The reasonable expectations for Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers in Year 1

The LSU Tigers enter the 2022 season as perhaps the most difficult team in the SEC to handicap. 

Out is Ed Orgeron and a slew of former blue chip recruits. In steps former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly and a legion of transfers. With more than 30 newcomers on the roster, LSU’s team looks completely different than the ones that went a combined 11-12 the past two seasons. 

With Kelly now in charge, the entire program — from its culture to its roster to its identity — is in transition. He stunned college football bolting South Bend for Baton Rouge, but Kelly has openly pinned that he made the jump to the SEC because he believes LSU has “a better path” to win a national title. 

Recent history says, “Duh.” (This is where we note the Tigers’ last three coaches all won championships).

But LSU isn’t winning a national title in 2022. Those are the broader expectations that will ultimately define Kelly’s midnight divorce from the Irish, but what does a reasonable Year 1 look like for a program that’s somewhere between a rebuild and restart?

The 2022 LSU Tigers: A roster that exists in extremes

Entering the fall, LSU has talent but little depth. The Tigers aren’t quite at 85 scholarship players but they have multiple future 1st Rounders at as many as four or five positions. It’s a roster that exists in extremes. 

The LSU Tigers should feature one of the best defensive lines in the nation, yet one of the SEC’s worst OLs (38 sacks allowed last season, SEC-worst 3.2 yards per carry). They have no tight ends but are otherwise stacked with playmakers (see: potential top SEC wideout Kayshon Boutte). DBU could be TPU — with as many as five additions from the transfer portal slated to start in the secondary. 

The options at quarterback include a sixth-year senior who’s battled a litany of injuries (Myles Brennan), a former dual-threat blue-chipper who has regressed the last two years (Jayden Daniels) and a pair of promising but green underclassmen (Garrett Nussmeier and 5-star freshman Walker Howard). 

They’re also completely changing schemes under new coordinators Mike Denbrock and Matt House. 

So yea. It’s a lot of newness. A lot of change.

That’s why it’s anyone’s guess what it all means in terms of wins and losses this fall.

The sheer number of transfers (15 in total) has some believing Kelly patched a roster full of holes with enough band-aids to compete immediately. Think Michigan State of the South — ala 2021. But many seem to forget that Mel Tucker was in East Lancing for a season before he loaded up on transfers. He had an idea of exactly what he needed, and how the pieces would fit.

For Kelly and LSU, a hazmat suit is needed to cover all the holes left by Orgeron & Co.

ESPN’s FPI currently lists LSU’s preseason win total at 7.7. Vegas is slightly lower at 7 flat.

That’s a slight improvement over the last two seasons, but likely won’t excite too many purple and gold faithful who have heard Kelly talk titles all offseason. 

Notably, Brian Kelly has won at least eight games in Year 1 at every stop (Grand Valley State, Cincy and Notre Dame) sans Central Michigan. But to get to eight victories in Year 1 in Baton Rouge will require LSU to win multiple coin-flip games plus spring an upset or two. 

It’s certainly possible.

It’s why I’ve dubbed them the league’s sleeper team this fall. Even a dysfunctional LSU squad managed to stun Florida the last two seasons and beat Texas A&M in 2021. But what happens if a thin roster is crippled by injuries? What happens if the offensive line remains a turnstile?

As is the case every season, LSU has a gnarly schedule, opening the season in New Orleans against Florida State, coupled with a conference schedule that includes preseason Top 25 teams Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Tigers also play at Auburn and Florida, and host a veteran Mississippi State squad many are high on entering 2022. 

Add it all up and LSU could be in a for a fun 10-win, New Year’s Day bowl, upset-city season. The type of year that would get the fan base immediately behind Kelly and thinking big for 2023. It could also win five or six games for the third year in a row. 

Once again, it’s high ceiling, low floor season on the bayou.