Tennessee-Florida: Why the stakes are high for both head coaches Josh Heupel and Billy Napier

Tennessee–Florida doesn’t have the national juice it did back in the mid-1990s, but Saturday’s showdown still offers plenty of intriguing storylines for the two SEC rivals. 

* Can Tennessee’s talented tailback triumvirate (Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson) run on Florida’s revamped defensive line?

* Which Joe Milton shows up? Will Gators DC Austin Armstrong dial up crazy blitz packages to force Milton into potential mistakes, or will he protect UF’s secondary by making the Vols maintain long, sustained drives and red zone conversations? 

* Who wins the tempo battle: Tennessee’s go-go attack or Florida’s plodding style?

* Is Tennessee’s defense for real? Can the Gators protect Graham Mertz against the Vols’ aggressive pass rush? Is Mertz capable of hitting a couple of chunk plays? Can Florida even score three touchdowns?

All are interesting matchups that will determine the outcome Saturday night in the Swamp, but narratively, the most compelling pregame storyline is what this game means for the two head coaches. 

Every coach wants to win every game. Duh, right? But there are certain games coaches need to win, and that’s exactly what we have Saturday night for Josh Heupel and Billy Napier — just for completely opposite reasons. 

THE STAKES FOR JOSH HEUPEL AGAINST FLORIDA

Tennessee comes to Florida the better team. The ranked team. The more talented team. 

In a little over two+ seasons in Knoxville, Josh Heupel has totally changed the tenor around the Vols’ program. With a fast-and-furious offense and an high-wire defense, Tennessee is fun again. Heupel exceeded expectations in Year 1 and then had the Vols ranked No. 1 nationally in 2022 after beating top-ranked Alabama. 

Heupel has signature wins against LSU, Alabama and Clemson. He also became the second coach since Phillip Fulmer to beat Florida last year. 

Now he needs to do it again. 

While Texas, Florida State and Miami are all in a race to be to “BACK” first in 2023, Tennessee got that party started last season. After 15 years of mostly hibernating in oblivion as a national power, the Vols are now a Top 10 team with championship expectations. 

That means you win Saturday night in the Swamp — 20 years of misery be damned. Heupel is tasked with doing what several of his predecessors could not — take a better team to Gainesville and walk away a winner. 

There’s a certain voodoo on the Third Saturday in September. Weird things happen in this rivalry game. Tennessee had the better team several times against Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain, and the Vols went a combined 1-6 anyway. They couldn’t beat Dan Mullen (0-4), either. In the last decade, the Gators have had four losing seasons — and still beat Tennessee three times.

Saturday night is a chance for Heupel to cement that things are different. That the paradigm between the two rivals has changed. That the Vols weren’t some one-hit wonder, but a program that is on the continued ascent.  

“Florida might not be where they were a few years ago, but they’re still Florida, they’re still going to be a good team, it’s still the Swamp on a Saturday night in a huge game,” Dan Mullen (snarkily and hilariously) said on ESPN’s Matt Barrie Show before picking the Vols to win.

THE STAKES FOR BILLY NAPIER AGAINST TENNESSEE

For Billy Napier, Saturday’s game is an opportunity to cool a pressure-cooker that’s way too hot for a coach just 15 games (7-8) into his tenure. 

There’s no mistaking that Napier has a meticulously thought-out plan on how to return Florida back to its old glory. He has a proof of concept. At Louisiana-Lafayette. The blueprint isn’t the problem. It’s that Napier’s process can’t be microwaved, especially in the SEC.  

Will Napier be given the runway to see his patient plan through? 

Earlier this summer, I sat down with Napier, who bluntly stated, “There’s no magical potion. We’ve just got to do the work.”

He’s not wrong, but thus far, the ‘work’ has yielded little results on the scoreboard.

Losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky in 2022 were bad. He was the first UF coach since Charlie Pell to lose to all of Florida’s rivals (Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State) in the same season.

Despite low extent expectations, things were supposed to be different in Year 2. Napier teased it himself, telling me, “I like our team. I can say that loud enough. Nobody knows besides our people the work that’s been done since January. … That’s what makes this game fun, right? Especially when nobody thinks you can do it.”

Well, the skepticism only grew louder after Florida’s season-opening face-plant at Utah. The Gators committed all sorts of penalties, couldn’t score in the red zone and mostly looked poorly coached — losing a game they absolutely could’ve won. 

So, Billy Napier needs this game. 

He needs the goodwill to hose down any hot seat scuttle (silly or not). He needs to beat Tennessee because Florida coaches — good or not — beat the Vols. A win over a rival would endear Napier to a frustrated fan base, engender more confidence on Florida’s 2023 team (which isn’t even expected to make a bowl game) and provide more ammunition for a very strong 2024 recruiting class. 

So there’s a lot at stake Saturday — for both head coaches. The nostalgia for the times when these two Top 5 teams were battling it out for SEC East supremacy is over, but that doesn’t mean 2023 Tennessee-Florida doesn’t have a lot at stake.