Projecting the second College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team bracket

Last week saw the debut of the College Football Playoff rankings and, without fail, there are some major shakeups coming this week after another round of riveting games.

Now 11 weeks into the season, resumes are beginning to take more firm shape. And losses are likely to prove brutal for teams hoping to contend for one of the 12 playoff spots.

This week we can add Georgia and Miami to the list of programs who have picked up a loss but remain in CFP contention. We can also likely scratch LSU from the list after a third loss, barring something truly wild.

But a few things are clear, at least.

Oregon will be the undisputed No. 1 team, sporting a 10-0 record and one of the better strength of schedules in the country.

Boise State is likely to remain the top Group of Five team, in position to potentially nab a playoff spot.

What else can we glean from the projected College Football Playoff rankings? Well, let’s dive into that below, starting with our complete projection of the College Football Playoff rankings.

The official rankings will be updated on Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Here’s our crack at what the second Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings will look like, plus the 12-team bracket.

Remember: These are two very different things. Just because a team is ranked No. 3 does not mean it is guaranteed the No. 3 seed. We’re projecting the rankings and bracket based on how we believe the committee will arrange both on Tuesday.

Note that the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how we project the second College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket:

The Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings 

1. (10-0) Oregon Ducks
2. (8-1) Ohio State Buckeyes
3. (8-1) Texas Longhorns [+2]
4. (8-1) Penn State Nittany Lions [+2]
5. (8-1) Tennessee Volunteers [+2]
6. (10-0) Indiana Hoosiers [+2]
7. (9-0) BYU Cougars [+2]
8. (8-1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish [+2]
9. (9-1) Miami Hurricanes [-5]
10. (7-2) Alabama Crimson Tide [+1]
11. (8-2) Ole Miss Rebels [+5]
12. (7-2) Georgia Bulldogs [-9]
13. (8-1) Boise State Broncos [-1]
14. (8-1) SMU Mustangs [-1]
15. (7-2) Texas A&M Aggies [-1]
16. (7-2) Kansas State Wildcats [+3]
17. (7-2) Colorado Buffaloes [+3]
18. (8-1) Washington State Cougars [+3]
19. (7-2) Clemson Tigers [+4]
20. (9-0) Army Black Knights [+5]
21. (6-3) Louisville Cardinals [+1]
22. (6-3) LSU Tigers [-7]
23. (7-2) Missouri Tigers [+1]
24. (6-3) South Carolina Gamecocks [NR]
25. (8-2) Tulane Green Wave [NR]

Note: Movement listed in brackets based on last week’s ranking.

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): It’s been a while since Oregon played a close game. That was all the way back against Ohio State. Since then it’s been easy cruising for the Ducks, who appeared destined for a Big Ten title game berth. This week will see another cross-country trip to Wisconsin, but Oregon has handled those well so far.

2. Texas (SEC Champion): Top contenders are supposed to take care of mediocre teams, and that’s exactly what Texas did against Florida. Quinn Ewers threw for five touchdowns and looked much sharper, which is a great sign for the Longhorns’ SEC title chances. A couple tricky road trips remain, starting with this week’s venture to Arkansas.

3. BYU (Big 12 Champion): Against all odds and backed up to its own end zone with time ticking down and few ways to stop the clock, BYU somehow dug deep and posted a win with essentially a walk-off, game-winning field goal at Utah. A road trip to Arizona State in two weeks looms large, but the rest of the schedule pits the team against sub-.500 opponents.

4. Miami (ACC Champion): The Hurricanes now have work to do in the ACC after Saturday’s loss, as SMU is now alone in first place in the conference. The league could very well come down to a tiebreaker for the right to go to the title game, which could obviously shift things around in the College Football Playoff picture quite a bit. Miami just has to focus on winning. It’s got Wake Forest and then at Syracuse to close out the slate.

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: The Buckeyes remain in contention in the Big Ten title race, courtesy of an upcoming home date against Indiana. That one comes in two weeks. Few would want to face the Buckeyes in the playoffs, particularly as a five-seed with the right to host a first-round playoff game.

6. Penn State: The Nittany Lions need help when it comes to the Big Ten title race, thanks to the earlier loss to the Buckeyes. Still, the actual College Football Playoff chances for Penn State remain quite high. The closing stretch is also navigable, with road games at Purdue and Minnesota followed by a home finale against Maryland.

7. Tennessee: The Volunteers sit tied with the Texas A&M Aggies in the SEC standings, knowing Texas and Texas A&M must face each other still. That puts Tennessee in excellent position to reach the conference title game if it can take care of business. But that talk should wait at least a week… a road trip to what could be a ticked-off Georgia is up next.

8. Indiana: Just keep winning, baby. The Hoosiers outlasted the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday to claim a 10th victory on the season. The team has everything in front of it, including the path to the Big Ten title game. It’s simple, with a head-to-head matchup against Ohio State looming in two weeks. Take care of that one and a College Football Playoff berth is nearly assured.

9. Notre Dame: It’ll be interesting to see if the committee prefers Notre Dame or Miami around this spot. Both have fairly similar resumes. You could argue Notre Dame has the better win (at Texas A&M) and the worse loss (Northern Illinois). We’ve got the Irish slightly ahead in this projection, but don’t be surprised if the committee keeps the ‘Canes on top either.

10. Alabama: A terrific way to vault yourself back into playoff contention is to knock out another playoff contender, on the road, no less. Saturday’s stomping of LSU was a convincing result, perhaps the most convincing for any team not named Ole Miss this weekend. The Crimson Tide are on the outside looking in when it comes to the conference title game, but if they’re high enough in the College Football Playoff rankings this week that may not be a bad thing.

11. Ole Miss: The Rebels stated their playoff case pretty emphatically on Saturday with a stomping of Georgia. And the remaining schedule sets up quite nicely — a bye week, then a road trip to Florida, followed by the home finale against Mississippi State. If the committee does indeed have Ole Miss as high as we’re projecting, Lane Kiffin and company just need to hold serve to earn a bid.

12. Boise State: The Broncos got all they could handle against Nevada, but they held serve and managed to pull out a gritty win. Everything remains on track for Boise State to be the top Group of Five champion, should things continue to progress. Up next is a trip to face San Jose State.

First Four Out: Georgia, SMU, Texas A&M, Kansas State

Group of 5 Contenders: Washington State, Army, Tulane

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Indiana
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 Miami in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl