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Purdue vs. Alabama odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Boilermakers, Crimson Tide

Matt Connollyby:Matt Connolly12/09/23

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Alabama guard Mark Sears
Mark Sears (Courtesy of Alabama Athletics)

Purdue and Alabama are meeting in a big-time nonconference game on Saturday in Toronto. The game provides an opportunity for reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey to have a homecoming as the Boilermakers star is a Toronto native.

Edey enters the game averaging 23.7 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. He is sure to be a handful for Alabama, but Nate Oats‘ squad has plenty of talent, too.

Alabama enters the game with a 6-2 record and is coming off of a 24-point win over Arkansas State. The Crimson Tide also have some star power, led by All-SEC performer Mark Sears, who is averaging 19.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. It should be an entertaining matchup on Saturday.

Odds for Purdue vs. Alabama

Purdue is listed as a 5.5-point favorite entering Saturday’s game against Alabama, according to FanDuel. Purdue is also a -235 favorite on the moneyline, compared to +190 for the Crimson Tide.

The over-under is set at 160.5 points. Purdue is ranked No. 4 nationally, while Alabama is unranked, but oddsmakers expect a close contest.

Final score predictions for Purdue vs. Alabama

BPI Predicted winner: Purdue
BPI Predicted point differential: 5.6
BPI Win probability (for Purdue): 69.2 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 88.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 5.6 points in Purdue’s favor. It also gives the Boilermakers a 69.2 percent chance to win the game over the Boilermakers.

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BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 88.7, which is the fifth-best quality score of the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Purdue 85, Alabama 80
KenPom Win probability (for Purdue): 68 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Purdue and Alabama, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Boilermakers to win by five points.

How to watch Purdue vs. Alabama

Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Toronto

Purdue and Alabama are set to tip off at 1:30 p.m. The game will be played at Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto. It is a part of the Hall of Fame series.

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For fans unable to attend the game, it can be watched on FOX. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which does have an option for a free trial.