Stars Matter: Takeaways from On3 Draft by Stars data

On3’s Draft by Stars data provides an illuminating look into how recent NFL Draft picks were ranked as high school recruits according to the On3 Consensus. Using this product, we’re able to track the high school ratings of NFL Draft picks over the past 10 years in one, three and five year increments. We’re also able to sort through the data by state within those time parameters, providing a one-of-a-kind view geographical trends over varying time periods.

Needless to say, there’s a ton of information and angles to dig in to here. For now, we’ll focus on some big-picture takeaways from the national star rating data.

The industry is best at forecasting 5-stars

On3 Draft by Stars data indicates five-star prospects are drafted at much higher rates than all other prospects.

For instance, 23 former five-stars were picked in the 2021 NFL Draft. The On3 data shows the five-stars accounted for 8.9% of all picks in the draft, despite representing just 0.7% of all prospects. The five-stars were drafted at a 71.9% rate – several times higher than that of four-stars, three-stars and two-stars/unranked prospects. The On3 Draft by Stars data also indicates the five-stars in the 2021 NFL Draft were 29.7 times more likely to be drafted than two-stars and unrated prospects.

The results show a trend as we expand the view out to the last five years. 119 former five-star prospects were drafted in NFL Draft from 2017 to 2021 at a 63% rate, making five-stars 16.7 times more likely to be drafted than two-stars and unrated prospects.

Using these results, it’s safe to conclude the recruiting industry is doing a very good job at ranking five-star prospects. Recent NFL Drafts have seen several former five-stars taken as top picks. Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Surtain II, Micah Parsons, and Justin Fields were former Five-Star Plus+ prospects taken towards the front end of the first round in 2021. Three former five-stars (Chase Young, Jeff Okudah and Tua Tagovailoa) were taken inside the top five in 2020.

It’s not just the top picks, though. We’re seeing five-stars getting drafted through middle and later rounds at higher rates, as well. Relative to the other groups, the recruiting industry is doing a great job in selecting five-star prospects.

Recruiting rankings are improving

The recruiting industry has shown improvement in ranking five and four-star prospects over the last ten years, per the On3 data.

The group of five-star prospects from 2017 to 2021 we looked at earlier represents a marked improvement over the previous five year sample of five-stars. The 63% five-star draft rate from 2017-2021 was up 13.4% over the rate from 2012-2016 (49.6%). Five-stars from 2017-2021 were 16.7 times more likely to be drafted than two-stars and unrated prospects as opposed to 5.3 times more likely from 2012 to 2016.

While not as drastic as the five-star cohort, we still saw some marginal improvement among the four-stars, as well.

Four-star prospects from 2017-2021 were drafted at a 22.1% rate and 5.9 times more likely to be picked than two-stars and unrated prospects. That’s up 3.3% from the four-star draft rate from 2012-2017 (18.8%) over a nearly four times larger sample of players than the five-stars.

There are a several factors that could be spurring the rankings improvement.

For one, prospect video has become much more widely available over the last ten years. Prospects started to put their highlights on Hudl in earnest around the 2012 and 2013 recruiting cycles. Within a few years, the vast majority of FBS prospects had easily accessible video. National camp circuits like The Opening and Under Armour Camp Series allowed for in-person evaluations along with verified measurements and athletic testing data for thousands of prospects. It’s also likely the industry has benefitted from gaining experience in formulating rankings over the past 20 years.

Are there too many 4-stars?

On3 founder Shannon Terry made an interesting point concerning the industry’s hit rate for five-star and four-star prospects.

Recruiting industry rates prospects to the draft. Ind has crushed 5-star predictions for yrs. 4-star ratings have suffered due to the services naming too many 4-stars (if draft is the baseline). Maybe annual avg total for On3 Consensus should be lower. 👇https://t.co/VNd1OAde76

— Shannon Terry (@ShannonTerry) March 22, 2022

The On3 Consensus currently accounts for 418 four-stars by the end of each recruiting cycle. The 32 five-stars are added to the four-stars to conclude with 450 blue-chip prospects.

The number of picks in the NFL Draft typically ranges from 250-260, depending on the number of compensatory selections, which varies from year to year. Recruiting cycles and draft years are not truly analogous – players from multiple recruiting cycles are in every NFL Draft. There are also players from five to six recruiting cycles (depending on medical redshirts or COVID years) in college football at any given time. Even then, the numbers point to there being more former four-star prospects in college football than available draft picks.

Lowering the number of four-stars in the On3 Consensus formula would more than likely increase the industry hit rate by simply making the number of blue-chip prospects closer to the total available draft spots.

Year-to-year variance remains

As you flip through the individual years within On3’s Draft by Stars page, it becomes apparent there’s still considerable variance on a yearly basis.

The fact there are fewer five-star prospects leaves the door open for fluctuation from year to year. The smaller sample can be affected by a down group of five-stars much more easily than the four-star or three-star groups. We don’t typically see five-star prospects go undrafted purely due to talent reasons. That leaves catastrophic injuries and off-field reasons as the primary culprits – both more difficult to forecast than talent level.

It also remains to be be seen how increased player movement throughout college football as a result of the one-time transfer rule and the emergence of the Transfer Portal will affect the data. In many cases, former top prospects can find more immediate paths to playing time. This is particularly true with quarterbacks. Still, it’s hard to say how much increased player transience will impact the Draft by Stars data.