Report: Four Big 12 expansion candidates emerge

The eight remaining member schools of the Big 12 have met multiple times with commissioner Bob Bowlsby in the past week to discuss how the conference should proceed following the departure of Texas and Oklahoma. According to reports from Max Olson and Chuck Carlton, expansion is being weighed heavily — four schools, specifically, are in consideration: BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston.

Olson’s report, last updated on Thursday, says that BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston are the schools “most seriously discussed and are considered the leading contenders.”

“Following two days of consultation with the athletics directors of the continuing members of the Big 12 Conference, the eight ADs remain committed to furthering the Big 12 as one of the nation’s premiere athletic conferences, and look forward to working with our presidents and chancellors to strengthen the league,” Bowlsby said in a statement Wednesday. “Future exploration by the group will continue to center on options that best position the long-term strength of the conference.”

Texas and Oklahoma, two of the conference’s big-market schools, accepted invitations to join the SEC on July 30. The conference has been weighing options on how to proceed since the news became public, and it appears they may extend invitations to four schools hoping to fill the void created by the departure of two moneymakers in Texas and Oklahoma.

How have other Power Five conferences proceeded?

After the SEC extended invitations to both Texas and Oklahoma, the other Power Five conferences were forced to explore how they can adapt to the change. The SEC, already college athletics’ richest conference, had just gained two massive markets, forcing the Big 12, Pac-12, Big 10 and ACC to reconsider their futures.

First, three of the conferences — the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC — created an alliance on Aug. 24. The Big 12 was not included in the alliance. The goal of the alliance was creating a multi-faceted approach to combat the SEC’s power, as the three conferences said they’d work together on future issues of governance, perhaps helping shape future NCAA legislation; College Football Playoff expansion and exclusive inter-conference scheduling in football, men’s basketball and women’s basketball.

Shortly thereafter, the Pac-12 considered its own form of expansion, though reports mentioning specific schools of consideration never surfaced. First-year Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff said on Aug. 26 that the conference would no longer consider expansion, as the commissioners had agreed it should not be in the conference’s immediate future. The Big 12, by comparison, has now been linked to specific schools in BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston, with the conversations being confirmed by multiple reporters.

How long would it take?

There is no certain answer as to how long it might take for BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston to join the Big 12, if they join at all. In the case of the SEC, Texas and Oklahoma have agreed to join in the summer of 2025 when their contractual commitment to the Big 12 concludes. However, the schools could potentially leave earlier if they are willing to face financial repercussions.

The Big 12 bylaws state member institutions must give 18 months notice of its departure, while also paying a fee of two years of revenue distribution. Should the schools choose to join the SEC in the summer of 2023, they must inform the Big 12 by the end of December, while also forfeiting roughly $80 million each.

As for UCF, Cincinnati and Houston — should they choose to join the Big 12 — the penalties inscribed in the American Athletic Conference’s bylaws are far less harsh. Although the schools have to give 27 months’ notice of their departure, the $10 million flat-fee penalty per school may provide more wiggle room.

BYU, on the other hand, is currently operating as an independent FBS school. Its other varsity athletic sports compete in the West Coast Conference. Should it choose to join the Big 12, it can be brought in as a football-only member as soon as the 2022 season.