Ten games that will determine the Big Ten Championship in 2024

Big Ten divisions are gone, and so are the days of lopsided Big Ten Championship games — at least, we hope. The league’s title game has been decided by more than one score every year since 2017, and often it’s been hard to watch. For instance, each of the last three years, the margin of victory has been at least 20 points.

Lucas Oil Stadium should be the site of a more entertaining Big Ten Championship this time around. The top-two squads in the now-18-team conference will square off for what’s likely to be a top-four seed in the 12-team College Football Playoff and, in turn, a first-round bye.

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Before that, we’ve got a jam-packed regular season to get through. On3 is ranking the 10 games that will determine the Big Ten Championship matchup in 2024.

Texas at Michigan, Sept. 7

Strap in because we’re going to learn a lot about Michigan the first four weeks of the season. For one, head coach Sherrone Moore could be facing a show-cause penalty, as well as a one-game suspension, for violating NCAA rules, as first reported on Aug. 4 by ESPN, which obtained a draft of the NCAA’s notice of allegations (NOA). That draft is subject to change, but Moore allegedly deleted a 52-text thread with ex-Michigan staffer Connor Stalions the same day media reports surfaced about Stalions spearheading the Wolverines’ alleged in-person, advanced-scouting scheme. Moore is at risk of having committed a Level 2 violation, according to the NOA, ESPN reported earlier this month.

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So it’s possible Moore could miss a game to start the year. Either way, his team then has to play a pair of preseason AP Top 25 opponents in September, starting with No. 4 Texas on Sept. 7. The Longhorns are headed to The Big House, where redshirt junior quarterback Quinn Ewers will face Michigan, or as he cunningly referred to at SEC Media Days this summer, “The Team Up North.” Ewers spent the first season of his college career at Ohio State — he played only two snaps for the Buckeyes, but he picked up the language surrounding the sport’s greatest rivalry. After sniffing a national title game appearance last year, Ewers will finally get a chance to face Michigan, an immediate test for the new-look Wolverines.

USC at Michigan, Sept. 21

Two weeks after playing Texas, Michigan will host another marquee opponent: USC. New to the Big Ten, the Trojans will instantly get a taste of the physicality its new conference is known for. If the Wolverines lose their Week 2 showdown against the Longhorns, the pressure will be on for them to take care of business versus USC, which clocked in at No. 23 in the preseason AP Top 25. Two losses in September, and Michigan might have to run the table to earn a spot in the CFP.

On the other hand, the Trojans are another Big Ten contender this season. Upsetting the defending national champions on the road in the first month of post-realignment-football would be a statement for head coach Lincoln Riley and his squad. USC kicks off the season against LSU in Las Vegas, but the trip to Ann Arbor marks the Trojans’ first Big Ten game — yeah, that’s quite the conference opener.

Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12

Oct. 12 is circled on college football calendars everywhere but especially in the Big Ten. Ohio State-Oregon is the headliner. Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, will play host to one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the year– a matchup that could be played twice or maybe even three times this season. The Buckeyes and Ducks are currently No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in the preseason AP Top 25. They are also the top-two favorites to win the Big Ten, in that same order.

Oregon threw a wrench in Ohio State’s 2021 season three years ago when quarterback Anthony Brown Jr. and running back CJ Verdell teamed up to expose a sub-standard Buckeyes defense in Ohio Stadium and leave Columbus with a 35-28 win. Now Ohio State is looking to avenge that loss with a road victory of its own, this time equipped with what could be the best defense in the country.

Penn State at USC, Oct. 12

Penn State hasn’t won the Big Ten, or played in a Big Ten Championship, since 2016. If the Nittany Lions are to get back to the conference title game this year, the program is going to have to start delivering when it matters most. In the first 10 years of head coach James Franklin’s tenure, Penn State is 12-26 against ranked opponents, including a meager 3-17 versus top-10 opponents. Last year, the Nittany Lions lost three of their four games against ranked opponents.

As of now, USC is one of only two ranked opponents on Penn State’s 2024 schedule. The other is Ohio State. Franklin’s squad has lost seven straight games to the Buckeyes — beating them will be a tall task, even at home, but taking down the Trojans on the road is doable. Conversely, USC gets another early-season crack at a signature Big Ten win. The last time the Nittany Lions and Trojans faced off, we got a Rose Bowl that featured a three-touchdown Saquon Barkley performance but also a 14-point USC fourth quarter comeback, complete with a game-winning field goal as time expired.

Ohio State at Penn State, Nov. 2

As mentioned above, 2016 was a special season for Penn State. Perhaps not so coincidentally, it was the last time the Nittany Lions defeated the Buckeyes (thanks to Grant Haley and his 60-yard touchdown return on a blocked field goal with less than five minutes to go). Arguably no program benefits more from the Big Ten ditching divisions than Penn State. The Nittany Lions were stuck in the Big Ten East with Ohio State and Michigan. Despite posting five 10-win seasons at the helm, Franklin is a combined 4-16 versus those two conference powers and now-former division nuisances.

Penn State no longer has to play Ohio State and Michigan annually, although the Nittany Lions still have the Buckeyes on the schedule this year and next year. Luckily for Franklin and Co., they get Ohio State at home, where that 2016 magic happened. By the way, this game will have even higher stakes if the Buckeyes fall to Oregon on the road on Oct. 12.

Oregon at Michigan, Nov. 2

Oregon gets to host Ohio State, but the Ducks have to travel to Ann Arbor to play Michigan, their only other preseason AP Top 25 opponent this year. Oregon and Michigan have gone head-to-head just twice in the 21st century: The Wolverines escaped Eugene with a 31-27 win in 2003 and then handled the Ducks, 39-7, in The Big House in 2007.

This is Oregon’s hardest road game on the schedule, although the Ducks do have to play in Wisconsin’s always-hostile Camp Randall Stadium on Nov. 16. For Michigan, it could be a chance to gain serious ground in the Big Ten Championship race and/or stay in the hunt for a CFP berth. Oregon wideout Tez Johnson versus Michigan cornerback Will Johnson? Sign me up. In general, watching Ducks offensive coordinator Will Stein and former UCF and Oklahoma star quarterback Dillon Gabriel try to navigate the Wolverines’ defense will be fun.

Wisconsin at Iowa, Nov. 9

Don’t sleep on Iowa. The Hawkeyes have had a top-five defense in the Big Ten each of the last nine seasons. That should be no different in 2024. How far Iowa goes this season hinges on whether new offensive coordinator Tim Lester can get his unit to pull its weight. To say the Hawkeyes’ schedule is favorable would be an understatement. They have just one preseason AP Top 25 opponent, and that’s Ohio State. The rest of the Hawkeyes’ games are winnable.

Of their games against currently unranked opponents, two stick out, starting with a Nov. 9 showdown against Wisconsin. The Heartland Trophy will be on the line. But, more importantly, this game could have Big Ten Championship implications, perhaps for both parties. The Badgers are a league dark horse. If Miami transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke clicks in offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s “Air Raid” system, and if defensive coordinator Mike Tressel’s crew — which ranked 39th nationally in yards per game allowed last season — takes a step forward, Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin could make some noise. Except, those are big “if”s, especially during a season when the Badgers have to play five preseason AP Top 25 opponents, including Alabama, USC, Penn State and Oregon.

Nebraska at Iowa, Nov. 29

OK, the second Iowa game against a currently unranked opponent worth noting is a Nov. 29 matchup versus Nebraska. Speaking of Big Ten dark horses, the Cornhuskers fall into that category. Nebraska could start (gulps) … 7-0. Stay with me here: The Huskers open the year with games against UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana. At quarterback, Nebraska’s starting true freshman Dylan Raiola. On one hand, Raiola’s a unanimous five-star prospect from the 2024 class. On the other hand, he’s a true freshman. Factor in offensive tackle and cornerback depth questions, plus the risk of continued turnover issues, and it’s totally possible the Huskers lose a few games in that span.

Regardless, Nebraska is a sneaky tough opponent for anyone, including Iowa late in the season. At that point in the year, the Hawkeyes could be playing for not only a shot at the Big Ten Championship but also a spot in the CFP.

Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 30

This one’s a no-brainer. It’s a game that’s decided the Big Ten champion each of the last three seasons. It’s The Game. Michigan has won three straight meetings in the series for the first time since 1995-97. A horde of Ohio State seniors came back (1) to win a national title but (2) to take down Michigan and win a Big Ten title along the way.

This year, the rivalry is back in Columbus, where Michigan scored a runaway victory back in 2022. At the time, that was the Wolverines’ first road win in the series since 2000. No matter what Michigan’s record is entering Thanksgiving Weekend, Nov. 30 will mean everything for Ohio State — and especially for Ryan Day, who is just 1-3 against the Wolverines as the Buckeyes’ head coach. Ohio State can win the Big Ten without beating Michigan this year, but that league title wouldn’t be as fulfilling for Buckeyes fans.

Washington at Oregon, Nov. 30

The Pac-12 as we know it is gone. But, man, good thing Washington and Oregon are together in the Big Ten because last year’s thrillers between the Huskies and Ducks were must-watch TV. The teams’ midseason matchup ended with Oregon missing a potential game-tying field goal as time expired. Then, in the Pac-12 title game, the Ducks pulled within a field goal of the Huskies with 2:14 to go — Oregon just couldn’t get a stop on its subsequent defensive series.

Washington probably isn’t going to be competing for a conference title this season. The Huskies are 124th in the country in returning production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. And new head coach Jedd Fisch has some massive shoes to fill left by Kalen DeBoer, who is now at Alabama. But the Huskies added some nice offensive pieces, namely former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers, and so maybe they can make their rivalry game interesting. Depending on how the rest of the season goes for Oregon, this could be a win-and-in game for the Ducks, at least as far as their Big Ten title game hopes are concerned.