SEC bowl game projections: Athlon releases 2024 predictions

The 2024 college football season is rapidly approaching, which means fans are looking ahead on their favorite team’s schedules, predicting win totals and pondering where they may end up once the postseason rolls around.

Ahead of the new year, Athlon has released its annual bowl game predictions for teams in the Southeastern Conference. 13 teams are expected to find themselves bowling, according to Athlons projections, including a handful of programs slotted for spot in the new 12-team College Football Playoff format. SEC teams that Athlon left out include Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas.

Here’s how they’re predicting the SEC’s postseason slate:

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Birhimgham Bowl: South Carolina vs. Tulane

The South Carolina Gamecocks missed out on a bowl game and finished the 2024 season with a losing record for the first time under head coach Shane Beamer. After finishing his first two seasons with seven or more victories, it appears that Athlon sees Beamer leading his squad back to that threshold as the last two winners of the bowl, East Carolina and Duke, came in with 7-5 records.

SC is 1-2 all-time in the Birmingham Bowl. Their lone victory saw the Gamecocks win the first-ever version of this bowl in 2006 when it was dubbed the PapaJohns.com Bowl.

Citrus Bowl: Missouri vs. Iowa

After consecutive 6-7 seasons, Missouri football enjoyed 11 wins — the program’s first since 2014 — in 2023 which included a 14-3 Cotton Bowl victory over the then No. 7 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The success was invaluable for the Tigers, who’s been searching for that level of play since hiring Eli Drinkwitz in 2020.

While fans are shifting their eyes toward a potential spot in the College Football Playoff, logging nine or 10 wins during the regular season and ending up in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl isn’t the worst way to follow up on Drinkwitz’s best season yet.

Gasparilla Bowl: Florida vs. SMU

Florida is 11-14 under Billy Napier during his first two seasons as Gators head coach. While many are looking for the Gators to shoot higher than the Gasparilla Bowl, Florida boasts one of the hardest schedules in college football next season which makes it tough to project them much higher without seeing them on the field first.

Of course, after missing out on the postseason entirely in 2023 any bowl appearance would be an improvement. With the highly-anticipated takeover of quarterback DJ Lagway looking likely for the 2025 season — there’s no reason why the Gators faithful shouldn’t be excited about the future in Gainesville.

Gator Bowl: LSU vs. Miami (Fla.)

Losing the reigning Heisman Trophy winner means LSU‘s 2024 season will be focused on finding a new identity on offense. Head coach Brian Kelly also made changes across the board to his defensive staff and brought in a slew of new talent on that side of the ball after the Tigers’ defense was largely regarded as LSU’s achilles heel last season.

A Gator Bowl projection in 2024 could lead to something much better for the Tigers in 2025 if their defense can stand strong this fall.

Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Arizona

Texas A&M hired former defensive coordinator Mike Elko has its new head coach to begin the offseason. Tasked with turning around the Aggies program in short order, the former Duke headman was able to turn the Blue Devils from a struggling football program to a contender in the ACC. The expectation is for him to do the same in College Station.

Interestingly, if Texas A&M were to make the Las Vegas Bowl — which has been held annually since 1992 (minus COVID) — they would be the second SEC school to ever appear in the game. Arkansas, who lost to UNLV in 2000, was the last Southeastern Conference team to play in the game.

Liberty Bowl: Auburn vs. West Virginia

Hugh Freeze led Auburn to a 6-7 finish in 2023, squeezing themselves into the Music City Bowl after nearly upsetting rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl in Novemeber.

Quarterback play has been a major question mark for the Tigers heading into 2024. Freeze has opted to develop his current quarterback class instead of “spending a million dollars” for one in the transfer portal. Payton Thorne appears to be his guy, but the Tigers will need more than just 1,755 passing yards 16 touchdowns and10 interceptions from their QB1 this fall.

Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

Nashville is a second home to Big Blue Nation, and the Music City Bowl is beginning to look all-too-familiar for Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats. If UK were to find themselves back at the Music City Bowl, it will be the third time in nine seasons at the Wildcats find themselves in this particular bowl game and seventh all-time.

Improvements were made on UK’s offensive and defensive fronts, along with aquiring former Georgia quarterback Brock Vandagriff from the transfer portal. The Wildcats will need to improve on both sides of the ball if they expect to continue their eight-year bowl streak in 2024.

Reliaquest Bowl: Tennessee vs. Nebraska

Nico Iamaleava takes over as starting quarterback for Josh Heupel’s high-octane offense, leading many to expect a strong season from the Vols in 2024.

After a strong performance in his debut as Tennessee starting quarterback in last season’s Citrus Bowl, Heupel said the Iamaleava is “hyper-focused” on becoming the best version of himself ahead of his first season as QB1. Heupel is not concerned about how his young quarterback will handle the pressure that will come with the Volunteers’ 2024 campaign. As he sees it, it is nothing new for Iamaleava and fans will see that on the field this season.

Texas Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Kansas

Oklahoma is in a similar situation at quarterback as Tennessee. Jackson Arnold gets his turn to be the guy in Norman as a true sophomore after sitting behind new Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel in 2023.

Arnold, a former five-star recruit in the 2023 cylce, passed for 361 yards and a pair of touchdowns for the Sooners in his lone start of the season during OU’s Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. He followed that up with a strong performance in the spring game, so many are hopeful that he’ll have a fruitful career with the Sooners beginning this fall.

College Football Playoff (First Round)

Athlon predicts the SEC to be featured in three of the four first round games in the new 12-team College Football Playoff format. Those games include the following:

• Texas vs. Notre Dame
• Ole Miss vs. Penn State
• Alabama vs. Michigan

The most intruging matchup of the three is a semifinal rematch from 2023 between the Crimson Tide and Wolverines. Both with new head coaches in Kalen DeBoer and Sherrone Moore, a matchup between these two programs so early in the playoffs would be a strong way to kick off the new bracket format.

It also includes Texas making it to the CFP for the second-straight year. The Longhorns fell to DeBoer and Washington in the semifinals last year, but making the field after jumping to the SEC would be quite the feat for Steve Sarkisian, Quinn Ewers and the rest of the Texas football program.

Ole Miss also makes the field for the first time. Seeing Lane Kiffin lead the Rebels to new heights in recent years has been a strong indication that a CFP run could be in their future.

College Football Playoff (Quarterfinals)

Just like the first round, Athlon predicts the SEC to be featured in the three matchups in quarterfinals round. However, one of those games will be SEC vs. SEC in what would be one of the biggest games of the season. Here’s how Athlon projected the CFP quarterfinals:

• Texas vs. Florida State (Peach Bowl)
• Ole Miss vs. Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
• Georgia vs. Alabama (Sugar Bowl)

Not only does Athlon expect Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama to all advance through past the first round, their playoff scenario sees the star align to pair Georgia and Alabama for a spot in the semifinals — a rematch of their regular season matchup.

Meanwhile, Texas and Ole Miss will be tasked with moving past Florida State and Ohio State, respectively.

College Footbal Playoff (Semifinals)

The SEC and Big Ten are expected to be the premier leagues in college football for the foreseeable future, and Athlon has that on full display during the CFP semifinals. Both games feautre SEC vs. Big Ten matchups:

• Georgia vs. Oregon (Orange Bowl)
• Texas vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)

In Athlon’s scenario, Oregon avoids the SEC alltogether until this point, where they’re likely to face their toughest task of the season in the Georgia Bulldogs coming off a projected win over Alabama.

For Texas, they could match up with Ohio State. This makes for an interesting battle, as Longhorns starting quarterback Quinn Ewers began his college career with the Buckeyes. In what many consider his final season on the Forty Acres before turning pro, it would be quite poetic for one of Ewers’ final collegiate games to be against his old team win or lose.

National Championship: Georgia vs. Ohio State

After debris settles and the dust gets swept off, Athlon projects Georgia and Ohio State to be the two teams to match up for the first College Football Playoff National Championship game in the new format. Georgia will be seeking its third national title in four years under head coach Kirby Smart, while Ohio State was the winner of the inauguaral playoff back in 2014.

Altogether, Athlon projects four SEC teams — Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama — to make the field of 12, while eight other teams from the conference will find themselves in the postseason one way or another. If the SEC can capture another CFP crown, now in its new former, it sets the standard for success in the conference moving forward.