Rece Davis picks Texas to win, Iowa State cover

Rece Davis is rolling the dice in the Texas–Iowa State matchup this weekend, predicting a Longhorns victory but keeping his spread expectations in check. On Thursday, the ESPN analyst detailed his forecast for the Big 12 meeting. According to Fan Duel, Texas is a 7.5-point favorite over the Cyclones.

“Texas will win the game because I think they’ve dodged enough of these [trap games],” Davis said. “They’re certainly due for one of those complete performances where they not only get the lead, which they’ve done in all of these games by the way — they’ve established themselves with big leads, and then they let their foot off the gas — They’re due for one where they continue to accelerate and plow through a team.

“But, I’ve seen enough recently to say, ‘You know what, they’ll probably mess around and let them stay close.’ I think Texas wins but I’ll take the touchdown,” Davis said. “I’ll say the Cyclones stay close enough but Texas escapes again and continues the theme of the season.”

Texas has won the past two games by a combined six points. As Davis mentioned, the Longhorns surrendered massive leads in both narrow victories. In Week 10 against Kansas State, Texas allowed the Wildcats to outscore it 16-6 in the second half.

UT didn’t learn its lesson. In Week 11, the Longhorns were outscored 20-3 in the second half of their win against TCU. After the win, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian weighed in on his team’s tendency toward nail-biting finishes.

“That builds a lot of confidence in them, to get that done,” Sarkisian said. “But, believe me, I’m the first one to think, ‘Man, I sure would like to not have a game come down to one last possession at the end of the game.’ You know we had plenty of chances tonight for that not to happen. But, we put ourselves in that position and we had to find a way to dig deep and go finish it.”

Iowa State excited for the opportunity

While Iowa State has not found as many wins as Texas, it hasn’t had trouble sealing victories, either. Last weekend, the Cyclones stormed away with a 45-13 win against BYU. Iowa State averaged a 15-point margin of victory in its three wins before that, as well.

Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is excited to host the Longhorns.

“Playing them here, you know what you’re playing against, you’re playing against some of the absolute best players in college football,” Campbell said. “I’ve got the utmost respect for coach Sark, how he’s gone about it, what he’s done for that program, and just the elevation he’s had in a couple of short years. It’s been really special to watch.”

The two teams will go head-to-head at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on FOX.