Telltale sign: If Tennessee beats Georgia, Josh Heupel would inch closer to joining an illustrious list of second-year head coaches in the SEC

No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Georgia this weekend has all the billings to be the game of the 2022 season, and while there are storylines galore, Saturday’s outcome could place head coach Josh Heupel one step closer to joining an illustrious list and signaling a strong telltale sign for the program’s future.

Win in Athens, and Tennessee is virtually guaranteed a trip to Atlanta, meaning Heupel will be mentioned along the likes of Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and Kirby Smart. 

“These are the type of games you come to Tennessee to play because you want to be on this type of stage,”  he said. “You want to play in front of an audience that is going to be captivated by these two football teams.”

Well, the stage is set. 

The SEC created divisions in 1992, and after veteran coaches, Gene Stallings, Steve Spurrier and Phillip Fulmer traded championships for several years, a very notable trend has emerged over the last 20 years. 

Since 2000, only two SEC coaches have won a conference title without at least getting to the championship game by Year 2 — both from LSU.

Les Miles in 2007 (Year 3) and Ed Orgeron in 2019 (Year 3).

Here’s a rundown of the last 22 years:

Tommy Tuberville, Auburn (2000)

Mark Richt, Georgia (2002) 

Nick Saban, LSU (2003)

Urban Meyer, Florida (2006) 

Gene Chizik, Auburn (2010) 

Nick Saban, Alabama (2008)

Gus Malzahn, Auburn (2013, Year 1)

Kirby Smart, Georgia (2017)

Tuberville didn’t win an SEC title at Auburn until 2004, but he had the Tigers in Atlanta in Year 2. Likewise for Saban at Alabama, who lost to Meyer and the Gators in 2008 before getting revenge in Year 3 in 2009. 

The only SEC head coach to reach the title game by Year 2 but never ultimately win the conference crown was Jim McElwain at Florida. 

Barring a stunning November upset to the likes of South Carolina or Missouri, Josh Heupel is a game away from inching oh-so-close to joining an exclusive group. 

Perhaps it seems arbitrary, but history ain’t lying here. If you get to Atlanta by Year 2 as an SEC head coach, it’s a strong sign your program will probably win a conference championship. And maybe more. 

Only Tuberville, who did have an undefeated season, and Richt, who won multiple SEC titles, didn’t win a national championship. 

Heupel’s foe Saturday Kirby Smart went 8-5 in his first season as the head coach at Georgia. A year later, the Bulldogs won the SEC Championship and were a 2nd-and-26 away from winning a national title. Three years later, they ended 40 years of 1980s jokes. 

Second-year success stories don’t start and end in the SEC, either, with some of college football’s most famous recent head coaches experiencing major leaps in Year 2 at their respective programs. 

Josh Heupel starred in one of the most notable examples, leading Oklahoma to a national title in 2000 — the second season of Bob Stoops’ tenure. The Sooners were 5-7 in Stoops’ first season before Heupel, who transferred from junior college, led Oklahoma to a perfect 13-0 in Year 2. 

Elsewhere:

Former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel, who like Heupel, went 7-5 in his inaugural season, and then led the Buckeyes to a perfect 14-0 national title campaign in 2002. 

Former USC head coach Pete Carroll went 6-6 in Year 1 with the Trojans before winning the Pac-10 Championship in 2002 with an 11-2 year. 

Former TCU head coach Gary Patterson struggled in his first season in Fort Worth (6-6), but he won 10 games the following year to jumpstart a long run with the Horned Frogs.

So that’s what’s at stake Saturday in Athens. 

“Obviously we’ve taken some huge strides,” Heupel said. 

“Next week is another big test, but one we’re looking forward to.”

No one expected Tennessee to be this good in Heupel’s second year, and the former UCF head coach already has the Vols in the midst of a special, special season. With the nation’s best offense and a defense gaining confidence, there’s been plenty of 2019 LSU comparisons with Tennessee, and that’s fine and fun, but again, Orgeron was an outlier in SEC history. He did that in Year 3.

Heupel has already shattered expectations on Rocky Top, and regardless of what happens against Georgia, Tennessee looks likely to win double-digit games for the first time in 15 years. He’s changed the culture. He’s made the second-year leap with a veteran roster headlined by the Heisman Trophy favorite at quarterback in Hendon Hooker.

But there’s a chance for more. And history suggests that more really does mean more in the SEC for second-year head coaches who get to Atlanta. 

Like feels like ’98 more.