Stick or Flip: Recruiting insiders weigh on country's top commits

The silly season of college football recruiting is upon us. With only six weeks remaining until the December early signing period kicks off, the pedal is on the floor as programs look to close out the 2023 cycle on a high note. A number of uncommitted stars remain on the board, include 11 of the country’s top 32 recruits, but they’re not the only ones with coaches in their ear.

A host of committed prospects are — and have been — receiving heavy interest from other schools. A a year ago, nearly 90 Power Five recruits flipped their commitments to another P5 school between Thanksgiving and Christmas. And with name, image and likeness playing an even bigger role this cycle, that number could grow even further. With the help of On3’s national recruiting team and fan site insiders, we make some early predictions on which top recruits will stick and and which will flip between now and December.

5-star S Peyton Bowen — Notre Dame commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 19
The Skinny: Peyton Bowen committed to Notre Dame in January, but has received continued interest from Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Oregon, among others.

Sam Spiegelman, National Recruiting Analyst: Flip. Even though he visited Notre Dame and his best relationship overall is with Marcus Freeman, he has continued to visit Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and he’s considering other visits. I think the Sooners are becoming the team to beat, but A&M can’t be discounted.

Mike Singer, BlueandGold.com: Stick. I can’t say this with a ton of confidence because the only thing that’s been predictable about Bowen has been that he’s consistently taken trips to other schools, but I do believe he’ll stick with his Irish pledge. His visit to South Bend for the Clemson game seemed to help solidify his commitment.

Marshall Levenson, AggieScoop.com: Flip. With as many visits as he has taken and could take in the next few weeks, I doubt he sticks with Notre Dame. I do think he will flip, and it will come down to Texas A&M and Oklahoma.

5-star RB Cedric Baxter Jr. — Texas commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 43 (No. 22 in the On300)
The Skinny: Cedric Baxter Jr. was a one-time Florida State commit early in his recruitment, but pledged to Texas this summer over the Seminoles and others. But FSU hasn’t given up and recently hosted him for an official visit.

Chad Simmons, Director of Recruiting: Stick. It will be hard for some schools to give up on the No. 1 RB in the country until he signs, but Baxter’s relationship with Tashard Choice and the direction Sarkisian has the program going in has the Longhorns in a good position.

Gerry Hamilton, InsideTexas.com: Stick. Baxter has a tremendous relationship with Texas running backs coach Tashard Choice. As long as Choice is at Texas, you have to like the Longhorns chances. And there is a lot of opportunity at the position.

Michael Langston, Warchant.com: Stick. I do think Cedric still has some breaking down and thinking to do. Still, even with all the great things at FSU and location that his family loves, he committed to Texas for a reason. I haven’t heard enough from my end to move off a Texas prediction. So that’s the direction I currently lean right now.

4-star CB Bravion Rogers — Texas A&M commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 47
The Skinny: Bravion Rogers pledged to the Aggies in April before reopening his recruitment over the summer. After re-committing in August, he still hears from the likes of Texas, LSU and more.

Sam Spiegelman, National Recruiting Analyst: Stick. He has already reopened his recruitment and re-committed to A&M. He has strong relationships with the coaching staff, and while LSU could make a late run, I like where A&M stands.

Marshall Levenson, AggieScoop.com: Flip. He’s visiting Texas and hearing from LSU and others, and this could get very interesting. If he takes official visits to other schools, I think a flip could be in the works.

4-star LB Suntarine Perkins — Ole Miss commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 64
The Skinny: Suntarine Perkins was one of Ole Miss’ first commitments in the 2023 cycle and has remained in the fold for more than a year. Alabama has made a major run at him in the past six months, though.

Chad Simmons, Director of Recruiting: Stick. Alabama is in this. And if there is a flip, it will likely happen on Signing Day. Ole Miss has done a good job holding on to Perkins, and he will be a very tough flip from an in-state school late.

Zach Berry, OMSpirit.com: Stick. Alabama is not going away by any means but I think the pull to stay in state and play for Lane Kiffin is too much when it’s all said and done. He has a close relationship with Kelvin Bolden, Maurice Crum and Chris Partridge, and he knows how much he’s wanted and needed. 

Joseph Hastings, BamaInsider.com: Flip. I made a prediction for Perkins to flip to Bama back in the summer. A lot has changed since early July, which is when Perkins admitted that he came close to flipping to them. He’s been pro-Ole Miss on social media, but visited Alabama for the Texas A&M game and had nothing but positive things to say about that trip. 

4-star CB Jayvon Thomas — Texas A&M commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 72
The Skinny: Jayvon Thomas was another early commit for the Aggies, but he is still being pursued by a handful of schools, and the latest intel suggests he hasn’t fully shut things down.

Sam Spiegelman, National Recruiting Analyst: Stick. I’m not feeling as confident on him. He’s a quiet kid and has continuing to talk to other schools, including Alabama, LSU and TCU. His school has a strong history with TCU, and I think this could get interesting over the next couple weeks. But I think A&M has built a strong relationship with him.

Marshall Levenson, AggieScoop.com: Stick. He is being pursued by other programs and might even entertain them. But his relationships are very strong at Texas A&M, and I feel he sticks with the Aggies.

4-star WR DeAndre Moore Jr. — Louisville commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 92
The Skinny: DeAndre Moore Jr. is one of the prized recruits in Louisville’s first-ever top-20 class. But Georgia and Texas have both taken aim at flipping him, with each hosting him for official visits this month.

Chad Simmons, Director of Recruiting: Flip. It’s me taking the field vs. Louisville at this time. I like Georgia’s chances today. Texas will have him on campus this weekend. Louisville will not make it easy, but he will be very tough for the Cardinals to hold onto to.

Gerry Hamilton, InsideTexas.com: Flip. This is a recruitment that has been trending towards a flip for a few weeks. First the Georgia official last weekend, and now Texas this weekend. Texas has had some confidence here since the word of a visit to Austin got out publicly.

Jake Reuse, DawgsHQ.com: Flip. The real question here is not whether or not Moore flips, at least in my mind. The question is will it be Georgia, Texas, or somewhere else? Dawgs are in a great spot after his visit last weekend, but his trip to Austin is a must watch.

4-star WR Anthony Evans — Oklahoma commit

On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 259
The Skinny: Anthony Evans picked Oklahoma over Georgia in a back-and-forth battle between the two programs. Georgia hasn’t relented and got him on campus last weekend for a visit.

Chad Simmons, Director of Recruiting: Flip. This is a tough one because a day before Evans committed to Oklahoma, he was all Georgia. After visiting Georgia last weekend, the Bulldogs are trending (again). Let’s see if Georgia can close this time.

Sam Spiegelman, National Recruiting Analyst: Flip. It might be too early to tell, but Georgia has always been at or close to the top from the time that he officially visited. They’re in need for speed, and Todd Monken, the offensive coordinator, feels he can be an impact true freshman. He has a strong relationship with OU, but after visiting Athens again, I think the momentum is back with Georgia.

Jake Reuse, DawgsHQ.com: Flip. I thought Georgia would land Evans the first go round, but the Dawgs missed out in the eleventh hour. All intel suggests his visit this last weekend should move the needle back Georgia’s way. Don’t expect them to miss twice if that’s the case.