Quarterback Dominoes: Shifting recruitments for top signal-callers

As On3 has chronicled throughout the spring, recruiting quarterbacks in the Class of 2023 is intertwined and impacts top programs in college football. Yes, we’ve seen a few highly coveted signal-callers, like Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee), JJ Kohl (Iowa State) and Marcel Reed (Ole Miss), come off the board in March and April. But the fact remains some of the biggest quarterback dominoes – including Five-Star Plus+ Arch Manning – have yet to tumble.

What happens with Manning, Dante Moore, Jaden Rashada, Eli Holstein and Dylan Lonergan’s recruitments over the next couple of months will have a lasting impact that stretches from coast-to-coast and could reshape the future of college football.

To help us better understand the quarterback dominoes, On3 turns to our national recruiting experts for their takes on what’s going on.

Would Alabama take a commitment from Eli Holstein?

Eli Holstein, the No. 8 quarterback in the country out of Zachary, La., appears to be trending toward Alabama after making his third visit to Tuscaloosa this spring. In fact, the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine lists Alabama with a 93% chance of landing his commitment.

But Alabama also wants Arch Manning – even though the Crimson Tide are battling Texas and Georgia in his recruitment.

That leads to the question of whether or not this is a first-come, first-serve basis between Holstein and Manning.

“I definitely get the sense that both have a spot at Alabama,” On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons said. “I think it comes down to who’s ready to make a decision first. Both are targets for Alabama. There’s been a question about whether Bama will wait for Arch to commit first. I’ve been told no. Eli has an opening to come in whenever he’s ready.”

On3 national recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman logged a 50% prediction for the Crimson Tide with Holstein last week. He said Alabama has opened the door to recruiting two Louisiana quarterbacks, and he expects them to land either Holstein or Manning.

“I expect them to sign someone from Louisiana,” he said. “I just don’t know what their last name is going to be. But I expect them to sign one of them.”

And the odds, at least at this point, look like the Crimson Tide will end up with Holstein.

“I think three visits in a six-week stretch, certainly puts Alabama in a good spot with Eli,” Spiegelman said. “They’ve been carefully recruiting him since he was committed to Texas A&M. And after leaving an encouraging visit to Alabama and after visiting Florida, it felt as if the Tide was the team to beat.

“However, Eli seemingly wants to go through the rest of his spring football, which includes the Elite 11 this weekend, and focus on helping Zachary repeat as state champions again this year. They’re going to kick off spring football right after the Elite 11 event. So, it seems like he’d rather kind of focus on football for a little bit possibly after that.”

But after spring ball is over, all bets are off, and Holstein could quickly come off the board.

Arch Manning still torn between Texas, UGA, Bama?

On3 analysts say it’s become clear over the past few weeks Arch Manning, the No. 1 player in the country out of New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman, is torn between Texas, Georgia and Alabama.

While there’s intel that Texas and Georgia have moved ahead on Manning’s list, both Spiegelman and Simmons insist the Crimson Tide are very much still in it for Manning. LSU and Florida could also get visits in the near future, but both definitely have a lot of ground to make up.

“There is certainly growing optimism for both Georgia and Texas the more you dig in,” Spiegelman said. “I think Georgia has a very close eye on the situation. I think the same with Texas. With the Eli factor, both schools are going to try and dig in and see what happens with Alabama. But it doesn’t seem like anyone has been eliminated. There’s certainly confidence on those two schools’ sides. But there’s still confidence in all three overall.”

Yet there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of movement toward a final decision from Manning at this point.

“There are so many different arrows pointing in so many different ways,” Spiegelman said. “It’s kind of put it in a unique standstill.”

Dante Moore not a Notre Dame lock

While it’s clear what teams are battling for Manning and Holstein, things look to be more up in the air with five-star Dante Moore out of Detroit Martin Luther King. The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine has listed Notre Dame as the frontrunner for Moore for months now. But the Irish’s lead has slipped and now stands at 63.5% as LSU, Oregon, Miami and others have made a big push.

“I never felt he was a Notre Dame lock, personally,” Simmons said. “There’s been a lot of buzz around Notre Dame. Yes, he’s very connected to that staff. He has great relationships with Tommy Rees, Marcus Freeman and multiple coaches in South Bend.

“But I’ve been told by more than one source that he’s definitely looking around more than people think. LSU is very much in the picture. Obviously, he’s taking an official to Oregon. I think Miami is very much involved. I’ve been told Florida and Auburn are still in communication.”

And the indecision could lead Moore, much like Holstein and Manning, to slow down his decision-making process.

“I don’t think he’s as close to a decision as people thought he was a month or so ago,” Simmons said. “Notre Dame, obviously, is still a true contender. But I do not think he’s a lock to Notre Dame, and I do think LSU is a very real player in this.”

Jaden Rashada exploring all options

Simmons said no quarterback has seen more twists and turns in his recruitment over the past few weeks than four-star Jaden Rashada out of Pittsburgh, Calif.

An example of the wild shifts in Rashada’s recruitment can be seen in the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine. For example, three weeks ago Ole Miss was considered the team to beat. Then Oregon took over 10 days ago as the leader with a 53.3% chance to land the No. 7 quarterback in the On3 Consensus. Now, the On3 RPM says Oregon has a 44.7% chance of landing Rashada and Miami is at 31.8%

“I do think this one can go in multiple directions at this point,” Simmons said. “Ole Miss getting a commit this week from Marcel Reed obviously seems to take them out of play. Oregon is definitely in this. He’s been linked to Miami with Mario Cristobal having a relationship with him going back to his time at Oregon. Now, LSU is also in this after a visit on Monday. Texas A&M recently offered him.

“He had a goal to commit in the spring early on. That was really his mindset. With all these visits and the quarterback domino effect, I think he’s going to go a lot longer and deeper than even he thought was possible just a couple of months ago.”

Simmons said he fully now expects Rashada to take some official visits. Also, don’t be surprised if NIL plays a factor. Don’t forget, Rashada was one of the first-ever high school athletes to make money off his NIL when he inked a four-figure endorsement deal with recruiting app Athletes in Recruitment.

There’s separation in Dylan Lonergan’s top 5

While there appears to be a ways to go with other quarterback dominoes, the end is in sight for Dylan Lonergan, a two-sport star out of Snellville (Ga.) Brookwood.

Lonergan is the No. 9 quarterback prospect in the On3 Consensus. He’s focused on Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, South Carolina and Stanford. Not only is the four-star quarterback evaluating schools for football, but baseball is a big part of the decision, too.

“Although Lonergan is down to a handful of schools, there is some separation according to a source close to Lonergan,” Simmons said. “The two schools leading the way are South Carolina and Stanford. He has visited Columbia five times and Palo Alto twice. He has connected with Shane Beamer and Marcus Satterfield in Columbia. At Stanford, Tavita Pritchard, and his development of Davis Mills grabbed Lonergan’s attention. ”

Beamer’s success in year one has helped the Gamecocks and the detail Stanford is about on and off the field stands out when talking about the Cardinal. Both schools have strong baseball programs, as well.

“If one school has the edge today, it looks to be the Gamecocks, but this one is ‘very close,’” Simmons said.

Other quarterback dominoes

• Texas A&M continues to hunt for a replacement for Holstein in its class. The Aggies offered both Rashada and four-star Louisville commitment, Pierce Clarkson, last week. Clarkson out of Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco says he’s sticking with the Cardinals unless there happens to be a coaching change. A&M might have to wait for other quarterback dominoes to fall to figure out where it goes at the quarterback spot.
  
• Florida is struggling to find traction with many of its top quarterback targets. The Gators have an uphill struggle to land Moore, Holstein and even Manning. That’s why insiders say the Gators have been linked with more 2024 targets like Julian Sayin. The four-star quarterback from Carlsbad, Calif., was recently on campus in Gainesville, and he gave the unofficial visit high marks.
  
• Arkansas landed three-star quarterback Malachi Singleton of Kennesaw (Ga.) North Cobb on Tuesday. After visiting Fayetteville three times, the three-star feels at home, and Sam Pittman, Kendal Briles and staff have to be excited about what they are getting. As a junior, Singleton passed for 2,348 yards with 24 touchdowns. He also rushed for 1,037 yards and 25 more scores.
  
• With Arkansas landing Singleton and Oregon focused on Moore and Rashada, it further strengthens Kansas State’s pursuit of in-state four-star quarterback Avery Johnson. The Wildcats are now the overwhelming favorites to land Johnson. The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine lists K-State with an 86% chance of landing the star from Maize (Kan.) High. The quarterback dominoes are certainly falling the right way for EMAW.
  
• Three-star quarterback Israel Carter of Corona (Calif.) Centennial committed to Arizona State this past Saturday. He picked the Sun Devils over BYU, Colorado and Washington State.