Projecting the third College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team bracket

We’ve had two weeks of College Football Playoff rankings already, allowing the selection committee to start to form a baseline on most teams in the hunt. Week 12 caused some major shakeups.

On3 will attempt to project this week’s rankings and 12-team playoff bracket below.

There were some obvious matchups that caused movement, starting with Georgia‘s big win over Tennessee on Saturday night. That should put the Bulldogs firmly back into the playoff field, while it will likely drop the Volunteers close to the cut line.

Meanwhile, the Group of Five picture stayed mostly the same, with the top contenders — Boise State, Army and Tulane — all winning or off this week.

So what really changed this week?

Well, the bottom of the top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings are likely to see a significant shakeup with some new teams entering the mix after the likes of LSU, Louisville and Missouri all lost.

Here’s our crack at what the third Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings will look like, plus the 12-team bracket.

Remember: These are two very different things. Just because a team is ranked No. 3 does not mean it is guaranteed the No. 3 seed. We’re projecting the rankings and bracket based on how we believe the committee will arrange both on Tuesday.

Note that the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how we project the third College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket:

The Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. (11-0) Oregon Ducks
2. (9-1) Ohio State Buckeyes
3. (9-1) Texas Longhorns
4. (9-1) Penn State Nittany Lions
5. (10-0) Indiana Hoosiers +1
6. (9-1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2
7. (9-1) Miami Hurricanes +2
8. (8-2) Georgia Bulldogs +4
9. (8-2) Alabama Crimson Tide +1
10. (8-2) Ole Miss Rebels +1
11. (8-2) Tennessee Volunteers -6
12. (9-1) Boise State Broncos +1
13. (9-1) BYU Cougars -6
14. (9-1) SMU Mustangs
15. (8-2) Texas A&M Aggies
16. (8-2) Colorado Buffaloes +1
17. (8-2) Clemson Tigers +2
18. (9-0) Army Black Knights +2
19. (7-3) South Carolina Gamecocks +5
20. (8-2) Arizona State Sun Devils NR
21. (9-2) Tulane Green Wave +4
22. (8-2) Iowa State Cyclones NR
23. (8-2) UNLV Rebels NR
24. (7-3) Kansas State Wildcats -8
25. (8-2) Washington State Cougars -7

Note: Movement listed based on last week’s ranking.

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): It was a slow and sloppy start for the Ducks, who never did manage to kick things into full gear against Wisconsin. But traveling cross country has proven tricky for just about everyone this season, and Oregon did still manage to win the game. The Ducks remain on track to reach the Big Ten title game.

2. Texas (SEC Champion): Only two teams in the SEC have just one loss in conference play, and Texas is one of them, along with Texas A&M. That rivalry game at year’s end will be awesome to watch, because it will have significant implications for both teams. For now, though, Texas remains in control of its destiny when it comes to the SEC race and the College Football Playoff.

3. Miami (ACC Champion): Though SMU remains the only unbeaten team in ACC play, Miami is currently favored to win the league. That would put the Hurricanes in the automatic qualifying spot for the playoffs. The road to reach the ACC title game without another loss isn’t too, too bad: Wake Forest and then at Syracuse.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion): It hasn’t always been the most impressive, and Boise State spotted San Diego State 14 points to start Saturday’s game. Still, Ashton Jeanty and company got the job done yet again. We have Boise State moving past BYU in this week’s rankings, which would put the Broncos in position to potentially finish as one of the top four highest-ranked conference champions — earning a playoff bye. Keep an eye on whether Boise State ranks ahead of BYU and Colorado this week. That could be a hugely important distinction.

The At-Larges

5. Ohio State: It was a bit of a slow start for Ohio State at Northwestern, but quarterback Will Howard eventually settled in. He threw two touchdown passes and running back Quinshon Judkins rushed for two more. Now safely past Northwestern, Ohio State can focus on a much-ballyhooed matchup between AP Top 25 teams … a showdown with unbeaten Indiana.

6. Penn State: Penn State cruised on Saturday, never really breaking a sweat in a 49-10 romp over Purdue. Drew Allar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns, while tight end Tyler Warren had 63 yards rushing and a score, as well as 127 yards receiving and another score. The offense once again looked dangerous after a down performance a couple weeks ago against Ohio State, which leaves Penn State in a great spot.

7. Indiana: Following a scintillating 10-0 start to the season, Indiana got a bye week at the best possible time. The Hoosiers are set to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes on the other side of the bye in a matchup that will help shape both the Big Ten title race and the College Football Playoff picture. Indiana has a chance to shock the world. And it doesn’t have much longer to wait.

8. Notre Dame: Notre Dame opened up a 35-0 lead on Virginia, then hit the cruise control button a bit too early. Still, it was a dominant 35-14 win at the end of the day. Riley Leonard threw for three scores, while running back Jeremiyah Love ran for 137 yards and two scores. The result sets the Fighting Irish up for the big showdown with unbeaten Army, a contest that will carry surprising weight with where each team currently stands.

9. Georgia: There’s a logjam of 8-2 SEC teams likely to be right around the playoff cut line, and we think Georgia’s big win over Tennessee is enough to move the Bulldogs up toward the front of the pack. The committee will have to weigh overall body of work versus head to head results, which won’t be easy. If the committee favors the latter, Georgia likely ends up below either or both of Alabama and Ole Miss. If the committee more heavily weights the overall body of work, Georgia could come out on top. We’re projecting the latter, though with a relatively low degree of confidence.

10. Alabama: The Crimson Tide have some really nice wins, topping Georgia, LSU and Missouri. The latter two lost some luster after this weekend’s games, though. Still, Alabama has a pretty strong overall resume and both of its losses are to respectable teams. We’re betting the committee has the Tide in this week, but it could be close. There’s a definite logjam of two-loss SEC teams and at least one is likely to be left out.

11. Ole Miss: Following its huge win over Georgia last week, Ole Miss was on a bye this week and got to watch the chaos unfold. Unfortunately for the Rebels it’s entirely possible the Bulldogs they just beat slip back in front of them this week. One of the biggest problems for Ole Miss is that both losses (to Kentucky and LSU) continue to look worse as the season goes on. That could matter if all else is equal.

12. BYU (Big 12 Champion): We’ve got BYU projected to remain ahead of Colorado in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, but the gap isn’t all that large. And obviously Colorado will get its shot to win the conference. For now, though, BYU takes the projected Big 12 slot in the playoffs. Because BYU is ranked below Boise State in our projections this week, the Cougars actually become the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, thus slotting in as the final seed in the playoff bracket. Next week’s game at surging Arizona State could certainly change that.

First Four Out: Tennessee, SMU, Texas A&M, Colorado

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, Tulane, UNLV, Washington State

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 BYU at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl