SEC Baseball: Paths to a regional for the conference's bottom half

Entering the second half of conference play in the SEC, nine teams currently have eight wins or less through five weekends of action.

While not guaranteed, the general threshold for an SEC team making the field of 64 and playing in a regional is 14 conference victories — RPI will also play a role in the selection process, South Carolina missed in 2022 despite having 13 SEC wins thanks to an RPI that finished at No. 69 nationally. The goalposts will move each season.

Assuming that will once again be the case in 2025, plenty teams in the league still have some major work to do if they want to feel secure ahead of the SEC Tournament and the field of 64 selection show on May 26.

Here’s what’s left for each of the nine teams currently hovering just above or below .500 entering the back stretch of the regular season.

Alabama

Record: 30-8 (8-7 SEC)
RPI: No. 11
Remaining SEC Schedule: at No. 9 LSU, vs. Missouri, at No. 19 Vanderbilt, vs. No. 5 Georgia, at Florida

No. 15 Alabama has now lost three of its last four series following a disappointing showing at home against Mississippi State last weekend, where the Bulldogs won two of three in Tuscaloosa. Questions surrounding the Crimson Tide’s pitching staff continue to loom larger as they continue to struggle. Outfielder Kade Snell is Bama’s lone player hitting over .300 in conference play, too.

Luckily for head coach Rob Vaughn and the Tide, they put plenty of hay in the barn early on in the season, thanks to a 22-1 start that included a sweep of Texas A&M and a win over Tennessee to begin conference action. The RPI remains in a choice position.

The remaining schedule isn’t as tough as others fighting to separate from the middle of the pack. Avoiding a sweep in Baton Rouge would likely pay dividends, while a home series against lowly Mizzou should result in three wins.

Bama won’t need to play its best baseball down the stretch to secure a spot in the postseason, though it is currently in need of a big morale boost late in the year.

Vanderbilt

Record: 27-10 (8-7 SEC)
RPI: No. 7
Remaining SEC Schedule: vs. No. 5 Georgia, at No. 11 Ole Miss, vs. No. 15 Alabama, at No. 4 Tennessee, vs. Kentucky

No. 19 Vanderbilt remains a hard nut to crack entering the final five weekends of the regular season. The offensive philosophy in Nashville has yielded mixed results, with the Commodores sweeping Texas A&M and Florida, but losing series to Auburn, Arkansas and now Oklahoma after dropping two of three in Norman over the weekend.

To no surprise, Vandy pitching has, for the most part, continued to trend in the right direction in SEC play. Starters Cody Bowker and JD Thompson are among the top 20 in ERA in conference action. Jonathan Vastine and Riley Nelson are hitting .360 and .340 in the SEC, respectively.

Vandy’s ceiling feels high, but the floor feels lower than others. Much like Alabama, the Commodores are in a great position with the No. 7 RPI nationally. Stacking wins won’t be easy the rest of the way, so trying to take care of business at home will be imperative moving forward. Cooling off red-hot Georgia this weekend would be a great start.

Oklahoma

Record: 26-10 (7-8 SEC)
RPI: No. 22
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Missouri, at No. 5 Georgia, vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, at Kentucky, vs. No. 1 Texas

Oklahoma finds itself in an interesting spot heading into its final five weekends. The Sooners lack the oomph required to stand amongst the SEC’s elite, but they’ve also shown the grit necessary to stand out in the middle of the pack. Some weekends OU looks the part, others not so much.

Coming off a successful series win at home against Vanderbilt last week, Oklahoma now gets a chance to pad its record with a road trip to Mizzou, which is still seeking its first conference victory. From there, the road is stout but not unsightly.

Kyson Witherspoon remains one of the top pitchers in the conference and will give his team a shot at victory every time he steps on the mound. Trey Gambill, Jaxon Willits and Easton Carmichael all have an OPS over .800 in conference play.

A successful finish to the season could bring a Regional to Norman. The opposite could leave head coach Skip Johnson and his team with some work to do heading to Hoover for the SEC Tournament. Will OU keep its momentum?

Kentucky

Record: 20-14 (6-9 SEC)
RPI: No. 39
Remaining SEC Schedule: at No. 4 Tennessee, vs. South Carolina, at Mississippi State, vs. No. 18 Oklahoma, at No. 19 Vanderbilt

Of Kentucky’s 15 SEC games, 10 have been decided by three runs or less. The Wildcats lost weekends to Auburn, Ole Miss and Texas, though each were just a play or two away from swinging in UK’s direction. The law of averages suggest that some good fortune will be headed to Lexington late in the year, but baseball isn’t always as forgiving.

Just four Cats are batting over .250 in conference play, and that doesn’t include star outfielder Cole Hage. The pitching staff is attempting to turn the corner, but there’s been no room to breath at any turn. That won’t change this weekend in Knoxville against Tennessee, either.

The feisty nature of a Nick Mingione-led Kentucky team bodes well against adversity. There’s still work to do, as field of 64 projections have the Wildcats around the bubble. The remaining schedule is more favorable than others, but UK has to try and create some separation late in games, because the coin flip has often landed on the wrong side in 2025.

Texas A&M

Record: 21-15 (6-9 SEC)
RPI: No. 51
Remaining SEC Schedule: at No. 2 Arkansas, at No. 1 Texas, vs. No. 9 LSU, vs. Missouri, at No. 5 Georgia

Many have declared Texas A&M, the preseason No. 1 team in the nation, back following a gritty sweep of South Carolina in College Station last weekend. After stunning Tennessee in Knoxville, the Aggies have won five SEC games in a row and now have a clear path to making a regional, leaving the disastrous first half of the season in the rear view.

The left-handed starting pitching trio of Ryan Prager, Justin Lamkin and Myles Patton continues to give A&M chances to win games. Caden Sorrell has provided a jolt in his return from injury while preseason National Player of the Year Jace LaViolette now quietly has a 1.062 OPS in SEC play. The talent never vanished from this A&M lineup and the pieces are starting to get put together.

That doesn’t mean the Aggies are a lock to make the postseason, however. No team has a harder remaining schedule. Back-to-back road series at Arkansas and Texas is as tough as it gets and making it out of those weekends without getting swept should be considered a victory.

If A&M does fully turn the corner, it should see a nice RPI bump given the remaining competition. Even if it does play better, though, finding consistent success against the top half of the conference is no guarantee.

Mississippi State

Record: 23-14 (5-10 SEC)
RPI: No. 38
Remaining SEC Schedule: vs. Florida, at No. 8 Auburn, vs. Kentucky, vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, at Missouri

A surprising two-win weekend in Tuscaloosa last time out has brought a twinkle of hope to Mississippi State’s season. The Bulldogs have struggled mightily at times in the box and on the mound, yet they’ve now won two series in a row and are looking at a remaining schedule that doesn’t exactly induce fear.

Pico Kohn is a bonafide ace and Hunter Hines has finally found his groove, slashing .353/.468/.667 in SEC action. Mississippi State’s path to consistent success in the SEC is unclear, but vibes in Starkville are on the up.

It now gears up for a crucial home series against Florida, one that could fully eliminate the loser from regional contention. A home series against Kentucky and a road trip to Mizzou at the end of the regular season will provide two more monumental opportunities to pad the conference record. Hope is not lost just yet for MSU.

Florida

Record: 25-14 (4-11 SEC)
RPI: No. 25
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Mississippi State, vs. No. 2 Arkansas, at South Carolina, at No. 1 Texas, vs. No. 15 Alabama

Playing Missouri tends to remedy all worries for a few days and that led to a much-needed sweep for Florida last weekend. Still, the Gators are battered and bruised and don’t have much room for error left this season.

A tremendous start to the season left UF in a great spot heading into conference play, but the last five weeks have been nothing short of disastrous. Perhaps a hot streak could revitalize things in Gainesville, but finding 10 wins against the remaining schedule is a tough ask. Landing a pair of wins in Starkville this weekend would make a final dash to the postseason much more believable.

South Carolina

Record: 21-17 (2-13 SEC)
RPI: No. 48
Remaining Schedule: vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, at Kentucky, vs. Florida, at. No. 8 Auburn, vs. No. 9 LSU

A full-on implosion led to South Carolina getting swept by Texas A&M last weekend, solidifying what’s been a woeful first campaign for vaunted head coach Paul Mainieri. There’s not been many positives to speak of for the Gamecocks since SEC play began.

Henry Kaczmar is hitting .378 in the SEC and Ethan Petry is making his last push to break Justin Smoak’s program home run record, but the USC pitching staff has crumbled as of late. There’s no doubt that the Gamecocks will continue to try and compete, but finding results will remain arduous. Will South Carolina just be a stat-padder for others the rest of the way, or will they play spoiler for others en route to a regional bid?

Missouri

Record: 13-23 (0-15 SEC)
RPI: No. 155
Remaining Schedule: vs. No. 18 Oklahoma, at No. 15 Alabama, vs. No. 5 Georgia, at Texas A&M, vs. Mississippi State

Even for Missouri, this is bad. It feels like the staff in Columbia is fighting a losing battle, one that has shown no signs of changing. The Tigers’ issues are far greater than the below-average product that’s been put on the field this season.

Given the injuries that have piled up and who’s left on the schedule, Mizzou is genuinely staring an 0-30 SEC season square in the face. It’ll be up to the likes of Oklahoma and Mississippi State to not fall asleep at the wheel when they head to Taylor Stadium.