Roster recycling is new normal with college basketball transfer portal

In the transfer portal era, upheaval is the new normal – even for blueblood programs.

Just three weeks ago, Duke’s hallowed men’s basketball team looked much different than it does today. The Blue Devils had weathered an uneven season to reach the Elite Eight and stood poised to welcome in the nation’s best recruiting class.

What came next? A mass exodus.

Potential lottery picks Kyle Filipowski and Jared McCain declared for the NBA Draft. And seven players – yes, seven – jumped into the transfer portal, including starters Jeremy Roach (Baylor) and Mark Mitchell (Missouri).

This is Duke, long a beacon of program stability, now confronting roster management issues just like the rest of the industry’s rank and file. Bluebloods are no longer immune from a rash of defections – departing players in search of more playing time and/or NIL compensation. 

While the sheer number of Duke transfers attracts bold headlines, sources say to be mindful that many divorces are mutual decisions. 

With the exception of Roach, who is viewed as a “major loss,” the majority of those transfers simply may not be good enough to garner significant minutes next season. And because they play the same position, Mitchell may have seen the writing on the wall with the arrival of Cooper Flagg, the next superstar/villain in college basketball (more on him later).

College basketball portal goes both ways

The revolving door swings both ways, of course, and in recent days Duke has landed Purdue’s Mason Gillis and Syracuse’s Maliq Brown. Plus, the celebrated recruiting class is still on its way to Durham.

For fans and basketball coaches alike, dramatic off-season momentum swings equate to emotional whiplash. Talk with sources neck deep in portal madness and you’ll hear sentiments like “drained,” “exhausted” and “exasperated.”

The basketball portal is churning so fast, they say, it’s hard to manage who is coming and going. To put a finer point on it, when recruiting the high school ranks it’s easier – though not always easy – for college coaches to pinpoint the person calling the shots for an athlete: a high school or summer league coach, a family member, a handler, etc.

To quickly find the correct point person while navigating the portal, good luck. New individuals emerge in athletes’ circles – emerging from the woodwork amid dollar signs – to assist with business decisions. And sometimes the person telling the college coaches that they are representing the athlete is really a fringe individual.

Another issue, sources said: Some players are entering the portal without even telling the coaching staff. On other occasions, family members ask coaches for NIL packages two or three times what a pedestrian player is worth. 

“The most hectic offseason I’ve ever seen,” one source told On3.

Midmajors face major hurdles with transfer portal

Yet for players, upward mobility is all the rage – and will only become more pronounced.

During the NCAA Tournament, an On3 analysis of Sweet 16 rosters revealed that 37 of the 80 starters were transfers. Looking forward, it would be an Oakland over Kentucky-quality upset if similar numbers don’t become the norm.

The only Sweet 16 team with no transfers in their starting lineup? Duke, which just weeks later is now conducting a portal deep-dive.

On another level of college basketball’s food chain, mid-major success now portends an unavoidable and potentially formidable rebuilding job.

After Indiana State coach Josh Schertz left for Saint Louis, the Sycamores, a refreshing success story this past season, saw eight players, including all five starters, enter the portal. 

Elsewhere, Dayton transfer Koby Brea is reportedly considering a who’s who list of basketball royalty: Kentucky, Kansas, UConn, Duke and North Carolina. Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney is one of the most coveted players for marquee programs eyeing a deep run next March. 

For mid-majors, sustaining success has become a monumental challenge.

“It’s hard to get better competitively when the players you recruit prove they can play D-I and transfer for NIL money and what are considered better programs,” one mid-major source bluntly told On3.

Is blueblood era over?

Because the competitive playing field has flattened – with talent more widely dispersed than ever – ESPN’s Jay Williams told USA Today that the blueblood era is “close” to being over.

“Talent is way much more dispersed than it’s ever really been,” Williams said. “You have players that are mid-level guys that just maybe didn’t get the right timing recruiting-wise, didn’t get the right looks, maybe didn’t hit the right AAU program, maybe didn’t get the right marketing around them.

“Now with these NIL bags, schools are always in the free agency market – we ain’t calling it the transfer portal – it’s the free agency market every single year. And the hustle is real.”