Projecting the fifth College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team bracket

The college football regular season is officially in the books, and only conference championship games remain left to alter the College Football Playoff picture.

On3 will attempt to project this week’s CFP rankings and 12-team playoff bracket below.

For a second consecutive week, there were multiple losses from teams that were in the projected playoff field the week prior. This week it was Ohio State and Miami that fell victim, and at least one of them is now in serious jeopardy of missing the field.

Further, there was a Group of Five upset — Tulane falling to Memphis — that essentially made the Mountain West Championship Game a play-in game.

Here’s our crack at what the third Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings will look like, plus the 12-team bracket.

Remember: These are two very different things. Just because a team is ranked No. 3 does not mean it is guaranteed the No. 3 seed. We’re projecting the rankings and bracket based on how we believe the committee will arrange both on Tuesday.

Note that the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how we project the third College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket:

The Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. (12-0) Oregon Ducks
2. (11-1) Texas Longhorns
3. (11-1) Penn State Nittany Lions
4. (11-1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5. (10-2) Georgia Bulldogs
6. (10-2) Tennessee Volunteers
7. (10-2) Ohio State Buckeyes
8. (11-1) SMU Mustangs
9. (11-1) Indiana Hoosiers
10. (11-1) Boise State Broncos
11. (9-3) Alabama Crimson Tide
12. (10-2) Miami Hurricanes
13. (9-3) Ole Miss Rebels
14. (9-3) South Carolina Gamecocks
15. (10-2) Arizona State Sun Devils
16. (10-2) Iowa State Cyclones
17. (10-2) BYU Cougars
18. (9-3) Clemson Tigers
19. (9-3) Missouri Tigers
20. (10-2) UNLV Rebels
21. (9-3) Illinois Fighting Illini
22. (9-3) Colorado Buffaloes
23. (9-3) Syracuse Orange
24. (10-2) Memphis Tigers
25. (10-1) Army Black Knights

Note: Movement listed based on last week’s ranking.

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): The Ducks continue to cruise this season, and Saturday was an easy dismantling of Washington to finish the regular season unbeaten. At this point, Oregon is pretty much assured a spot in the College Football Playoff, it’s just a matter of where. Win the Big Ten title and it’ll be a first-round bye. Lose and Oregon could still end up hosting a playoff game, potentially.

2. Texas (SEC Champion): There were some nervy moments for Texas on Saturday on the road at Texas A&M, but the defense was absolutely lights out and punched Texas’ ticket. A win in the SEC Championship Game wraps up a first-round bye. Texas probably isn’t in as comfortable a position as Oregon if it loses in Atlanta, but it should still be in the field barring a total and complete annihilation.

3. SMU (ACC Champion): Ultimately Miami’s loss didn’t change much for SMU; the scenario was always win out or you’re out. That’s probably how things sit still, because it’s unlikely SMU can withstand a loss and still be in the field, unless it’s a razor-thin margin. But now SMU is our projected ACC champion as the top-ranked team from the conference.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion): There was an outside shot that Tulane could have pushed Boise State for a spot in the playoff, but that ended Saturday with Memphis’ win over the Green Wave. Now it’s really simple. Boise State wins against UNLV and it’s in, probably with a first-round bye. Lose and it’s out.

The At-Larges

5. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were the big beneficiary of Ohio State’s loss, as they moved to the front of the pack behind Oregon and Texas. Saturday’s Big Ten title game will represent a chance to earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. A close loss likely keeps Penn State in the field as well.

6. Notre Dame: With the regular season now wrapped and no conference title game to play, Notre Dame is in the playoff field. The Fighting Irish are almost certainly in position to host a playoff game, too. That’s a fun position to be in as you watch the conference title games play out to see how everything shakes out.

7. Georgia: While the announcers calling Friday night’s game against Georgia Tech were 100% convinced that Georgia is now a playoff team, there remains an outside possibility that the Bulldogs could drop into the danger zone with a lopsided loss in the SEC Championship Game. Of course, the Bulldogs will be looking to lock up a first-round bye with a win. That’d keep things pretty simple.

8. Tennessee: The Volunteers got the best of in-state rival Vanderbilt to finish the regular season 10-2. And with Georgia and Texas off to the SEC Championship Game, Tennessee will watch from the comfort of the couch, knowing it’s in the College Football Playoff at this point. Seeding, though, will matter a good deal. Can Tennessee get a home game in the first round? Our projections of the CFP rankings have that happening.

9. Ohio State: The Buckeyes suffered a brutal loss to their bitter rivals on multiple fronts. First, it took away the chance to win a Big Ten title and, with it, a first-round bye in the playoff. Second, it might well have bumped the Buckeyes low enough to put them on the road in the playoffs in the first round. We’ll see … this is another important ranking to monitor on Tuesday night.

10. Indiana: Like Tennessee, Indiana is in pretty comfortable position as conference championship weekend rolls around. The Hoosiers are probably safely in the field at this point, even if they will likely face a road game in the playoff to start things off. That’s one heck of a season for Curt Cignetti and company.

11. Alabama: Here’s where things get really interesting in the College Football Playoff rankings. We have Alabama projected in the field as the highest-ranked three-loss team. But it could certainly play out differently come Tuesday night. If Miami ranks in front of Alabama this week, the Crimson Tide will be sweating come Selection Sunday.

12. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion): The Sun Devils quietly stormed to the front of the Big 12 pack, putting together some quality wins and showing consistency down the stretch. Now it’s a win-and-you’re-in situation for Arizona State. Iowa State will be the test. There’s also a chance that Arizona State catches and surpasses Boise State by the final ranking … that would bring with it a first-round bye.

First Four Out: Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Iowa State

Group of 5 Contenders: UNLV, Memphis, Army

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
Winner faces No. 4 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 3 SMU in the Peach Bowl