SEC order of finish prediction: Athlon releases 2024 projections

With the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, the SEC will be more competitive than ever in the upcoming season. In June, Athlon Sports released its 2024 projections of how teams will fare in the new-look SEC.

Athlon Sports had no shortage of factors to consider. Along with Texas and Oklahoma’s players, hundreds of transfers joined the SEC this offseason. Additionally, three SEC teams will have new head coaches next season, including Alabama.

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Without further ado, let’s dive into Athlon Sports’ predictions.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Athlon Sports expects Georgia to return to the top of the SEC in the 2024 campaign after falling to Alabama in the conference championship last season. Georgia will return starting quarterback Carson Beck, who tallied 3,941 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 2023.

Georgia’s defense will be spearheaded by returning defensive linemen Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson, who collected a combined 45 tackles and four sacks last season. With the No. 1 class in the 2024 recruiting cycle as well, Georgia is poised for a standout season.

2. Texas Longhorns

Texas has a chance to make an immediate splash in the SEC. The Longhorns have all the momentum they need after reaching the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff last season. Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers stunned fans this offseason when he announced his return.

While Texas’ defense is only returning 66% of its production, per ESPN, the Longhorns still boast a surplus of talent due to the NCAA Transfer Portal. Longhorns fans can expect Clemson transfer safety Andrew Mukuba and Arizona defensive lineman Bill Norton to be instant contributors to Texas’ defense.

3. Ole Miss Rebels

Speaking of the NCAA Transfer Portal, Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin went to work on the transfer trail this offseason. Ole Miss reeled in the No. 3 transfer class, per On3’s Transfer Portal Team Rankings. The talented group is headlined by former Texas A&M DL Walter Nolen, who was the No. 2 player to enter the transfer portal this offseason.

Kiffin didn’t hesitate to add several jaw-dropping pieces to his offense, as well, including former Washington offensive tackles Nate Kalepo and Julius Buelow. The pair will play a key role in protecting Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart, who is an early candidate to win the Heisman Trophy in 2024.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

Nick Saban may be gone but Alabama is still a powerhouse. Head coach Kalen DeBoer will look to send a message in his first season at the helm. Much of his success will depend on quarterback Jalen Milroe, who seemingly only improved in each game last season.

Nonetheless, it won’t be a surprise to see Alabama face a few obstacles. After all, the team lost 34 players to the transfer portal. Further, the team lost two star linebackers and two starting cornerbacks to the NFL. DeBoer has a tall task ahead of him but that’s never stopped him before.

5. Missouri Tigers

Missouri didn’t win the SEC last season but it stole the show. The team finished the year with an 11-2 overall record, capped off by a stunning win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz and Co. will look to excel even further in the upcoming season.

The Tigers certainly have the tools. The team will return QB1 Brady Cook and his top target Luther Burden III, who finished second in the SEC in receiving yards last season. On defense, pass rusher Johnny Walker Jr., tackle Kristian Williams and linebackers Chuck Hicks and Triston Newson are back and hungry for more.

6. LSU Tigers

The Tigers had the No. 1 offense in the nation last season but failed to ever find their defensive identity. New defensive coordinator Blake Baker will look to turn this narrative around in 2024. Baker will have multiple returners, including linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., to help him achieve his goal.

LSU’s offense will face its own course of difficulties. The Tigers lost 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and the program’s all-time leading receiver, Malik Nabers, to the NFL. Now, redshirt junior QB Garrett Nussmeier will aim to fill Daniels’ massive shoes.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

Despite falling near the halfway point of Athlon Sports‘ projections, Tennessee will be no slouch next season. The Volunteers will enter a new era under former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Additionally, Tennessee retained wide receivers Bru McCoy and Squirrel White.

With defensive tackle James Pearce Jr. leading the charge, the Volunteers’ defensive front is expected to be strong next season. However, Tennessee has multiple holes to plug in its secondary after losing 10 defensive backs this offseason, including seven to the transfer portal.

8. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma burst out of the starting gates under head coach Brent Venables last season but dropped three of its final six games. Worse, starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon after the regular season concluded. The Sooners have plenty to prove in 2024.

To start, sophomore QB Jackson Arnold must show he can play against SEC talent. Arnold’s lone career start came in Oklahoma’s 38-24 loss to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. Fortunately for OU, the program is bringing back 79% of its defensive production from last year, which could be key if Arnold struggles early.

9. Texas A&M Aggies

Ahead of Mike Elko‘s first season at the helm of Texas A&M, there are no shortage of question marks surrounding the Aggies. During the staff turnover in the offseason, the program lost 29 players to the transfer portal. Alas, the Aggies added 27 players, as well.

Ironically, returning QB1 Conner Weigman will fuel the Aggies’ offense in 2024. Weigman started the first four games of the season last year before suffering a season-ending injury. On the flip side, Texas A&M will boast Purdue transfer Nic Scourton, who led the Big Ten in sacks last season.

10. Auburn Tigers

Head coach Hugh Freeze made waves during his debut campaign with the Tigers last season. Under his supervision, Auburn was one play away from knocking off Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Now, Freeze will look to build on that momentum.

Auburn returns 74% of its offensive production from last season. However, its defense will be nearly unrecognizable. After the season, the Tigers parted ways with defensive coordinator Ron Roberts and hired former Texas A&M DC DJ Durkin.

11. Florida Gators

If Florida has another losing season in 2024, it will be the first time the program has had three straight losing campaigns since the 1940s. Head coach Billy Napier has the pieces to avoid landing on the wrong side of history.

Quarterback Graham Mertz, running back Montrell Johnson and receiver Eugene Wilson III are returning for the upcoming season. In contrast, Florida’s defense will have multiple fresh faces, including Colorado transfer CB Cormani McClain and South Carolina transfer LB Grayson Howard.

12. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky has finished the past two seasons with a 7-6 overall record. In 2024, head coach Mark Stoops and Co. will look to take a step forward. After offensive coordinator left the program, Stoops hired former Boise State OC Bush Hamdan.

Georgia transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff will lead UK’s offense during its first year under Hamdan. Defensive tackle Deone Walker is expected to be an All-SEC talent in 2024 while others such as transfer linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson provide support.

13. South Carolina Gamecocks

After posting a 5-7 record last season, South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer is in the hot seat. However, the Gamecocks are far from doomed in the 2024 campaign. LaNorris Sellers will replace former quarterback Spencer Rattler, who went to the NFL this offseason.

The team also added Arkansas transfer running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders. Senior linebacker Debo Williams will be the face of South Carolina’s defense. He tallied a team-high 113 tackles with 9.0 tackles for loss and one sack last season.

14. Arkansas Razorbacks

Beamer isn’t the only head coach under immense pressure. Under HC Sam Pittman, Arkansas went 1-7 in conference play last year. Over the offseason, Pittman hired offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, who previously served as the program’s head coach.

Petrino has his work cut out for him, with the Razorbacks only returning 50% of its offensive production from 2023. Arkansas’ defense returns even less. However, Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams showed promise last season, guiding the Razorbacks to No. 46 in the country in yards allowed per game.

15. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State will have a clean slate in 2024 with head coach Jeff Lebby in the driver’s seat. Lebby is a proven offensive mastermind, and his first offense at MSU will likely be led by Baylor transfer QB Blake Shapen. In eight games last year, Shapen passed for 2,188 yards and 13 touchdowns while rushing for four more scores.

The Bulldogs’ defense warrants more concern. MSU lost seven of its top eight tacklers from a season ago, including linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson, who finished first and second, respectively, in the SEC in tackles. The Bulldogs must find their defensive footing if they want to succeed in 2024.

16. Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt was the only SEC team that failed to win a conference game last season. Evidently, Athlon Sports doesn’t expect the Commodores’ fortune to change. Despite the outlet’s expectations, Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea made major changes to his program this offseason.

First, he fired offensive coordinator Joey Lynch and replaced him with former New Mexico State OC Tim Beck. Then, Lea announced he will serve as Vanderbilt’s defensive coordinator, in addition to his head coaching duties, in 2024.