Should Michigan be the prohibitive favorites to win the Big Ten East over Ohio State?

Michigan commanded college football headlines Tuesday, as Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is reportedly facing a four-game suspension for lying to the NCAA while the Maize & Blue were picked as the prohibitive preseason favorite to win the Big Ten in advance of this week’s media days. 

The Harbaugh news potentially has more shoes to drop, as Michigan’s enigmatic coach could totally go nuclear on the NCAA during Media Days in Indianapolis. But in all likelihood, I don’t see the ban having an outsized impact on the 2023 season — the four games are all at home against the likes of also-rans East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.

What’s more interesting is the fact the Wolverines are considered such overwhelming favorites to win the Big Ten East over archrival Ohio State. 

For the first time in four years, OSU wasn’t picked to win the league. Last preseason, the Buckeyes were the unanimous favorites to win the Big Ten East. In the words of Michael Scott, “Well, well, well. How the turntables. Well.” On Tuesday, Michigan garnered 73% of the first-place votes. Just eight media members (out of 37) picked the Buckeyes to win the division.

The Wolverines have won two straight over the Buckeyes, and are looking to win three consecutive games in the storied series for the first time since 1995 to 1997 — not coincidentally the last time they were national champions, too. 

Harbaugh & Co., return as much production as any team in the Big Ten. They get Ohio State in the Big House on Thanksgiving weekend and are seeking a third-consecutive College Football Playoff bid — something only Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma have accomplished. 

Michigan earning the preseason nod over OSU makes sense, but should the Wolverines be considered such overwhelming favorites?

Both teams have preseason win-totals set at 10.5, and oddsmakers actually have Ohio State as the slight favorite to win the Big Ten in 2023. I expected the vote to be very similar to what took place last week at SEC Media Days, where Alabama was a slim favorite over LSU to win the SEC West — largely because the Tide host the Tigers at home in November. 

At first glance, the Buckeyes seemed to be a bit discounted based on their overall talent and ceiling. Sure, they have questions at quarterback with Kyle McCord’s inexperience, but Ryan Day has developed three straight QBs into first-round draft picks (Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and CJ Stroud).

Plus, based on pure recruiting rankings, Buckeyes arguably have a better roster 1-85.

But some quick back-of-the-napkin math comparing each positional unit between Michigan and Ohio State tells a different story, which is why I understand how the majority of media members picked Michigan to win the Big Ten for the third straight season. 

Let’s say that McCord does what every other Ohio State quarterback does under Ryan Day, which is throw for 3,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, and led by Marvin Harrison Jr., perhaps the best non-QB player in all of college football, the Buckeyes have the top pass catching corp in America, I still give the Wolverines the nod at offensive line, tailback, defensive line/edge, linebacker, cornerback and safety. 

Buckeyes fans can quibble with the DL/edge rankings, and I’m open to arguments there, but the Wolverines would still hold most of the better positional units. Jim Harbaugh has also out-coached Ryan Day in each of the last two seasons — another chit in Michigan’s favor. 

So I think the Big Ten beat writers got it right.

The pressure is on Ryan Day to end the losing streak to the Team Up North, but until he does flip the series back in Ohio State’s favor, Michigan rightly deserves to be the favorite — even overwhelming so.