the Crimson Tide can do with their playoff berth. They’ll have the unenviable task of taking on Michigan all the way out west for a spot in the national championship game.

No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Oklahoma – Winner plays Alabama

The first slot where we’d produce an actual playoff game in a 12-team format, this year would pit Florida State against Oklahoma, with the winner set to take on Alabama. This would be a quality matchup, though Florida State being without quarterback Jordan Travis would still put a damper on it.

The Sooners would get a chance to prove they belonged in the playoff despite losing two games. But we’ve seen Oklahoma is capable of knocking off some top-notch competition thanks to its win over Texas. That would make this one all the more compelling.

No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Ole Miss – Winner plays Texas

In our second first-round College Football Playoff game in a theoretical 12-team format this year, Georgia would get to take on Ole Miss in a regular-season rematch. And that might be a bit of an unfortunate matchup for the Bulldogs, given how badly they beat the Rebels the first time around.

You have to figure Ole Miss would be quite motivated to prove the first game was an aberration. Would that be enough to make up for the 35-point margin the first time around? Hard to say, but this matchup might command considerably less attention than others.

No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Penn State – Winner plays Washington

The second rematch in the first round of the playoffs, Ohio State would be set to take on Penn State. The Buckeyes would get to host the Nittany Lions for the second time this season, after beating them 20-12 back in mid-October.

Still, a first-round playoff game would be a significantly better consolation prize for Ohio State going 11-1 than a New Year’s Six appearance in the Cotton Bowl. It just may not make for the most exciting watch for viewers.

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Missouri – Winner plays Michigan

The final theoretical playoff game would pit Oregon against Missouri in a game that would be thoroughly intriguing. Missouri has the nation’s leading rusher in Cody Schrader, while Oregon has one of the nation’s most elite dual-threat quarterbacks in Bo Nix.

This season is already a huge win for Missouri, which will take on Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. But imagine how much more amped Tigers fans would be for a first-round playoff game out on the West coast.

Clearly there are some upsides and downsides to potential matchups in a 12-team College Football Playoff format, and it’ll be interesting to see how much the selection committee jostles around the rankings to avoid rematches like the two we have above just going straight down this year’s rankings. In any case, next year we’ll have an expanded field, and it’s good to get an idea what that might look like.