Rece Davis predicts Duke to cover spread against Louisville

Oddsmakers have Duke going down. However, Rece Davis isn’t so sure. On Thursday, the ESPN analyst revealed his pick in the highly-anticipated ACC matchup. Louisville is currently a 6.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel.

“If not for Louisville’s face plant against Pittsburgh, I think it’s highly likely that College GameDay would have been in Louisville because they would’ve been undefeated,” Davis said. “I do not mean that Louisville is not good.”

Face plant is an accurate description. After stunning Notre Dame in Week 6, Louisville fell to an unassuming Pittsburgh squad 38-21 in Week 7. The Cardinals were unimpressive in the bout, committing three turnovers, two of which were interceptions.

Doubt in Duke’s defense

Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer’s careless throws in the game were uncharacteristic. Davis doesn’t expect Duke to replicate Pitt’s defensive success.

“The one thing about this is Duke and that exceptional, excellent, fast pass defense. They don’t have a ton of interceptions,” Davis said. “Louisville has been benevolent throwing interceptions. Plummer has thrown eight of them on the season.”

Duke has more interceptions than Davis remembers. The Blue Devils boast 10 picks this season, tied for the eighth-most in the country. Despite the team’s stellar secondary, they suffered a painful 38-20 blowout loss to Florida State in their most recent outing.

In fairness, Duke quarterback Riley Leonard wasn’t at full-strength. The standout QB attempted to make a triumphant return from an ankle injury, which he suffered against Notre Dame. While Leonard was on the field, he looked like a shell of himself.

How is Riley Leonard?

Davis expects Leonard to play again, but isn’t confident he will look any better.

“They’re against a Duke team coming off a really tough loss at Florida State, in which they fought their guts out,” Davis said. “Riley Leonard, again, fought his tail off. That ankle obviously is is still an issue there for him.

“I assume if he gave it a go against Florida State, he’s going to give it a go here,” Davis said. “With that defense and maybe with him, I’m going to take Duke in the points.”

History isn’t on Davis’ side. Louisville has a 3-0 all-time record against Duke, most recently downing the Blue Devils 62-22 in 2021. To Davis’ credit, Duke head coach Mike Elko knows how much is at stake for his team.

“We have to regroup,” Elko said earlier this week. “We have to refocus and certainly no one’s going to feel sorry for us. We have to get ourselves ready to go out to Louisville and play a really good Louisville team this week, in a game again that means an awful lot.”

Louisville and Duke will square off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.