Saturday showdowns: Key matchups in Illinois-Penn State, Louisville-Notre Dame, Georgia-Alabama
Week 5 is the biggest weekend yet in college football, with a mammoth showdown in Tuscaloosa between No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama headlining a sweet slate of games.
Va. Tech and No. 7 Miami will hold some Friday Night Lights action in a matchup that looked much more intriguing a month ago.
Saturday’s noon slate might feature several Contender or Pretender matchups (Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State, No. 22 BYU at Baylor), while this is easily the best 3:30 window of the season (Wisconsin at No. 13 USC, No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame, the Pressure-Cooker Bowl between No. 21 Oklahoma at Auburn, Arkansas vs. No. 24 Texas A&M, Colorado at UCF and the suddenly very interesting Fresno State at UNLV).
While much of the nation will have its eyes on what’s happening in Tuscaloosa, No. 19 Illinois and No. 9 Penn State will also play an early Big Ten game in primetime.
So there are lots of quality games this weekend. For the Week 5 slate, here are three key matchups I’m most interested in seeing:
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State
What does the Nittany Lions’ defense look like without star safety K.J. Winston Jr.?
Penn State is a three-score favorite Saturday night against Illinois, and while its technically a Top 25 showdown against a 4-0 team with two upsets already on their resume (wins over Kansas and Nebraska), I don’t actually see many outcomes other than a Nittany Lions’ victory.
That doesn’t mean PSU’s Big Ten opener lacks intrigue, though.
Penn State has proven its offensive renaissance under Andy Kotelnicki is real. Drew Allar is leading one of the most explosive passing attacks in the country, Tyler Warren might be the best tight end in America and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have found their 2022 mojo again.
The biggest question with Penn State right now centers on Tom Allen’s defense replacing one of its foundational pieces.
Early in the win over Bowling Green two weeks ago, Kevin Winston Jr., suffered an injury that now has the all-conference safety sidelined for the foreseeable future. Winston Jr. is arguably Penn State’s best overall player, and earned Big Ten Player of the Week honors with his 12-tackle, one-forced fumble performance against West Virginia.
Winston is an elite run defender from the safety position (team-best 90.7 grade, per PFF), and solid enough against the pass, and his versatility has allowed Allen to deploy his preferred three-safety scheme. Rather than play a true nickel or third linebacker, Penn State utilizes a ‘Lion’ position, which is basically a third safety with linebacker skills. Jaylen Reed is best in this role, but Winston’s injury may require Reed to slide back to a true safety spot.
The Nittany Lions don’t have much depth at linebacker, and so if they do keep Reed at ‘Lion,’ then they’ll be counting on true freshman Dejuan Lane. This is where losing King Mack to Alabama this spring stings.
So what does this all mean for Saturday’s game against Illinois?
Well, without Winston and the in-game changing parts, Penn State’s secondary struggled to contain Connor Bazelak and the Falcons’ passing offense for the first 35 minutes of action. They allowed 200 yards and two touchdowns before tightening up after halftime.
Now, the Nittany Lions are set to enter the teeth of their schedule (No. 19 Illinois, No. 13 USC and No. 3 Ohio State the next six weeks) against a trio of quality offenses.
The Fighting Illini have struggled to run the ball with any efficiency this season (just 4.4 yards per carry, but perhaps Winston’s absence could help unlock Illinois’ ground game.
The bigger concern for PSU will be stopping one of the most efficient passing offenses in the Big Ten — something no one saw coming this preseason.
In his second season in Champagne, Luke Altmyer leads the Big Ten with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s averaging a quality 8.3 yards per attempt and completing 71% of his throws. Senior wideouts Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin are one of the top tandems in the conference this fall, and they’re going to put pressure on PSU’s secondary Saturday night.
Again, the Nittany Lions should be able to light up the scoreboard against Illinois’ defense, but how their own defense performs (one that picked off Altmyer four times last season in a game he was benched) without Winston will be very telling about this unit’s capabilities against even better offenses on the schedule here soon.
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame
What happens when a rather movable force (the Cardinals’ pass defense) meets a wholly stoppable object (Notre Dame’s passing offense?)
The primetime tilt in South Bend is ripe with juicy storylines.
How good is Jeff Brohm’s team in Year 2? The Cards are 3-0, but they’ve played the nation’s 114th strength of schedule?
Can Marcus Freeman’s team exact revenge on a Louisville squad that physically punished Notre Dame last season. Is this a must-win for the Irish’s playoff hopes?
In terms of individual matchups, who has the edge in the strength-on-strength battle of Tyler Shough and Louisville’s aerial assault (No. 18 passing offense, 10.5 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns to zero picks) against the Irish’s stacked secondary (All-Americans Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts) that’s allowing just 4.9 yards per pass?
We’ll find out.
But what about the other side of that coin? That could be the difference in the game Saturday.
Against the only offense it has faced that can throw the ball, Louisville’s pass defense looked a little leaky (Georgia Tech had 312 yards, 9.8 per throw). The Cards’ passing success rate ranks 88th nationally. They’re allowing 7.9 yards per attempt (90th nationally).
But will that even matter considering the Irish might have the most anemic passing offense of any CFP contender — even Michigan.
They ranked 90th in success rate, and Riley Leonard threw his first passing touchdown last weekend against Miami (OH). The Duke transfer is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt, with a single completion over 20 yards.
Notre Dame opponents — from MAC schools like Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) to Purdue and Texas A&M — are stacking the box and daring Leonard to throw the ball.
And he can’t — or won’t.
Leonard has been flustered by pressure, and if his first read isn’t there, he’s immediately leaving the pocket. When throws are there to be made, he’s been inaccurate, missing open receivers.
If Notre Dame gets behind early, is Leonard capable of leading a comeback through the air? If Notre Dame’s passing offense can’t find some mojo against this Cards’ secondary then it’s never going to take flight this fall.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama
What answers does UGA’s defense have for Jalen Milroe?
The Game of the Century: Part Infinity (hat-tip to SDS’s Connor O’Gara who pointed out on Twitter that Georgia and Alabama have squared off six times since the 2017 seasons as Top-4 teams — something Michigan and Ohio State have done just six times in the last 50 seasons).
The primetime game in Tuscaloosa has a little bit of everything: Narratives. Emotions. Pressure. Two Top-5 teams in a coin-flip affair (2-point spread) — sign me up.
Much of the oxygen around this game has centered on Kirby Smart taking on a Nick Saban-less Alabama, and Kalen DeBoer coaching in perhaps the biggest game of his career — and he was in the national championship game last season.
Bulldogs fans are suddenly concerned about their offense, while Tide fans are full of optimism after they went up to Wisconsin and bludgeoned the Badgers.
But what sparks my curiosity is how will Georgia defend Jalen Milroe this season?
In last year’s SEC Championship Game, Milroe gave Kirby Smart’s defense fits at times — with both his arm and legs. His overall stats (13 of 23 for 192 yards, two passing touchdowns and 65 yards rushing sack adjusted) weren’t eye-popping, but he came up with timely plays over and over that resulted in Alabama’s 27-24 upset.
Just before halftime, Milroe made a key 4th-and-4 conversion to now Texas wideout Isaiah Bond. He stood firm in the pocket against pressure and delivered a strike (and even though replays showed that Bond dropped the ball) — Milroe made the throw that setup the Tide to take a 17-7 lead at halftime vs. giving the ball back to Georgia up 10-7.
In the second half, Alabama’s offense sputtered until Milroe again showed some play-making wizardry, climbing the pocket and tossing the ball to Bond for a big gain for a big third-down conversion on an eventual touchdown drive.
When Georgia answered the score immediately, Milroe then iced the game with his legs — not allowing Carson Beck to touch the football again. The junior rumbled 30 yards on Alabama’s first play, and then had another 9-yard run for a first down that effectively ended the game.
Georgia did a little bit of everything against Milroe last season. The Bulldogs played zone, spied multiple linebackers and blitzed him some. He was sacked five times and was fortunate to hold onto two fumbles, but he still was the reason why Georgia’s three-peat hopes were dashed.
So what will Smart and Glenn Schumann dial up this season? Georgia is more experienced and athletic at linebacker than they were in the SEC title game a year ago, and Jalon Walker has emerged as a freaky Swiss Army playmaker. Top edge Mykell Williams is reportedly set to return to action after missing the last two games.
Will UGA blitz a lot more? Or will it play even more conservative zone coverage and not allow Ryan Williams or Germie Bernard to make explosive plays — daring Milroe to beat them in a phone booth down in the red zone?
Milroe has looked better each week in Kalen DeBoer’s offense, and he’s been a touchdown machine (14 total in four games). If he goes off Saturday night, then the Tide are likely to continue to be a thorn for Smart and the Bulldogs. But if UGA has learned some lessons from playing against Milroe last season?
Well, that’s why I’m intrigued about this chess match.