Dear Andy: Should Alabama fans worry about the program's long-term health?

Alabama will play a potentially trying game in Knoxville on Saturday, and you, the listeners of Andy & Ari On3, have questions. Let’s dive into the latest edition of Dear Andy to answer your college football questions.

From Tyler:
As an Alabama fan striving to be rational, when should I start to worry about the status of the program (not season)? Cardiac Kalen is killing me, but I don’t want to be premature in my judgments.

The terms “rational” and “Alabama fan” don’t often belong in the same sentence, but Tyler has asked questions here for a long time and doesn’t strike me as someone who would poison a tree to get revenge for a loss or even rant to Paul Finebaum after a particularly stressful win. He’s pretty even-keel. 

That said, six games into Kalen DeBoer’s tenure feels a tad early to start questioning the future of the entire program. But a win against Georgia followed by a loss to Vanderbilt followed by an almost-loss to South Carolina is the kind of emotional roller-coaster that can make a fan ask a lot of big-picture questions — especially when the rest of the schedule is tough and the team isn’t dominating the way it did under the last guy.

The last guy is, of course, the GOAT. Nick Saban created a team that felt invincible. And when it did lose, it rarely came close to losing again the following week to another team with inferior talent.

It may be that a shift to more competitive games was always going to happen for Alabama no matter who coached the team. The sport has changed. A few elite programs can’t stockpile the best players anymore. There was a time in the Saban era when Alabama’s backups probably would have beaten every team ranked below No. 15. That hasn’t been the case in the era of NIL and unlimited transfers.

I wonder if Saban saw some of these results coming, and I wonder if that’s why he retired when he did. I visited Saban in Tuscaloosa for Sports Illustrated in November 2017 as he was working toward his sixth national title (fifth at Alabama). In his office, he told me this:

“I’m never satisfied. My greatest fear, professionally is that we might lose the next game. It’s not because of the fans. It’s not because of the expectations. I want to do the best job I can to help our players have the best opportunity to do that. I hate the feeling you have when you lose, but I also hate the feeling that you have when you didn’t do a good job for your players.”

The next bit is the key…

“When I get to where I don’t feel that way anymore, I would rather call it quits than to be satisfied watching it go down.”

Saban never wanted to preside over a program that didn’t dominate the way Alabama dominated for most of his tenure. But perhaps it’s impossible in this era for any program to dominate that way. Saban, who always seemed five steps ahead of his competitors, probably realized that well before he actually retired.

What does that mean for Alabama going forward? It means the Crimson Tide can still win, and win a lot. They can still win SEC and national championships. But it probably also means the years with multiple regular-season losses will come more frequently. And there will be fewer SEC games that can be chalked up as automatic wins.

Welcome to the world as nearly everyone else experiences it, Tyler. It’s going to take some getting used to.

From @ddwag:
If Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon all finish 12-0 while Ohio State is 9-3 (the only losses being to undefeated teams) A. Which undefeated would be left out of Indy? B. Would Ohio State make the playoff?

Part of the reason I chose this question is because I love the instant predictions of doom every time Ohio State loses a game. (Because usually that doom doesn’t happen and the Buckeyes just start beating teams mercilessly again.) 

But I also thought it would be interesting to take the tiebreakers in the new Big Ten for a test drive. Plus, this also is a great way to plug the interview Ari Wasserman and I did with Indiana coach Curt Cignetti this week.

I’ll start by answering section B. I don’t think Ohio State would make the College Football Playoff in that scenario. Maybe it could if there was massive chaos in the other conferences, but the three 12-0 teams would get in along with four other conference champs and probably at least three more SEC teams. That would leave two spots. If the ACC has a 12-1 champ and a 12-1 runner-up, the runner-up is taking one of those spots. Ohio State would have to hope there wasn’t another 10-2 SEC team or an 11-2 or 12-1 Big 12 runner-up. An 11-1 Notre Dame also would be a problem.

Now let’s go to the tiebreakers to answer section A.

Tiebreaker No. 1 (head-to-head matchups among the tied teams) is out, because none of the three will have played one another.

Tiebreaker No. 2 (record against common conference opponents) is out, because no one has a conference loss.

Tiebreaker No. 3 (record against common conference opponents based on conference opponents’ records) also is out for the same reason.

Tiebreaker No. 4 probably would solve the puzzle. It would rank the teams based on the cumulative conference win percentage of each team’s conference opponents. Essentially, the two teams that played the toughest conference schedule go to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game. Because the schedule is so front-loaded with non-conference games, we don’t have a ton of data yet. But we can project.

Oregon’s best opponents — based on what we’ve seen so far — are Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin. 

Penn State’s best opponents are Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin and USC. 

Indiana’s best opponents are Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska.

All three play Ohio State, Maryland and Washington, so it comes down to the records of the other six conference opponents on each schedule. Based on who each plays, my guess would be that Oregon and Penn State would play for the conference title. 

From Hollywood Spence:
What (customized) 12 team conference would create the best dinner party menu if you were preparing their mascots to be served to your guests? 

The Dinner Party Conference would make for one hell of a meal and possibly an even better season…

Texas – Bevo gives us steaks, brisket, beef rib and burgers. (Also Rocky Mountain Oysters.)

Arkansas – Tusk gives us pulled pork, spare ribs, bacon and ham.

South Carolina – You know what tastes like chicken? Sir Big Spur.

Virginia Tech – Who doesn’t love a turkey leg?

Colorado State – Could go with mutton or lamb, depending on the age of the mascot.

Colorado – Ralphie is a bison, not a buffalo. And we can get leaner, juicer versions of the stuff we got from Bevo.

Navy – If you’ve been to a good Jamaican restaurant and had curry goat, you understand.

Florida – Fried gator tail is an elite appetizer.

Oregon – Confit duck legs are getting devoured at this dinner party.

Maryland – Nothing like a bowl of turtle soup with a sherry floater.

Delta State – Delta State’s team is officially nicknamed the Statesmen, but unofficially the mascot is the Fighting Okra. So let’s fry up some and pickle some more.

South Dakota State – Paneed jackrabbit will be the dish everyone is talking about the next day.

A Random Ranking

Reader Derek would like me to rank the best meat-and-three combinations. For those not from the South, a meat-and-three is a restaurant where diners select one entree and three sides. Perhaps the best version of this is Ajax Diner in Oxford, Miss. The best chain version is Lizard’s Thicket in South Carolina. The options are plentiful, and ranking these was incredibly difficult.

1. Meat: Fried chicken; Three: Black-eyed peas, collard greens, macaroni and cheese
2. Meat: Country fried steak; Three: Green beans, butterbeans, mac and cheese
3. Meat: Roast turkey; Three: Mashed potatoes and gravy, mac and cheese, green beans
4. Meat: Fried catfish; Three: Fried okra, rice and gravy, collard greens
5. Meat: Fried pork chop; Three: Lima beans, black-eyed peas, mashed potatoes and gravy