Takeaways from Preseason AP Poll: Overrated, underrated, teams facing pressure

Well, how about that?

In a season many (myself included) believe could be as crazy as ever with expanded conferences and the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, the 2024 Preseason AP Poll Top 25 was rather predictable?

At least it seems so. 

While I received pushback (a stunner I know!) on the Internet last week when I ranked Iowa, Kansas and USC in my projected AP Poll Top 25, and sure enough, all the programs checked into the back-half of the first AP Poll this season. 

In all, I nailed all 25 teams, and even correctly tabbed Louisville and Virginia Tech as the next two teams receiving votes.

Georgia (not Ohio State, where I thought the voters might get cute) was the overwhelming selection at No. 1 (46 of 62 first-place votes), with the Buckeyes coming in at No. 2 (15 first-pace votes) followed by new Big Ten foe Oregon (1 first-place vote). 

Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan and Florida State rounded out the Top 10. 

Overall, the first AP Poll of the 2024 season was very chalky. It included nine SEC schools, six Big Ten teams, five programs from the Big 12 (get ready for chaos!) and four members of the ACC (plus Notre Dame). Unlike year’s past, the preseason voters did not award a G5 team with a mandatory spot at 24 or 25.

Here are some takeaways from the inaugural poll this season, including overrated, underrated and teams facing pressure:

Overrated?

If this were time-stamped from two weeks ago, I wouldn’t be labeling Notre Dame as overrated at No. 7. Heck, I had the Irish at No. 9 just a few days ago, but the season-ending injury to projected left tackle Charlie Jagusah, coupled with the unknowns of Riley Leonard at quarterback, leads me to believe they should be slotted a few rungs lower. 

Considering how chalky the rankings are, there really aren’t any other egregiously slotted teams. Some will balk at USC or Texas A&M getting a preseason number next to their names, but you can make a case for both programs as Top 25 teams. In reality, teams ranked 15-30 are only marginally different anyways. 

Underrated?

I know Michigan had a school-record 13 players drafted and lost an all-time coach in Jim Harbaugh, but the Wolverines should not slotted behind Notre Dame and Penn State. Their No. 9 ranking is the lowest for a reigning national title team since 2011. 

Could Michigan be one of these preseason Top 10 teams that annually tumbles down the rankings when the actual games are played? Perhaps, but the Wolverines are just as likely to find themselves in contention for a spot in Indy come the first weekend of December, too. 

Elsewhere, Tennessee could be dubbed a tad underrated checking in at No. 15, but it’s not a glaring error even though I believe Nico Iamaleava and James Pearce could propel the Vols into the Top 10 by season’s end. More oddly was how the voters pegged the top contenders in the ACC. I was a bit surprised that Miami was five spots behind Clemson — and nine to Florida State — when all three programs are essentially a coin-flip to win the league this year. This is where (and I do get this logic) some voters penalize coaches like Mario Cristobal for failing to meet lofty expectations in season’s past. 

Lastly, with the recent injury to Texas’ 5-star tailback CJ Baxter, there’s a case to be made that Alabama should be ranked above the Longhorns to start the 2024 season. The reports out of Tuscaloosa have been glowing during training camp, while suddenly Texas is dealing with legitimate depth concerns at a critical position. 

Pressure’s on, Ole Miss and Penn State

The Rebels are ranked just outside the Top 5 for the first time in nearly 55 years. Lane Kiffin has gone all-in on the 2024 season, and with it comes real pressure to deliver such results. This might be the most talented Ole Miss team of all-time, but can the Rebels beat the big dogs of the sport?

Similarly, the 12-team playoff was made for programs like Penn State, who no longer have to worry about playing second-fiddle to the big brother’s in its conference. If James Franklin can’t seriously compete for the Big Ten title with this team (and this schedule — just two preseason ranked opponents), then Happy Valley will quickly become Consternation City. 

Good luck, Georgia

The Bulldogs were the undisputed top-ranked team by AP voters, which could be a sign that another program is going to win the national championship in 2024. In the last 20 preseason AP Poll Top 25s, the No. 1 ranked team failed to win the national title 18 times — including Georgia last season. Only USC (2004) and Alabama (2007) have overcome the curse. 

The Bulldogs’ schedule is as tough as advertised with four games against preseason Top 15 teams (Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee). 

Boise State and Liberty take poll position 

No Group of 5 team was ranked in the preseason poll, but both the Broncos and Flames received votes just outside the Top 25. 

Memphis, UTSA, Tulane as App. State did as well, so you’re looking at the likeliest set of contenders for the coveted automatic berth in the 12-team playoff for the highest-ranked G5 conference winner. 

I tabbed Boise State in my preseason 12-team projection to claim such a spot.