Projecting the first 2024 College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket

There’s a strong chance come Tuesday night we’ll still be waiting on some important results, but at least we know the College Football Playoff selection committee has to finally show its cards.

After 10 weeks of the 2024 season, we’ve reached the first of six rankings from the 13-member selection committee. Tonight they will reveal where they currently stand on the historic 12-team playoff. 

The past Saturday’s results took a snow globe to last week’s projections, offering up a tease of more chaos to come over the final month of the season. 

Oregon is the undisputed No. 1 team, but after that? 

Questions abound. 

Where to rank one-loss teams Ohio State and Georgia? How far should Penn State drop? How high might Indiana start in the initial rankings? And what about Boise State — the frontrunner to win the G5 spot?

We’ll find out at 7 p.m. on ESPN. 

For now, here’s my crack at what the first Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings will look like, plus the 12-team bracket.  

Remember: These are two very different things. Just because a team is ranked No. 3 does not mean it is guaranteed the No. 3-seed. As has been the case all season, I am projecting the rankings and bracket based on how I believe the committee will stack both accordingly Tuesday.

Seeding is important here, as are the specific details — which ESPN’s own commentators screwed up in Week 0 describing how the field would be set. The quickie cliff notes version is the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth. 

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how I project the first College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket:

The Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings 

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. BYU
7. Notre Dame
8. Indiana
9. Penn State
10. Tennessee
11. Boise State
12. Alabama
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Washington State
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. Vanderbilt 
23. Louisville
24. Pitt
25. Colorado

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): The primary concern for the Ducks right now is simply health. They’re undefeated, with one of the best resumes in the country, and a cake schedule down the stretch. But the Tez Johnson injury could be serious (collarbone), and will Oregon ever get top offensive lineman Matthew Bedford back by the time postseason play starts?

2. Georgia (SEC Champion): The Bulldogs remain the most Jekyll and Hyde team in playoff contention. They sleepwalked their way to another win, beating rival Florida 34-20, but it wasn’t pretty. Carson Beck continues to struggle with interceptions. Can the defense propel the ‘Dawgs to a road win at Ole Miss this weekend?

3. Miami (ACC Champion): The Cardiac Canes never make it easy, but they just keep winning — and Cam Ward just keeps making absurd plays. Miami allowed Duke to go on a 28-3 run, only to shrug off a two-score deficit with its own 36-3 blitz. No team in the country can scare or score faster than the ‘Canes.

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion): The Cougs got to stay at home and watch the rest of the top Big 12 contenders drown around them. In a pair of monsoons, Iowa State and Kansas State both lost, positioning BYU in the driver’s seat for a spot in Dallas and a chance to lockdown a playoff berth.

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: The Buckeyes answered the bell in the win at Penn State. They fell behind early, made plenty of mistakes, yet proved to be the tougher team (mentally and physically). Their goal-line stand and following 5-minute drive to bleed the clock was impressive. 

6. Texas: The Longhorns were idle this week, and now they get to host a battered Florida team. There’s a real possibility they may not face another team with a winning record until their showdown with Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. 

7. Notre Dame: The Irish’s schedule has lightened up considerably with Florida State and USC in free-falls, and Army quarterback Bryson Daily suddenly unavailable. Their path to the playoff was opened up with all the carnage from last weekend, too.

8. Indiana: Could the Hoosiers be ranked even higher as one of just four remaining undefeated Power Conference teams? Possibly. Curt Cignetti’s team erased its first deficit of the season by posting 47 straight points on the scoreboard against Michigan State to move to 9-0 for the first time in school history. The lone setback for Indiana: A schedule that ranks No. 104th nationally with zero wins over ranked teams. 

9. Penn State: Deja vu for the Nittany Lions over the weekend, where James Franklin’s team once again had a chance at a statement win against Ohio State and fell short. Their resume also took a hit with USC and Illinois both losing. An 11-1 Big Ten team probably won’t get left out, but Penn State does not have any quality wins to really hang its hat on.

10. Tennessee: The Vols have become accustom to slogging their way through first-halves, and then riding Dylan Sampson and a stingy defense to a close, gross win. It worked against Florida, Alabama and Kentucky. Will that formula be enough against Georgia in two weeks? Their SEC title hopes could depend on it. 

11. Boise State (Highest Group of 5 Champion): The Broncos continue to methodically climb up the rankings, and there’s a growing chance that if they run the table and beat UNLV for the Mountain West Championship, they could finish even higher in the final CFP Rankings. 

12. Alabama: The Tide are back in the mix after watching so much of the Top 25 burn around them. Their staying power will depend on what happens on Saturday night in Death Valley against LSU. In a playoff elimination game, a win could mean they’re in — and a loss would end all debate. 

First Four Out: SMU, LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, Washington State, Tulane

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Indiana
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Alabama at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Boise State at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl