SEC Order of Finish Prediction: Phil Steele projects conference standings for 2024 college football
The 2024 season will see plenty of changes around college football, and the SEC is right in the middle of it. Two teams are joining the fray, meaning Phil Steele’s SEC order of finish prediction is taking on a new look.
Texas and Oklahoma are joining the fray, taking the league to 16 teams after the calendar flips to July. Both programs appear poised to make some noise in the SEC, and one of them tied for first in Steele’s order of finish prediction.
Here’s the full breakdown of Phil Steele’s projections. It includes a familiar face at the top of the rankings, as well.
1. Georgia
After falling short in the SEC Championship a season ago, Georgia appears to be the favorite in the conference once again. The Bulldogs have some firepower back, notably at quarterback, and bolstered the running game by bringing in Trevor Etienne from the transfer portal.
Carson Beck remains the headliner in Athens after an impressive 2023 season. He shook off an up-and-down start as he went on to throw for almost 4,000 yards and generate some early Heisman Trophy buzz after choosing to return to Georgia.
2. Texas
One of the SEC newcomers also possesses one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. Texas makes a strong case for the nation’s best quarterback room with Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning and Trey Owens in the room, and Steve Sarkisian has plenty of momentum after a special 2023 season.
The Longhorns made their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance after a 12-1 record and a Big 12 championship. Although they fell to Washington in the matchup, Texas has a strong combination of incoming freshmen and transfer portal talent to keep things rolling in the SEC.
3. Alabama
It’s officially a new era in Tuscaloosa as Kalen DeBoer gets ready for his first season as Alabama head coach. The Crimson Tide still have some question marks after some high-profile portal entries, but there’s still plenty of talent left from Nick Saban’s final season to generate optimism in T-Town.
Alabama’s most notable returning piece is Jalen Milroe, who took a huge leap forward last year after finding himself on the bench. He’s also seen as a potential Heisman contender and will be the focal point of DeBoer’s high-powered offense as the Crimson Tide start the next chapter.
4. Ole Miss
Two years ago, Lane Kiffin became the self-proclaimed “Portal King” before handing the title over. There’s a strong case to be made he took the crown back this offseason after bringing in three of the top 25 players – all of which came from SEC rivals – in the On3 Industry Transfer Rankings.
Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen are both coming in to anchor the defense, and Juice Wells will step in as an instant-impact receiver. That’s a strong foundation for Jaxson Dart, who’s entering his third season at Ole Miss, but it will still be interesting to see how the Rebels fit into the new-look SEC picture with so many new faces coming aboard.
T-5. LSU
Last year, LSU’s biggest issue was its defense. Brian Kelly took a big swing to address that, hiring Blake Baker away from Missouri – and the first question will be how Harold Perkins fits into the new scheme.
The Tigers also saw some notable losses on offense with Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas going in the first round of the NFL Draft. That means it’ll be Garrett Nussmeier’s show as LSU looks to rebound from an up-and-down 2023 season.
T-5. Missouri
After coming in as a bottom-half prediction in the SEC preseason poll, Missouri became a breakout team. Eli Drinkwitz’s group won 10 games for the first time since 2014 and created plenty of positive momentum heading into 2023.
Luther Burden became one of the SEC’s most dominant players and is back for another go-round in 2024, and Five Star Plus+ EDGE Williams Nwaneri highlights the group of newcomers. Suddenly, Mizzou looks like it could be a contender in the conference once again with Brady Cook coming back to call the shots at quarterback.
T-5. Oklahoma
The other SEC newcomer saw plenty of turnover this offseason. Oklahoma went 10-3 last season, but is preparing to see a new face at quarterback paired with a new offensive coordinator in 2024.
It’s officially Jackson Arnold’s show in Norman after Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, and he’ll join co-offensive coordinators Seth Littrell and Joe Jon Finley as part of OU’s new Air Raid-style scheme. A change also took place on defense as Zac Alley came in to take over a unit that features Billy Bowman and Danny Stutsman after All-Big 12 seasons a year ago.
T-5. Tennessee
Another high-profile quarterback change is awaiting on Rocky Top, where Nico Iamaleava is set to take the reins at Tennessee. He spent the 2023 campaign sitting behind Joe Milton, but the former top recruit is now getting the keys to the sports car that is Josh Heupel’s offense.
It’s not just the offense generating some buzz, though. The Tennessee defense also features some big names, headlined by EDGE James Pearce – On3’s No. 1 player in the 2024 Top 100 players in college football – to help make the Vols a bit of a wild card in the SEC this season.
9. Texas A&M
It’s officially the Mike Elko era at Texas A&M after the school parted ways with Jimbo Fisher midway through the 2023 season. The Aggies got hit hard by the portal, though, making Elko’s job tougher as he returns to College Station and is a reason they came in at No. 9 in Phil Steele’s predictions.
A key returning piece, though, is Conner Weigman. He appeared to be making strides last year before an injury cut his season short, but there’s already some buzz about his potential under new offensive coordinator Collin Klein.
10. Florida
It’s shaping up to be a big year for Billy Napier at Florida. After a rough National Signing Day and back-to-back five-win seasons, the pressure is ramping up even as the Gators take on one of the nation’s toughest schedules in 2024.
It wasn’t all bad news on Signing Day, though, as DJ Lagway signed with Florida to join an offense that still includes Tre Wilson after a big freshman campaign. But Phil Steele predicts the Gators to finish in the bottom half of the SEC, and all eyes will be on how they handle such a tough slate of games.
T-11. South Carolina
Another team with some question marks is South Carolina. The Gamecocks lost Spencer Rattler and Xavier Legette to the NFL Draft, meaning LaNorris Sellers and Robby Ashford will battle it out for the starting job.
Shane Beamer and Co. had a rough go in 2023, finishing with a 5-7 record to miss out on a bowl game. All told, 15 starters are coming back – including star athlete Nyck Harbor – but a tough schedule could make things tough for South Carolina’s quest for a bounce-back.
T-11. Kentucky
Another interesting SEC team is in Lexington, where Kentucky is looking to maintain the consistency it’s found under Mark Stoops. Of course, the Wildcats almost lost their coach this offseason, but it’s hard to count out another bowl game appearance this year.
UK made one of the more interesting splashes in the portal, bringing in former Georgia quarterback Brock Vandagriff after Devin Leary headed to the NFL. Along with 18 returning starts, the Wildcats could find themselves with an opportunity to play spoiler, although Phil Steele ranked them tied for 11th in his predictions.
T-11. Auburn
Year 1 for Hugh Freeze at Auburn was a rough go, but the Tigers still made it to a bowl game. Despite some big moves in the portal – notably landing former Penn State receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith – Phil Steele doesn’t see the Tigers finishing in the top half of the SEC.
Payton Thorne is back at quarterback and received a big vote of confidence from Freeze this offseason, and a leap forward could be in the cards. However, Steele said Auburn could use one more year before becoming a real player in the league as Freeze rebuilds.
14. Arkansas
All eyes are on Fayetteville this year as Sam Pittman enters a crucial year at Arkansas. He moved on from offensive coordinator Dan Enos part-way through his first year with the Razorbacks, and the 2024 season could be important for Pittman’s future with the program.
KJ Jefferson is out after transferring to UCF, meaning it could be Taylen Green’s show at quarterback. Nonetheless, it’s looking like it could be another rough year for Arkansas, which came in at No. 14 in Phil Steele’s SEC predictions.
15. Mississippi State
After Zach Arnett lasted less than a season as Mississippi State head coach, replacing the late Mike Leach, Jeff Lebby is now in. As far as how the Bulldogs will fare in his first season, Phil Steele expects a rough go.
Blake Shapen is in at quarterback to run Lebby’s spread offense, but MSU only has 10 starters coming back. Add in a challenging schedule, and it has the makings for a bumpy ride for the new headman.
15. Vanderbilt
Clark Lea made some big changes this offseason – moving on from both coordinators – but Vanderbilt could be in for another tough year in 2024. The Commodores notably lost quarterback Ken Seals and wide receiver London Humphreys to the transfer portal, adding to the new faces in Nashville.
Vanderbilt has struggled in three years under Lea after he took on a tough job in the portal landscape. Phil Steele expects the Commodores to finish at the bottom of the SEC again, though, although they do have some experience coming back.
The SEC will officially welcome Oklahoma and Texas July 1, kicking off its new era. It will also mark the beginning of the league’s new media rights deal, meaning games will no longer air on CBS as they move exclusively to ESPN and ABC.