Purdue vs. Marquette odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Boilermakers, Golden Eagles

Two of the top teams in the nation will square off in the Maui Invitational championship game on Wednesday as No. 2 Purdue and No. 4 Marquette tip off tonight in what should be an epic early-season showdown. One of the two undefeated teams will leave Honolulu with their first loss of the season, as both have impressed in the tournament and beyond to start the 2023-2024 season.

The Boilermakers have had an impressive run in the Maui Invitational defeating two ranked opponents on their way to the championship game, beating No. 11 Gonzaga in the quarterfinals followed by a gritty 71-67 win over No. 7 Tennessee on Tuesday night. Marquette on the other hand defeated UCLA in the quarterfinals followed by an impressive 14-point win over the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks, as they now have the opportunity to defeat the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams in the nation in a two-game stretch.

The stage is set for the major showdown between the two undefeateds, but before they tip off at the Stan Sheriff Center, let’s take a look at the betting odds, win probability, and more for Wednesday’s marquee matchup.

Odds for Purdue vs. Marquette

According to FanDuel, Purdue enters this matchup as 3.5-point favorites over Marquette, with the Boilermakers’ money line sitting at -166 odds compared to the plus money Golden Eagles who are sitting at +138.

The line for the point total in this game is 141.5, as both teams have scored over 70 points in each of their games in the Maui Invitational as well as a handful of 90-point performances this season between the two squads.

Final score predictions for Purdue vs. Marquette

BPI Predicted winner: Purdue
BPI Predicted point differential: 1.1
BPI Win probability (for Purdue): 53.8 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 97.8

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, and like Vegas, slightly favors Purdue in this matchup. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a slight point differential of 1.1 points in Purdue’s favor, also giving the Boilermakers a 53.8 percent chance to win the game over Marquette in a close contest.

BPI also gives this game a high matchup quality score of 97.8, which is the second-best quality score of the day only trailing Kansas and Tennessee’s game that will take place prior to the tournament championship.

KenPom Predicted final score: Purdue 75, Marquette 72
KenPom Win probability (for Purdue): 61 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Purdue and Marquette, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Golden Eagles to lose by just three points.

How to watch Purdue vs. Marquette

Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Honolulu (HI.)

It may still be early in the season, but the stakes seem extremely high in this year’s Maui Invitational final, with whoever wins on Wednesday having a strong case to be crowned as the top-ranked team in the nation.

Purdue and Marquette will square off in the Maui Invitational Championship on Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. ET in a game airing on ESPN and streaming on FuboTV.

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