TaxSlayer Gator Bowl point spread: Picking Clemson Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Clemson (8-4) and Kentucky (7-5) will meet for the first time since their last bowl matchup in 2009 when they play in the Gator Bowl to start the schedule on Friday.

Now, with the Tigers and Wildcats set for a cat fight, On3’s Andy Staples and Ralph Russo of the Associated Press have broken it down and made their picks for the contest.

How to watch Clemson vs. Kentucky

Time: 12 p.m. ET on December 29th
Channel: ESPN or ESPN+, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)

To start, Staples set the table by laying out some notable statuses in the game, specifically for Clemson and on their defense.

“Phil Mafah and Whill Shipley are playing for Clemson. But outside of the star running backs? Some of the more talented players are not there for Clemson,” said Staples. “Jeremiah Trotter, Nate Wiggins, Ruke Orhorhoro not on the defense because they’ve opted out. Xavier Thomas is playing.”

Even with some of them out, though, Staples highlighted the Kentucky offense versus the Clemson defense as a key to the game. He circled the importance of Devin Leary after a so-so season as the Wildcats’ quarterback, especially since he has come across, and struggled against, the Tigers before.

“Here’s an interesting stat. Kentucky QB Devin Leary? Three games against Clemson while at NC State,” said Staples. “Now, granted, I just mentioned that Clemson is not a full-strength defense here. But he never had better than 5.7 yards per attempt. He threw for four touchdowns in 2021 but it took 44 attempts to get 238 yards – not an efficient game. It was tough, he got sacked a lot.”

“This will be interesting to see him,” Staples said. “Can he exercise those demons?”

According to Russo, Leary won’t be able to and, therefore, Clemson will be his outright winner of the Gator Bowl to give them five straight victories to end the year after an underwhelming start. However, with a 4.5-point spread, he isn’t certain tthe Tigers will cover based on how he sees the game playing out.

“I understand a lot of that really good Clemson defense – and it is a really good Clemson defense – isn’t at this game. But I’ll take a really low-scoring game. I’ll grab Clemson,” said Russo. “Those points are a little scary in a low-scoring game. It could be 14-10, it could be 17-13 or something like that. But I’ll ride the Clemson defense, I’ll ride the fact that they have a few more offensive pieces there.”

TRY FOR FREE: Fubo’s holiday offer just kicked off – For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans ($20 off the first and second months)

In the end, Staples agreed by taking Clemson to secure the win in Jacksonville. With enough pieces to work with and some overall doubt in Kentucky, he has the Tigers earning their ninth win of the campaign to end on a high note.

“Clemson seems to have figured some stuff out,” said Staples. “I do think that they’ve got a core group that seems like they know what they are now.”

“Kentucky? Like you said, they’re kind of funky other than the Louisville game,” Staples said. “They’ve had games where they put it all together. But a lot of that was against teams that could not withstand them on the ground. I think Clemson will be able to control them a bit on the ground.”