Start or sit? Playing time projections for all 11 SEC transfer quarterbacks

With former Southern Miss quarterback Jack Abraham committing to Missouri on Monday, the 2022 SEC transfer portal quarterback carousel looks ready to stop spinning as we enter the summer. 

Eli Drinkwitz may have just landed a starter as a walk-on, but what about the rest of the transfer QBs who hope to play in the SEC this fall?

Eleven quarterbacks transferred to 10 SEC schools this offseason, with South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler the lone guaranteed starter of the entire group. Still, as many as five other SEC transfer quarterbacks could legitimately start this fall at Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M and/or Missouri — which would represent close to half of the conference. That number jumps to eight when you add 2021 transfer quarterbacks Will Levis (Penn State) at Kentucky and Hendon Hooker (Va. Tech) at Tennessee, but for the purposes of this exercise, those guys don’t count. 

If we had a crystal ball we’d know how the battles on the Plains or in the Grove will shake out. But we don’t. Instead, using some post-spring intel plus some educated guesswork, here’s a reverse ranking of all the SEC transfer quarterbacks in terms of projected playing time in 2022. 

The 2022 SEC transfer QB crop

11. Navy Shuler, Tennessee (from Appalachian State) — The Vol legacy is a preferred walk-on after not seeing any action for the Mountaineers in 2021. The former 3-star prospect out of Christ School (N.C.) is the son of former Tennessee great Heath Shuler, who starred at QB for the Vols in 1992 and 1993.

10. Cade Fortin, Arkansas (from USF) — A former Texas A&M commit and North Carolina signee, Fortin joined the Razorbacks’ program as a preferred walk-on in January. Fortin has transferred once already before, starting the first two games for South Florida in 2021. He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt with two interceptions in two losses, and while Arkansas’ quarterback room is thin, Fortin is unlikely to see action with the Hogs.

9. Deuce Hogan, Kentucky (from Iowa) — The former 4-star prospect out of Texas in the 2020 class threw one pass in two seasons for the Hawkeyes. He left the program in December due to what his mom described in a Facebook post as a slanderous statement by Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz earlier in the season. The Wildcats have a bonafide 1-2 with Levis and backup Beau Allen, but Hogan is a quality 3rd-string, insurance option for Mark Stoops.

8. Jack Miller, Florida (from Ohio State) — Miller had a chance to unseat Anthony Richardson as Florida’s potential starting quarterback this spring, but AR-15 ran away with the competition. Although Miller, a former blue-chip recruit in the 2020 class, struggled in the spring game, he stands to be Richardson’s primary backup and considering Richardson’s recent injury history, the Ohio State transfer could certainly see action at some point this fall. 

7. Robby Ashford, Auburn (from Oregon) — The former two-sport star from Mobile (Ala.) had a nice A-Day showing playing behind an iffy Tigers’ offensive line, emerging as a potential X-factor in the battle with incumbent TJ Finley and fellow transfer Zach Calzada. Ashford is the best athlete in the room, and could totally win AU’s job since the Tigers lack real explosiveness at the skill positions. How well Ashford continues to improve operating Harsin’s offense will go a long way in determining where he sits in the Tigers’ pecking order though.

6. Zach Calzada, Auburn (from Texas A&M) — The lean here is Calzada ultimately gets the nod over Ashford and Finley thanks to experience. The former Aggies has a win over Alabama on his resume, but also 10 other career starts. Still, much like Finley, accuracy issues (56.1 completion percentage in 2021) are a real concern. Can he show a better propensity of not throwing the ball 99 miles per hour every time? Calzada may not open Week 1 as Auburn’s QB1 but he stands a strong chance of logging multiple starts in what could be a musical chairs-like competition.

5. Jack Abraham, Missouri (from Mississippi State) — Drinkwitz was bound and determined to add another arm to Mizzou’s QB room and he did that by grabbing the well-traveled Abraham as a preferred walk-on. It’s been a circuitous career for Abraham, who signed with Louisiana Tech in 2016, later transferred to Northwest Mississippi Community College, started two seasons at Southern Miss and then sat out last year at Mississippi State due to post-concussion syndrome. Get all that! Abraham led the nation in completion percentage in 2018 (73.1 percent) and threw 41 touchdowns over three years. He also tossed 29 picks and battled multiple injuries. Considering how dogged Drinkwitz was about adding someone to the mix this offseason to compete with Brady Cook and Tyler Macon, Abraham stands a legitimate chance to start in the SEC in the fall. 

4. Jayden Daniels, LSU (from Arizona State) — This slotting could look quite foolish if Daniels starts in the opener for the Tigers and looks awesome against Florida State, but I’ve already planted my flag on another LSU QB island this spring. 

Way-too-early prediction for LSU in 2022 after spring game: QB1 race is really between Myles Brennan or Garrett Nussmeier.

Ballyhooed Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels is resigned to gimmick plays, designed runs as change-of-pace option.

— Jesse Simonton (@JesseReSimonton) April 23, 2022

Daniels is an electric athlete and should have a role in LSU’s offense this fall, but Myles Brennan and Garrett Nussmeier both had better springs and offer more consistency in the passing game. Brian Kelly likes running quarterbacks and Daniels did take the initial snaps in the spring scrimmage, so he remains a real factor in a fascinating QB race down in Baton Rouge.

3. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (from USC) — The former 5-star recruit had a tough spring operating Lane Kiffin’s offense, throwing multiple interceptions in the Grove Bowl. While Luke Altmyer enters the offseason with a slight lead in the battle, it would be surprising if Dart didn’t receive a real look at some point early this fall. He’s that talented. He must cut down on all the risky throws, but if it all clicks, the USC transfer could put monster numbers throwing to an impressive collection of Rebels playmakers including the recently-added Jaylon Robinson.

2. Max Johnson, Texas A&M (from LSU) — Max Johnson is Mr. Steady Eddy, and for a quarterback who plays in a very demanding Jimbo Fisher offense, that’s an important trait to possess. Texas A&M’s intriguing QB battle is likely to last until the final week of training camp. Haynes King or 5-star freshman Conner Weigman could earn the nod later in the season, but stands to be a factor all season.

1. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (from Oklahoma) — The easiest layup among the 11 transfers, as Rattler cemented his hold on the Gamecocks’ starting job the second he arrived in Columbia. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite a year ago, Rattler could make South Carolina history with a big 2022 season — becoming the school’s first All-SEC quarterback ever. The focus this summer is for Rattler to continue to grow comfortable in Marcus Satterfield’s offense, building rapport with a new group of wideouts and tight ends.