Rece Davis examines if Notre Dame's chances at the College Football Playoff are dead in the water

Notre Dame took a massive blow to their season on Saturday with their 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois. Even so, Rece Davis doesn’t think that it fully removes them from the running for the College Football Playoff.

Davis explained the case for the Fighting Irish during the ‘College GameDay Podcast’ on Monday. It starts with obviously winning out or suffering only the one other loss. That also would require their top two remaining opponents, Florida State and USC, to be as highly regarded as they can be by the time that they play later this fall. They’d also need separate contenders to help them with defeats of their own.

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“What if, for instance – what if Florida State rights the ship? What if Notre Dame wins, you know, the rest of their games or only loses one more, something? Maybe everybody has got, outside of the ultra-elite, two or three losses?” Davis thought. “What if Notre Dame, you know, only loses one more, doesn’t lose again? Florida State gets things fixed. USC is in the mix in the Big Ten, maybe even makes the Big Ten Championship or they are a playoff contender themselves – Notre Dame beats them.”

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However, the key factor for Davis is how Northern Illinois finishes their season in their conference and nationally. It becomes a matter where Notre Dame should actually now be rooting for them to be as successful as possible so the two-point defeat to the Huskies in South Bend doesn’t look then as bad as it initially was.

“Then the most important factor of it – what if Northern Illinois winds up being the MAC Champion and they are in the mix for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion? Whether they get it is sort of immaterial. Not to them but at least in terms of Notre Dame’s case,” said Davis. “Maybe they’ll turn out to be pretty good, you know. If they are, then, all of a sudden – it’s still an upset, still a bad loss at home after you win the big road game but it’s not an inexplicable one.

“On the flip side, if Northern Illinois winds up being 5-7? Then, you know, that’ll be a detrimental case because, you know, it’s just one game, you can’t put too much emphasis on it but I think that one of the things that the committee does and should evaluate is not just what you’re capable of when you’re at your best but what you’re capable of when you are at your worst,” Davis continued. “You know, if Notre Dame had played poorly, if Notre Dame had sort of slopped around like Penn State did in not putting Bowling Green away and won the game? You kind of excuse that. But might you lose those games? If so, that has to be – it doesn’t have to be disqualifying but it has to be a mark against you.”

The Fighting Irish are in a bad spot after just two games this season, especially with their schedule which has become a potential con after being a pro just a week ago. Still, while maybe being out of it for the time being, Davis thinks they can ultimately find their way back in depending on how the next three months go for them and their opponents.

“I don’t think they’re done but it certainly hurts their overall case,” said Davis.

“It might ultimately cost them a home playoff game, you know, as you start, you know, doing the comparative things at the end but we are so far away from the end that you don’t know exactly how it’s going to play out.”