Quarterback Dominoes: Contenders narrow for Arch Manning

It was one of the biggest questions hanging over the college recruiting world: Would Alabama wait for Arch Manning‘s decision or take four-star quarterback Eli Holstein?

On3 has been of the belief that the Crimson Tide would accept a commitment from Holstein. And on Tuesday, the Zachary (La.) High star announced he was heading to Alabama.

The move marks the first time that Manning has not been in complete control of his recruitment. Manning has been seen as the largest quarterback domino on the board with his moves dictating how others operate.

That is no longer the case.

“I think the obvious is it eliminates Alabama,” On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Chad Simmons said. “I don’t think it really changes a whole lot on my end for Arch. I’ve seen Georgia and Texas as the favorites for the last month and a half or so.”

The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine has been gradually giving longer odds to Alabama as the weather got warmer across the country as Texas and Georgia kept rising.

After Holstein’s commitment, the RPM gives Texas a 51.7% chance to land Manning, while Georgia sits at 45.3%.

Manning had recently set up three official visits for June to Georgia on June 3-5, Alabama on June 10-12 and Texas on June 17-19.

On3’s Sam Spiegelman reports that Manning will still take his official visit to Tuscaloosa, Ala., next month despite the Holstein commitment. Simmons said he could see Manning adding visits to Florida and LSU — two schools who have been trying to enter the Manning recruiting — following this news.

“It just really puts things a little bit more into focus where this thing’s really turning into a Georgia/Texas battle and LSU is working hard to kind of get back into it to make it a three-team race,” Simmons said.

5-star Dante Moore another key quarterback domino

In January, Dante Moore told On3’s Joseph Hastings that he planned on taking advantage of every thing his recruitment would have to offer. He appears to be doing that.

After appearing to be a heavy Notre Dame favorite in March, Moore’s recruitment has stabilized into a more even race.

Simmons never bought into the Fighting Irish hype and still thinks Moore’s recruitment is fairly open.

“I still continue to hear probably more about schools away from Notre Dame than I do about him going to Notre Dame,” Simmons said.

The main four schools battling it out for Moore are LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame and Texas A&M.

Moore’s school year goes into late into June, so he won’t be taking as many visits as some other players. But he does have one unofficial visit scheduled for the month.

It will be to College Station, Texas, on June 17-19. The Aggies have been pushing hard for Moore ever since Holstein decommitted from the program earlier this year.

Quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey is the lead recruiter for Moore, but Jimbo Fisher has also talked with Moore on the phone.

It is the first time Moore will be visiting the school, and be a huge weekend for both schools. The five-star quarterback is really interested to see what it is like in the Lone Star State.

“The first visit to A&M is critical for both sides,” Simmons said. “A&M needs a quarterback bad in this class. They lost Eli. They’re very much in there with Dante, trying to get in there with Jaden Rashada and other players.”

Michigan received an unofficial visit from Moore this past weekend, and it appeared to be a very casual visit. In addition to talking with co-offensive coordinator Matt Weiss, Moore also spent some time with running back Donovan Edwards.

The Wolverine’s EJ Holland asked Moore if he still planned to commit in August and the Michigan native was far from committal.

“Possibly,” he said. “It could be a little longer. I don’t know, man. It’s stressful.”

Jaden Rashada announces commitment date

Speaking of Jaden Rashada, the four-star quarterback announced his top seven schools last week: California, Florida, LSU, Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas A&M.

While he included the Rebels, Ole Miss already has a quarterback commitment from four-star signal-caller Marcel Reed. Although the coaching staff in Oxford, Miss., has been honest with the two players about wanting both of them in the program’s 2023 class.

He also said he would his commitment on June 18.

With about a month to go before the commitment, Rashada will likely take some final visits to his favorite schools. Simmons said Rashada will be in Gainesville, Fla., next Wednesday to see the Gators.

In addition to the Gators, Simmons says he hears most about are Oregon and Texas A&M. However, he emphasized this is a recruitment that seems to change as much as the tides off the California coast.

“You hear different things about Jaden and who he’s visiting to next and who he may be looking to take an official to in the summer,” Simmons said. “There’s a lot of schools attached to his name.”

Of all the quarterback dominoes, Rashada is clearly the biggest wild card on where he could eventually land.

Teams might try and snag Dylan Lonergan, Avery Johnson late in the process

There are only five four-star and above quarterbacks left uncommitted in the 2023 On3 Consensus: Manning, Moore, Rashada, Dylan Lonergan and Avery Johnson.

Both Lonergan and Johnson are similar situations. They each have a heavy favorite or two but could also see their recruitments open up as teams start missing out on their top quarterbacks.

For Lonergan, South Carolina and Stanford have been the presumed top two for months. Kansas State is the heavy favorite for Johnson, although he is taking an official visit to Oregon in June.

One of the difficulties in trying to enter Lonergan’s recruitment late is his passion for baseball. He wants to play at the next level. The Gamecocks and Cardinal are two historic programs in the sport and are all-in on having Lonergan join their teams as a pitcher.

That may make Johnson the easier quarterback to make a late run at in the 2023 cycle. It also helps that Johnson is coming off a terrific performance at the Elite 11 Regional and Nashville, earning an invite to Elite 11 Finals.

But he also said in Nashville he wants to have his recruitment wrapped up by the time he lands in Los Angeles.

“I definitely don’t want to run my commitment past June,” Johnson said.