Rivalry week college football betting picks: Who wins Texas-Texas A&M? Does Notre Dame survive USC?

Rivalry week comes just as college football starts turning 2007-level weird. What does that mean? Nothing is going to make any sense.

And that’s the fun part. Let’s pick some games…

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-19.5) Total: 54.5

Andy: The Yellow Jackets handed Miami its only loss, and now they’ll try to force Georgia into a very uncomfortable position relative to the College Football Playoff. The Aaron Philo–Haynes King two-quarterback system didn’t work as well against N.C. State as it did against Miami, but it sounds as if that will continue. Meanwhile, Georgia just needs to bring the offense it brought to the Tennessee game and not the one it brought to the Ole Miss game. Georgia should win this one, but that is a LOT of points.
The pick: GEORGIA TECH TO COVER

Ari: Georgia Tech is a functional football team and Georgia has looked iffy at times. Though it’s hard to imagine a world where the Bulldogs don’t win this game comfortably, 19.5 points seems like quite a bit. I think Georgia will win the SEC but won’t cover this spread.
The pick: GEORGIA TECH TO COVER

Nebraska at Iowa (-5.5) Total: 39.5

Andy: Did Nebraska unlock something Saturday, or was that more about Wisconsin? The bowl-eligibility monkey is off the Cornhuskers’ backs, so will they play loose and free against an Iowa defense that is not as dominant as it has been in past years? On the other side, can an Iowa offense led by freshman walk-on QB Jackson Stratton score on Nebraska’s defense. This looks like an old Iowa total, but it feels like more of a compliment to the Huskers’ D than the Hawkeyes’ D.
The pick: NEBRASKA MONEY LINE, UNDER 39.5

Ari: Nebraska just got bowl eligible after beating Wisconsin pretty handily. Now it is going on the road in a rivalry game to Iowa. The weather is going to be cold and defenses are going to be active. I have a hard time envisioning Iowa scoring a lot of points in this one.
The pick: NEBRASKA TO COVER, UNDER 39.5

South Carolina at Clemson (-2.5) Total 49.5

Andy: South Carolina has been a cause celebre for three-loss teams, but the Gamecocks find themselves blocked by fellow three-loss teams Alabama and Ole Miss, which both beat South Carolina. Clemson is the team with the actual chance to sneak into the CFP, but it has little to do with this game. If Syracuse beats Miami, Clemson would play in the ACC title game with a win-and-in opportunity. As for this game, South Carolina is a very good team that won’t make the CFP. This is the Gamecocks’ chance to make a cherished memory.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Ari: South Carolina could probably beat anyone in the SEC with the way its playing right now. Though it’s going on the road, it just seems like the Gamecocks are the better team in this matchup.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA MONEY LINE

Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+11.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: Time to fire off all your “Champions of Life” jokes, because the Commodores have a prime opportunity to hand the Volunteers a life championship. As for the game itself, Vandy’s only losing margin this season greater than seven points was against South Carolina on Nov. 9. The Commodores keep games close, and that should scare the Vols.
The pick: VANDERBILT TO COVER

Ari: I’m not picking teams in this game. I’m picking spots. This seems like a tricky spot for Tennessee. The Volunteers just got firmly back into the CFP picture and now has to go on the road to a pesky Vanderbilt team that has competed in games with the conference’s best? Tennessee wins, but it won’t be easy.
The pick: VANDERBILT TO COVER

Michigan at Ohio State (-20.5) Total: 43.5

Andy: If you’re expecting some “throw out the record books” or “anything can happen in a rivalry” takes here, forget it. Ohio State’s defense is going to take out three years of frustration on a vulnerable Michigan offense. 
The pick: OHIO STATE TO COVER

Ari: Ohio State is so much better than Michigan in every single way. But what about the mental element? Will Ohio State be tight? Will Michigan hang in the game long enough for doubt to creep in? I could see a world where Ryan Day runs up the score and covers easily. That could happen. But I also see a world where this game is closer than the rosters indicate it should be. This is just so many points.
The pick: MICHIGAN TO COVER

Notre Dame at USC (+6.5) Total: 51.5

Andy: This is a tight spread considering how these two teams have played all season. Can Jayden Maiava and the Trojans shock the Fighting Irish? Or will this look like Notre Dame against Georgia Tech — a game against a decent team that starts competitive but then stretches into a ho-hum win for the Irish?
The pick: NOTRE DAME TO COVER

Ari: USC is a pretty good football team, it just does a lot of maddening things. Notre Dame has rolled since losing to NIU, so conventional wisdom says the Irish may be due for a sweater before heading into the College Football Playoff. The game may be close, but the Irish win by a touchdown.
The pick: NOTRE DAME TO COVER

Washington at Oregon (-19.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: This feels a lot like the Michigan-Ohio State pick. The better-in-2024 team has lost three in a row in the rivalry and wants to pound on a hated opponent before heading to the conference championship game. 
The pick: OREGON TO COVER

Ari: This is just like the Ohio State-Michigan game. Rivalry. Three-touchdown spread. The juggernaut has struggled in the rivalry. Washington, though, has been a completely different team away from home. Dan Lanning takes out his frustration, wins by more than three touchdowns.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER

Kansas State at Iowa State (-2.5) Total: 52.5

Andy: Farmageddon was a shootout in the snow last year, and this year it will help determine who plays in the Big 12 title game. It felt for a few weeks as if Kansas State had fallen off, but the Wildcats’ demolition of Cincinnati on Saturday suggests they’re quite dangerous in this game. Iowa State spent much of the year as the Big 12 frontrunner, but consecutive losses to Texas Tech and Kansas dramatically changed the tone. But Iowa State is now back in the same place it was before those losses: Keep winning and make the College Football Playoff. That said, there is a reason Brent Musberger would say “YOU ARE LOOKING LIVE” at each stadium during the NFL Today. He was signaling to bettors to check the weather. The high in Ames on Saturday is 25 degrees. The low is eight degrees. This is a night game. The ball is going to feel like a frozen turkey. That could favor the team that runs the ball better.
The pick: KANSAS STATE TO COVER

Ari: Iowa State spent the majority of this year being in this position. Now that it (almost) controls its own destiny to make the College Football Playoff, I just don’t see the Cyclones letting it slip through their fingers. They have done a great job closing games this year. They do it again in Farmaggeddon.
The pick: IOWA STATE TO COVER

Louisville at Kentucky (+3.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: This is a weird rivalry. Kentucky has won five in a row, including several occasions where the Cardinals probably had the better team. If you’re going to give me points, I’m taking Kentucky until Louisville proves it can win one of these.
The pick: KENTUCKY TO COVER

Ari: Kentucky just wins this game. The Wildcats have had a rough go of it this year, but they did just play Texas relatively tough. Louisville has also had its ups and downs, but it has yet to prove it can win this rivalry.
The pick: KENTUCKY TO COVER

Arizona State at Arizona (+8.5) Total: 53.5

Andy: I expected this spread to be bigger because unlike the rest of the Big 12, Arizona has not been playing particularly close games. The Wildcats’ past four losses have been by an average of 24.3 points. Their lone win in that stretch — against Houston — was by 24. When the momentum gets moving in an Arizona game, it leans hard in one direction. And Arizona State is the hottest team in the league.
The pick: ARIZONA STATE TO COVER

Ari: Arizona State is the hottest team in college football and Arizona is, frankly, just bad this year. Yes, the game is in Tucson, but it’s hard to imagine the Sun Devils taking their foot off the gas this close to the Big 12 Championship Game.
The pick: ARIZONA STATE TO COVER

Auburn at Alabama (-11.5) Total: 52.5

Andy: Alabama just lost by three touchdowns at Oklahoma. Auburn just beat Texas A&M in four overtimes. So naturally Auburn is a double-digit underdog. Make it make sense. Here’s how. The last time Auburn came within 10 points or less of Alabama in Tuscaloosa was the Camback — when Cam Newton led the Tigers back from a huge deficit to win during Auburn’s national title run in 2010. Vegas is leaning on history. But does history matter in what is clearly a new era of college football that doesn’t include Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa? This is so confusing, because Alabama under Kalen DeBoer has looked unbeatable at times and horrible at others. Do the Tide swing back this week?
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER

Ari: Auburn is an 11.5-point underdog in a game I think the Tigers could actually win. After Alabama’s putrid performance against Oklahoma, why are we laying two scores here? Yes, Alabama has taken care of Auburn at home and this game is in Tuscaloosa. But taking this many points is just something I can’t refuse.
The pick: AUBURN TO COVER 

Miami at Syracuse (+10.5) Total: 67.5

Andy: Look at that total! It seems completely reasonable, though. Miami’s offense is spectacular, but its defense has been suspect. Syracuse can get hot and light up the scoreboard or melt down completely (the Pittsburgh game). There is one path where the last team with the ball wins. There is another where Miami rolls. Here’s guessing this is the one that gets really weird this week.
The pick: SYRACUSE TO COVER

Ari: This is a tough spot for Miami, but it has the offensive firepower to score with the best of them. The total tells the story of this game. It’s going to be a shootout. I can see Miami and Syracuse both being in the 30s in the second half, but I trust the Hurricanes to be able to keep the scoring pace for the entire four quarters.
The pick: MIAMI TO COVER 

Texas at Texas A&M (+5.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: This is the first meeting between these teams since 2011. The winner makes the SEC title game. These fanbases hate one another as much or more as any groups of rivals can hate one another. This is going to be absolutely awesome. To add to the intrigue, Texas QB Quinn Ewers has an injured ankle. He plans to play according to Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian. But the idea of Arch Manning getting thrown into this stew has now entered the universe. This game has everything, and there is no telling what is going to happen.
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Ari: I think Texas is a touchdown better than Texas A&M, but I’m also anticipating one of the best environments in college football history. There is just too much at stake here for Texas A&M to lay down and let the Longhorns roll at Kyle Field. I think Texas will end up winning, but it’s not going to be an easy victory.
The pick: TEXAS A&M TO COVER