SEC coaches share trade secrets on transfer portal strategy: ‘Everybody is trying to get old and stay old’

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama – The transfer portal is here to stay, forcing college basketball coaches across the country to adapt to the new landscape by adjusting their roster-building strategies. Recent track records show, the key to winning in college basketball is to get old and stay old.

This means less incoming freshmen who will be asked to make an immediate impact at high-major schools – particularly at the SEC level – in favor of more proven commodities from the mid-major ranks.

“I think everybody is trying to get old and stay old – and we saw that with the exception of UConn in the Final Four,” said Auburn coach Bruce Pearl at SEC Basketball Media Day. “So the result now will be, rather than me bringing in three or four high school players in each class and then maybe a transfer. I think the reality is we bring in one or two high school players and then fill the roster up with transfers.

“The bottom line is, that 21-year old has got a lot of advantages over experience and just in ability, size and toughness also.”

This year, it will be Aaron Estrada, Grant Nelson and Dalton Knecht among many more looking to enter the SEC and prove that mid-major stars can be high-major stars too.

However, how does a coach know when a mid-major player averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds can bring that same level of production against better opposition night in and night out? Or can they?

Coaches across the SEC – from Rick Barnes and Eric Musselman looking to make deep NCAA Tournament runs once again, to Todd Golden and Mike White looking to build their respective programs from the ground up – are building strategies to increase their hit rate.

How to find the right players

Once coaches establish that they want to fill out a spot on their roster with a transfer portal player rather than a high school prospect, they must scour through a mountain of information. Each coach has their own method to determine the best fits for the program, beyond the obvious need to connect and offer the best pitch.

As one of the pioneers in the transfer portal, Eric Musselman has plenty experience finding the right fit, and he broke down his method.

“How they work against other Division I players. There’s a statistical analysis that goes into it, there’s the eye test that goes into it, then certainly there’s communication with getting feedback from people that have played against that particular player, or maybe the program they’re leaving,” Musselman explained.

Analytics are everywhere in sports, and the transfer portal is no different. When evaluating mid-major players, everyone has a formula.

“A lot of it is analytically driven,” Todd Golden said. “We look at a couple different things: efficiency, their usage, how many possessions do they use. How do they fare against Tier A and B competition, I think that’s something that’s important to look at, to see if their numbers are – if they do really well against the low-major teams but don’t have as much success when they get opportunities to compete against better teams.

“Like everything else, you can’t say for certain that they’re going to do really well or not do well, but you want to give yourself the best chance to figure it out.”

All the calculations in the world cannot fully capture what it takes for a mid-major basketball player to make the leap to an SEC school and compete against a high level of competition across a 30-plus game season. So is there a way to make the acquisition a sure thing? Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes says no.

“I don’t know if you can know that until they get here,” said Barnes. “I’ve said that about recruiting players: until you live with someone every day, you don’t know exactly what you’re going to get out of them. … I think with each guy that you bring in, really and truly, you’re not sure totally until you get with them and get into the grind.”

Creating the right environment

Missouri head coach Dennis Gates burst onto the scene in his first season, bringing players from Cleveland State and other mid-major programs to the SEC with immediate success. His secret formula is less about analytics and more about building the right type of program.

“When you have the right environment and the right coach, the right style of play, it can turn any major or any level of kid into the right level of player,” said Gates. “And it’s a team sport, not an individual sport. We try to identify guys that build our core values of friendship, love, accountability, trust, discipline, unselfishness, enthusiasm, and toughness.

“I truly believe the right kid in our program, no matter what level they’ve transferred from, has made an impact with the city, impact to out institution as a student-athlete, and also in between the lines as a basketball player.”

Mike White is also looking to build the right environment, not only for his incoming players, but across the roster. He believes taking things slow and making each newcomer earn his spot helps everyone.

“I think it’s a gradual process. Each guy has a different process and there are a lot of factors involved, one being the competition on the roster and how they fit, and their development on the court as much as anything, their practice habit. A lot of factors involved.”

Mid-major players see the future

With all the talk about analytics, environment, and more, coaches have one other place left to lean. Who better to learn about the level of competition a player is capable of facing, than the players they faced previously. While most coaches will reach out of other coaches across the country for insight, perhaps the answers of former mid-major stars at SEC Basketball Media Day suggest they can be just as valuable.

“Yes,” Auburn forward Johni Broome quickly answered when asked whether he can pick out high-major talent on another roster. “You can just tell by his confidence in himself because our guys have confidence in each other and themselves. Sometimes, mid-major players don’t have that confidence in themselves and that’s the big key.”

After all, these players went through the adjustment last season and found their way to the podium as one of their team’s star players. Who better to offer insight into the differences between mid-major stardom and high-major success.

“You can tell just by how guys move on the court. Sometimes it looks real smooth to them,” said Florida guard Will Richard. “You can see if they score, or sometimes it’s athleticism and length. You can definitely see that it translates to the next level.”

Perhaps Broome and Richard are destined to be coaches, or maybe basketball players really can develop key insights about their opponents based on their own experience. Either way, if they really can predict the next mid-major star to successfully make the leap, someone will start leaning on their info.